Let’s start this off by stating the chances of Steven Stamkos ending up in Tampa between now and next Friday are extremely low. If we were betting people, we would put it at a 17.5% chance, but it’s an off day, it’s the height of trade deadline craziness, and you’re probably bored at work on a Friday, so why not spend a few minutes diving a little deeper into a Stamkosian reunion.
[Ed. Note. After this was published Steven Stamkos himself clarified the situation by stating that there was “zero chance” he’d be willing to wave his no-trade clause. So, for now, the rest of this discussion is pretty moot, but it’s still a fun conversation to have.]
For those who missed it, or don’t subscribe to The Athletic, Pierre LeBrun kicked off his latest NHL trade rumblings article with some speculation about the Nashville Predators. The Preds are currently on a bit of a heater and have worked their way back into the playoff picture as they linger two points behind Utah for the second Wild Card spot in the West. The Wild Card is really their only path to the playoffs as Colorado, Minnesota, and Dallas have all but locked up the three postseason spots in the central.
So, it’s not 100% on the table that Nashville is going to be a seller at the deadline, which, to his credit, LeBrun mentions in his article. However, if they do decide to part ways with some of their veterans like Ryan O’Reilly, Jonathan Marchessault, and yes, Steven Stamkos, LeBrun speculates that Stamkos’ trade destinations will be extremely limited.
With a full no-movement clause in his current contract, Stamkos holds the hammer in terms of any type of transaction, and according to LeBron, he’s only willing to wave it for a few spots – Dallas, Minnesota, and yes, Tampa. Comfort with the organization and a potential to win another Stanley Cup would be the deciding factors in any deal according the long-time NHL insider. He writes,
“The 36-year-old winger, having a renaissance offensive year, likes Nashville and isn’t necessarily looking to get out of town. But he’s also a savvy veteran who has been around and understands the business. If the Predators start selling parts and approach him with trade scenarios, he’ll be prepared for that conversation.
As far as I understand it, Stamkos would have a very short list of teams he’d accept a trade to. It would have to be a legitimate contender and a good spot for his family.”
So, keep in mind, this isn’t a situation where Stamkos is coming out and asking for a trade. In fact, it’s not even a situation where Nashville has asked him to wave his NMC. We’re squarely and firmly in the land of speculation.
We know why the Lightning would be a destination for Stamkos, but why would Tampa Bay be interested in bringing their former captain back? It was a messy split two summers ago, and the team has fared fairly well in his absence (at least during the regular season). Well, despite the fact that he is two years older, his play this season shows that he isn’t slowing down and his skillset fills some of the needs the Lightning are looking for to strengthen their team for a playoff run.
After a tough first year in Nashville, Stamkos has rebounded to being the type of player he was in Tampa Bay for most of his career. He’s breaking even on defense at even strength while providing top-level offense and is a terror on the power play.
Yeah, he’s not going to win the Selke, but was he ever? A team doesn’t bring Steven Stamkos in to improve their defense. The question would be if the surrounding characters on the squad can offset whatever defensive deficiencies he would bring to the table. His possession numbers have been okay this season with Nashville having the better of play in terms of scoring chances (52.93%) and high-danger chances (56.42%).
Would this even work out in regards to the salary cap? After all, one of the reasons he went to Nashville was because the Lightning couldn’t/wouldn’t match the four-year, $32 million deal that the Predators offered him. At $8 million a season for two more years after this, does he fit into the Lightning’s cap structure. The answer is yes, with a couple of sine qua nons.
- Nashville has to take a contract off of their hands. Most likely the remainder of Oliver Bjorkstrand’s $5.4 million cap hit for this season.
- Nashville has to eat a portion of Stamkos’ remaining cap hit. For our purposes we used 33% or roughly $2.64 million. At that number, it can work for this season and moving forward.
That begs the question – what do the Lightning possess that is worth $2.64 million of future cap space for the Nashville Predators? Will a 2028 first-round pick entice them? Maybe, but it would also likely take one of the Lightning’s top prospects in Conor Geekie or Sam O’Reilly to really peak their interest. Is that enough to sway them over what Minnesota or Dallas, to use the two examples LeBrun mentioned, has to offer? At the minimum they’re probably asking for at least one of those prospects, the 2028 first-round, and another higher pick or prospect in order to eat a portion of the contract.
Now let’s look at it through the Julien BriseBois lens. If that’s what Nashville is asking for, is it a deal he would regret turning down if the Lightning don’t win the Stanley Cup. Does adding Steven Stamkos make the team better this year, and in the future? An argument could be made for saying yes.
The Lightning could probably survive that type of offer. With the glaring exceptions of Darren Raddysh this summer and Nikita Kucherov the next summer, their roster is pretty much set and there aren’t too many other players that would demand a big increase in salary (especially if Geekie goes to Nashville in the deal). With Stamkos in the fold and everyone healthy, it’s not a bad looking line-up.
With the exception of Curtis Douglas and Darren Raddysh, that line-up could also be what the Lightning start the 2026-27 season with as all of the other players are under contract for at least another season.
Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli can offset Stamkos’ defensive liabilities and the Lightning can roll two offensive lines that will give opposing coaches a difficult decision to match up against. The Nick Paul line becomes a tough line to play against that can also chip in some offense.
As for the power play? Well, just roll Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh, Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Jake Guentzel for the full two minutes and see what happens. Imagine having to be a penalty killer and having to decide between blocking Raddysh’s shot or sliding over to block a Stamkos one-timer? Good luck with that.
Stamkos also gives the Lightning a right-hand forward to take face-offs. On the season he’s at 55.9% overall including 53.33% on the power play. Those are numbers that would help them keep the puck in the zone.
Obviously, there are drawbacks to a reunion. Starting with committing resources to a 36-year-old forward who, while has been okay at 5v5, is likely to continue to become more of a one-dimensional player moving forward. Even at less than $6 million a year, that’s a significant portion of the cap to eat up with an aging player.
The Lightning have spent the last two seasons working to improve their 5v5 play, and quite frankly, have done an excellent job. With the importance of even-strength play in the playoffs, can Stamkos hold his own when they need him to and not allow their opponents too many chances? It’s not like the Lightning are struggling to score right now in any aspect of the game (especially with Brayden Point back in the line-up).
While we mentioned that Nashville is generating more scoring chances and high-danger chances when Stamkos is on the ice at 5v5 this season, the most important stat, goals scored, is upside down. He’s been on the ice for 38 goals against while they have scored 29. In the end, that’s the stat that matters, especially in the playoffs.
How would it affect the chemistry in the clubhouse? The Lightning have a pretty good thing going on and bringing in any type of high-impact player could upset that balance, even one as respected and revered as Stamkos. They’ve seemingly moved on from his tenure as captain, and while he would be welcomed with open arms, it could be a bit awkward.
Steven Stamkos would fit some of the needs the Lightning are looking to address over the next week, but the biggest issue, his cap hit and what it would take to minimize the effect, might be a hurdle to big to clear.
