With the Stanley Cup Final underway, we feel it’s a pretty good time to check in on our pre-season predictions. Longtime readers of Raw Charge also know this as the annual “Things Justin G. was wildly incorrect about” column as well. We’ll admit it, prognostication isn’t the sharpest tool we wield (that would be grammatical mistakes), but it is always a fun thing to do.
Looking back at how those guesses have aged is also wildly entertaining. So, take a gander at the original post (especially if you made some predictions in the comments) and see how we did overall.
Prediction Number 1:
The Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division with 109 points.
Well, if they had gotten to 109 points, they would have won the division (they would have held the tie-breaker over Buffalo). Instead, they finished in second with 106 points and a first-round match-up against a team that also had 106 points. Looking back over their losses, the 8-7 loss in regulation to Buffalo on March 8 and the 7-3 loss to the Rangers on November 12 were games where they could have picked up those missing points.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Everyone stays healthy, especially Andrei Vasilevskiy and a hot streak just prior to the Olympics puts them comfortably in first place allowing Jon Cooper to manage his line-up down the stretch.
So, about that “everyone stays healthy” part. It was pretty much the opposite, but we did get the hot streak part correct as the Lightning rattled off a 19-1-1 streak prior to the break. The injuries and the fight for the top spot among Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Montreal kept him from giving his players too much rest. A late season injury to Pontus Holmberg shook up Coach Cooper’s most relied upon line, and it took them a few games to figure things out.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Willy Nylander goes off in the absence of Mitch Marner. Auston Matthews is over whatever mystery injury bothered him last season and he scores 55 goals.
Well. Nylander did lead them in points (79 in 65 games) but we’re not sure that qualifies as “going off”. Auston Matthews finished the season with 27 goals, they almost traded Matthew Knies at the deadline, and finished at the bottom of the division. In other words we nailed it!
Montreal Canadiens – The young players gel while Sammy Montembeault has a Vezina-worthy campaign. A surprise acquisition at the trade deadline helps them eliminate Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.
Montreal finished third! The young players gelled! They almost pulled off a surprise deadline deal (see link about Knies above)! Montembeault. Well, they had a young goaltender that put up impressive numbers, it just wasn’t Montembeault. They also eliminated a team that starts with “T” in the first round of the playoffs.
Florida Panthers (yup, hello first round match-up) – They struggle through much of the early part of the season. Get just enough of a boost after the Olympics when gold-medal winning Matthew Tkachuk returns to the line-up.
They struggled at the beginning of the season, and Matthew Tkachuk won a gold-medal. Sadly (not really) they never got on track and missed the playoffs. That’s a shame.
Boston Bruins – They start slowly, come on like gangbusters at the end of the season, but just miss out. Tanner Jeannot has at least three games worth of suspensions. Mikey Eyssimont is traded at the deadline.
Eyssimont (8 goals, 10 assists) did not get traded and Jeannot (6 goals, 16 assists, 66 PIM). They managed to make the playoffs, but were eliminated in the first round by Buffalo.
Detroit Red Wings – The Yzerplan spends another season in limbo.
We’re taking this one as a win. They finished with 92 points, a six-point improvement over 2024-25, but missed the playoffs and their number-one center is asking for a trade. If his number wasn’t hanging from the rafters, would Mr. Yzerman still have a job in Detroit?
Ottawa Senators – They finish bunched up with the Bruins and Red Wings, but fade after they fail to make a trade deadline impact.
They were sandwiched between the Bruins and Red Wings, but a nice finish got them into the playoffs. Ottawa did make a move for Warren Foegele at the deadline, and he had a respectable 6 goals and 2 assists in 21 regular-season games. Unfortunately, he laid a goose egg in the playoffs as the Senators were swept.
Buffalo Sabres – Once again, goaltending (or lack there of) is their undoing.
Okay, so we were kind of wrong on this one, although, to our credit, it wasn’t like they got great goaltending. If they had, maybe Lindy Ruff would have won the Jack Adams Trophy.
Prediction Number 2
The Lightning fall to the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Finals. Yes, I joined the stat nerds in saying that this year is the year Carolina actually remembers how to play hockey in the playoffs. Really, we mean it. It’s their year.
On the 20th anniversary of their first meeting in the Stanley Cup Final, Edmonton finally gets their revenge as they take down the Hurricanes in 7 games.
