We’ve reached Hockey Christmas. Even with a somewhat lackluster free-agency class, expect there to be millions of dollars in contracts handed out starting at 12:01 PM. Yes, some of the fun has been taken out of the day as several big-name unrestricted free agents re-signed with their current teams. It happens every year as general managers choose to overpay for a player they know rather than overpay for one they may still have questions about. Meanwhile players weigh the cost of moving all of their stuff versus a few extra million dollars and decide not to uproot their lives.
What does that mean for the Tampa Bay Lightning? Well, based on their moves leading up to today, it’s likely to be a slow trickle of news. Julien BriseBois has indicated that this summer won’t be like last summer where he let a franchise icon walk, but brought in the top free agent in the market in Jake Guentzel. Mr. BriseBois is going to roll it back for another shot at the Stanley Cup.
Yes, we know it’s always dangerous to say “the Lightning aren’t going to do anything” and then Mr. BriseBois trades thirteen picks and three players to free up enough space to make a move. But really, this year we believe it to be true. Honestly….well, okay, there is a little expectation that he does something weird. Just a small one, though.
As one of the best 5v5 teams in the league (that also rolled out a top-5 power play) an argument can be made that changing things for the sake of changing them doesn’t improve the team. A healthy Oliver Bjorkstrand could be the solution to the hole in the second line, and the continued improvement of young players Conor Geekie and Goncalves will give the Lightning enough depth to stack up against the powerhouses in the league.
That’s the argument for keeping it as is. The argument against has value. As currently constructed the Lightning aren’t a very physical team. That doesn’t mean they need to go out and sign a bunch of players that run around throwing hits all game long. Of the four teams that made the conference finals last year, only Florida (which led the league) finished in the top ten of the NHL in hits per 60. As a matter of fact, the other three teams: Carolina, Dallas, and Edmonton finished 30, 31, and 32 in the league last season in hits (Tampa Bay was 29).
What the Bolts are lacking is the ability to win the battles in front of the net and along the boards. It was glaringly obvious against Florida in the first round of the playoffs, so if the Lightning are going to add to the fringes, that’s what they need to change the most. The new NHL is a blend of skill and tenacity, and those skills are going to fetch a premium on the market today.
What does the Lightning line-up look like prior to noon
Thanks to PuckPedia we can get a little snapshot of what the Lightning look like heading into the Free Agent Frenzy. Of course, there is one familiar name missing, and that’s Gage Goncalves. It’s very likely that the Bolts will sign the restricted free agent to a deal this summer. If that happens, he likely plugs into the third line, knocking Mitchell Chaffee down to the fourth and Conor Geekie to the middle of the ice. Jack Finley and Dylan Duke fight it out to figure out who is the extra player on the roster.
Not a bad line-up. If Mr. BriseBois decides to sleep in or go tarpon fishing today, that is probably a borderline playoff, wild-card team in the Eastern Conference. They boast one of the top lines in hockey, one of the best second-line combos in Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli, and more centers than you can shake a broken hockey stick at filling out the roster.
The defense is solid, but with the two best players teetering along the not-experience-but-old cutoff, it can get thin really fast. Add in Erik Cernak, who is likely to miss at least 10 games even in a healthy year, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Mr. BriseBois has a list of veteran defenseman that he can sign to a one-year deal on speed dial this morning.
Who is leaving?
Cam Atkinson – Tampa Bay was hoping to buy low on a player coming off a tough rehab from an injury. It didn’t work out. By all reports Atkinson is a great clubhouse guy, but his play on the ice just wasn’t at a point where it’s worth bringing him back, even on a league-minimum deal.
Conor Sheary – The Lightning terminated his contract, and their experiment in adding a quick forward who was supposed to provide some scoring depth.
Nick Perbix – of all of the Lightning’s pending free agents, Perbix probably benefitted the most from other players choosing to sign long-term deals with their current teams. With players like Aaron Ekblad, Dante Fabbro, and Ivan Provorov not entering the market, Perbix’s value has increased for teams looking to solidify their depth. Perbix isn’t a game-breaker, but with the right usage he is an effective player.
Gabriel Fortier – Normally, we wouldn’t include a player that has spent the majority of his career in the AHL, but Fortier was also one of the most consistent prospects during his tenure with the Lightning, appearing on our Top 25 Under 25 a record seven times. There is a good chance that, as a Group VI free agent, he tries to latch on with another organization a la Cole Koepke last summer.
Who might be staying?
Luke Glendening – The 36-year-old center was perfectly whelming during his two seasons in Tampa. He won face-offs, played solid defense, and was a reliable presence on the ice. His knack for sustaining shoulder injuries heading into the playoffs was a bit unfortunate, but if Mr. BriseBois surveys the market and decides bringing Glendening back for another season is the best move, it’s a boring, but not career-ending move.
Who might they sign?
Okay, this is the part y’all have been waiting for, right? The prediction game. We throw out some names. They end up signing with another team 32 seconds into free agency and we all realize what a waste of time it is to try and guess what is going through JBB’s mind. Still, if we’re right, we can brag about it for an entire summer.
When it’s all said and done, the Bolts are probably going to have about $3 million in cap space to play with today, if Mr. BriseBois wants to use it all. There is a chance he leaves a little buffer room so that the Lightning can accrue cap space during the season for call-ups and deadline acquisitions.
With that in mind, here are a couple of names they might be able to land:
Sean Kuraly – As a Luke Glendening replacement, Kuraly would bring a lot of the same skills: face-offs, penalty-killing, and leadership on the ice (he was an assistant captain for the last three years in Columbus). He didn’t shy away from contact last season as he laid out 163 hits while averaging 10:13 of ice time.
Radek Faksa – Another center built for a bottom-six role, Faksa has won around 55% of his face-offs each year for the last five seasons. The 31-year-old is getting squeezed out of Dallas based on their cap situation, but would be a solid addition if Mr. BriseBois is looking for another center where offense goes to die (for both teams on the ice).
Arthur Kaliyev – The 24-year-old was not tendered a qualifying offer from the New York Rangers after being claimed on waivers last season. Injuries have bumped him off course over the last few seasons, but the former second-round pick could provide some depth offense as he tries to rebuild his value in hopes of a bigger deal next summer. He does have 75 points (38 goals, 37 assists) in 202 career games with the Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers.
Jan Ruuta – He’s not the same player that left the Lightning, but he’s familiar with the clubhouse and the personality of the team. We all know JBB isn’t allergic to bringing players back into the fold, so could a reunion be in store?
While we’re not running a live chat on the page this year, we will be keeping an eye on the comments field and replying there. So, feel free to post your thoughts on how the day progresses!
