On Friday, the NHL released the names of the three finalists for the Hart Trophy, given to the player that scores the most points that the PHWA deems the “most valuable to his team”. The three finalists are Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, and the greatest player in Tampa Bay Lightning franchise history – Nikita Kucherov. Those names aren’t exactly shocking, and quite frankly seem to be among the finalists year after year. There was some talk that Macklin Celebrini might slip into the conversation this year, but San Jose’s swoon at the end of the season and eventual failure to make the playoffs doomed his case.
For the three finalists, a strong case can be made for each and everyone of them. And, to be honest, it’s pretty much the same case. When they are racking up the points, their teams win. When they don’t, their teams tend to lose. MacKinnon was probably the most consistent of the three, but finished with the fewest points (only 127) but he was the only one of the three to hit 50 goals. McDavid finished the season strong with 13 points over his last 7 games to take the Art Ross Trophy away from Kucherov (138 points to 130).
As for the mercurial Kucherov, he started slow (by his standards), was absolutely super-nova hot for a large portion of the season, than faded a bit at the end (by his standards). He ended up with 130 points (44 goals, 86 assists), the second highest point total of his career behind the 144 he put up in 2023-24. The 130 points were 42 more than the next player on the Lightning roster (Jake Guentzel’s 88), which is a pretty healthy margin. The gap between MacKinnon and the next best Avalanche was 27 points (Martin Necas finished with 100 points) while McDavid had a 41-point edge on Leon Draisaitl.
Would it be a surprise if any one of the three is named the Hart Trophy winner? Honestly, no. At this point, there is a little bit of nit-picking involved, or else a deep dive into the non-counting stats to make a case. The three finalists were also the top three point-getters at even-strength while McDavid and Kucherov were also top-six players on the power play (MacKinnon was 15th in the league as the Avalanche were somehow 27th in power play this season).
What makes Kucherov an interesting case is that despite being a MVP finalist for the third straight season, there has been a slightly-louder-than-a-whisper call for him to be traded (yes, we were being hyperbolic in the “everyone wants to trade him” part of the headline, but it’s the off-season for the Lightning, we need the clicks, baby!). Most of the talk was generated by the speculation of The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, who covered the Lightning’s abbreviated playoff run for the media conglomerate.
In his “What’s Next for the Lightning” post, LeBrun wrote:
Which brings us to a wild thought: Would BriseBois consider moving Kucherov?
“Kucherov had his moments in this series, but he was held pointless in the last three games and overall, his frustration showed throughout. That wasn’t Hart Trophy Kucherov in this series.
He has one year on his contract next season before becoming a UFA in July 2027. Kucherov does not have a full no-move clause, just a modified no-trade clause with a 10-team list. Odds are the Lightning’s top priority is, in fact, to extend Kucherov, who turns 33 in June. But I will just point out, BriseBois has never been afraid to swing big. That would be one heck of a chip to push into the market.
And there might be some big-name players on the move in trades this summer. And Tampa often ends up being top 5 on many a star player’s list. Just saying.
Whatever BriseBois decides to do, he won’t be hesitant. That’s his track record: Identify a need, and attack it.”
Look, we get it. It’s been a rough few postseasons for the Maykop Magician. In the Lightning’s four consecutive first round exits he has 2 goals in 23 games and “just” 21 points. That’s a far cry from the 93 points he put up in 71 games during the Lightning’s three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances. His lack of elite production is right up there among the top reasons as to why the Lightning haven’t been able to advance into the second round lately.
There is also the knee-jerk reaction to blow everything up when the season ends quicker than anyone expected. Blowing up a franchise usually starts at the top, and that’s where Nikita Kucherov resides for the Lightning. If someone believes that the Lightning’s recent woes are deeply embedded in the heart of the team, then trading the player at core of the core makes sense, right?
As LeBrun points out, Kucherov has one year left on his current deal. For a team acquiring the winger this summer, having a full season to woo him into an extension is attractive. It would be better to have him for a full season than to pick him up at the trade deadline and risk losing him for nothing after a couple of months.
There is always a fear, one that is irrational in 99% of the cases, that a star player will walk from their current team for nothing. Seriously, how often has that happened, especially in the salary-cap era? Look at everyone that re-signed this past season (including McDavid) instead of becoming unrestricted free agents. As ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski has pointed out on more than one occasion – no one likes to move their stuff, and that includes professional athletes.
Yes, it’s frustrating to watch Kucherov struggle, especially in the playoffs, but no one reading this blog, writing this blog, or who has no idea that this blog even exists, is harder on Nikita Kucherov than Nikita Kucherov. Critics can point to his body language and frustration when things aren’t going his way, but it’s not directed at his teammates – it’s almost all self-loathing when plays aren’t pulled off (okay, some of it is frustration at getting whacked/slashed/cross-checked every time he touches the puck). The bar he sets for his performance is higher than anything fans or coaches can set for him.
Still, his recent post-season struggles don’t justify wanting to trade him, especially considering there isn’t really a way to get fair value in any deal for him. Outside of a McDavid-for-Kucherov deal, there isn’t a trade where the Lightning would come out a better team in the present if they dealt their soon-to-be-franchise leader in points. It would take an absolute Godfather deal for Julien BriseBois to even consider moving him. As in multiple first-round picks, Grade A prospects, and NHL-ready young players. taking a deal like that would signal that the re-tool is officially on, something the Lightning general manager doesn’t seem willing to believe just yet.
It is likely that the Lightning are going to sign him at some point, possibly as early as this summer. Mr. BriseBois is already on record stating that he foresees Kucherov “staying in our organization for a very long time, hopefully till the end of his career.”
The Lightning should have the cap space to make that happen and he seems to enjoy playing in Tampa. So why hasn’t a deal been agreed to yet (other than the obvious he’s not eligible to sign one until July 1)? Well, the structure of an extension could be tricky. Do they go long-term, lower AAV?
When the Lightning signed him to an eight-year extension in the summer of 2018 (a year before his then-current deal was set to expire) the $9.5 million average annual value was roughly 11% of their total cap hit. It was a steal at the time, and only got better once the cap started going up. With the salary cap increasing to $104 million nest season a similar cap hit would be about $11.44 million. Honestly, a seven-year, $80 million deal would be a great value for the Lightning (especially during the first couple of seasons).
That would tie him with Erik Karlsson, William Nylander, and Martin Necas for the 11th highest cap hit in 2026-27. Elias Pettersson ($11.6 million), Kyle Connor ($12 million), and Mitch Marner ($12 million) are among the ten players with high cap hits. As the years go on, and the cap (hopefully) increases, a cap-hit around $11 million will just get better, especially if Kucherov continues to produce anywhere near the level he is at right now.
Yes, Kucherov will turn 34 the summer his new deal kicks in, but his skills aren’t going to be hampered by age. He doesn’t rely on speed and power to rack up his point totals. Granted, a seven-year deal would put him at 42 by the time it ends, so maybe they agree on a shorter-term, higher AAV deal. That being said, there is no reason to think that a 39-year-old Nikita Kucherov won’t be able to put up 100 points, right?
Sidney Crosby is a point-per-game player at 38, Alex Ovechkin scored 32 goals at 40, and Evgeni Malkin had 61 points in 56 games at 39. Aging curves aren’t like they used to be, especially for higher-end players. This past season, six players aged 33-37 had 70+ point seasons, and not a one of them have the pedigree that Kucherov had. So, he should be productive for at least a few more seasons.
The puck is in his rink when it comes to how long he wants to play. Does he want to play until he’s 40? If so, does he think the Lightning will be competitive that long? If he thinks the Lightning’s window is only open for a few more seasons does he sign something like a four-year, $52 million deal? Is $13 million a season too much for the Lightning to pay? An argument can be made that it is not.
Signing aging players to big money extensions rarely works out, but Nikita Kucherov is the exception to that rule. While it’s fun to think about what kind of return a player of his caliber would generate (and don’t think we won’t do it at some point this season) it’s not very likely to happen. Fans will be yelling “Kuuuuuuuuuuch” next season, and hopefully for many seasons to come.
The key to getting the best out of the future hall-of-famer will be finding ways to surround him with younger talent. So, maybe the Lightning look to move out one of their other top-six forwards for a younger, skilled player. Which player might that be? Well, stick around and we’ll posit some thoughts down the line a bit.