Carolina is the only team that lived up to their end of the bargain in this prediction. They steamrolled the Eastern Conference playoff bracket after a solid regular season. Edmonton struggled throughout the regular season and bowed out early. So, now it’s up to Vegas to keep Carolina from raising the Stanley Cup for the first time in two decades.
Prediction Number 3:
Nikita Kucherov (994 points) records his 1,000th point on Monday October 13 in Boston. It’s on a Victor Hedman power play goal in the….second period. He sets a personal record by uttering 16 words in the post-game press conference.
We missed it by two weeks. Hey, Kuch started the season a little slow. Instead, it happened on October 25, at home, against Anaheim.
It was at even-strength and Hedman was on the ice, but not involved in the play (he had just jumped over the boards when the puck bounced into the net). Kucherov was awarded the second assist as his nifty cross-ice pass found its way to Brayden Point who bounced the puck off of Jake Guentzel’s skates for the goal. Because he is Nikita Kucherov, he knocked out the 1,100 milestone in the same season as he picked up two assists against Detroit on March 12th.
He also hit the over in words spoken after the game (we count 52),
“It was a great feeling. It’s something I never thought I would reach,” Kucherov said. “I’m really honored and fortunate to have great teammates along the way. Without them I wouldn’t be here and I wouldn’t have done that. The fan support has been a huge part of it and I’m just real blessed.”
Prediction Number 4:
Kucherov makes it three Art Ross Trophies in a row as he plays in 82 games and puts up 121 points. He once again finishes second in the Hart Trophy race.
After his slow start, he went nuclear for much of the season, eventually grabbing the scoring lead late in the season. Conor McDavid eventually caught and surpassed him, and Kucherov’s 130 points were good for second place. He is a Hart Finalist, but did he do enough to win his second player of the year trophy?
Prediction Number 5:
Jack Finley becomes the 322nd different player to score a goal for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
With six skaters (Finley, Dominic James, Scott Sabourin, Max Crozier, Pontus Holmber, and Charle-Edouard D’Astous) adding their first goals in a Lightning uniform, Tampa Bay now has 326 different goal-scorers in franchise history. Finley was the fourth player out of that list to put one in the net, so by our literal back-of-the-napkin math, he was the 324th player to record a goal (D’Astous has the honor of being 322nd).
Prediction Number 6:
The Pittsburgh Penguins finish with the third worst record in the NHL, but win the Draft Lottery. Congratulations on winning the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes.
Stupid Penguins went and ruined everyone’s theory that they are the league’s chosen franchise. After all it would have been mighty convenient for them to draft a franchise center just as Sidney Crosby’s career is winding down. A surprisingly competitive season vaulted them into playoff contention and left them with 22nd pick overall. Gavin McKenna may fall out of the top spot, but he’s not falling that far.
Prediction Number 7:
Steven Stamkos has a rebound season in Nashville, scoring 30 goals. They still struggle this season and trade him to the Montreal Canadiens at the deadline.
How about a 42-goal bounce back for The Captain? Stamkos found his groove again, but it wasn’t enough for the Predators to make the playoffs. There were some trade rumors with Stamkos’ name attached, but Nashville opted to jettison some role players instead of going for the full overhaul.
Prediction Number 8:
The first meeting between the Lightning and the Panthers on November 15 is a relatively tame affair. J.J. Moser fights A.J. Greer in the first period and both teams agree that all debts have been settled. The NHL forces them to hug it out after the game.
It was a pretty tame affair as the Bolts won 3-1 (Jack Finley’s first goal was the game-winner). There were only 30 minutes worth of penalties in the contest, with a large bulk of those coming from a scrum in the third period, but there were no fights in the contest. The two franchises saved their shenanigans for the last two meetings of the season.
Prediction Number 9:
The Syracuse Crunch start off slowly, but finish second in the North Division as Brandon Halverson posts five shutouts on the season. Niko Huuhtanen recovers from his early season injury to lead them in goals with 25. Dylan Duke is on pace for a 50-point season before getting recalled in late February. Wojciech Stachowiak ends up leading the team in points.
The Crunch finished second in their division. Dylan Duke did have a 59-point season and was recalled (briefly). Halverson posted six shutouts on the season on the way to 24 wins for the Crunch. As for the other two players mentioned, well, not so great. Niko Huuhtanen had his contract terminated and finished the season with Biel HC in the Swiss-A league. Stachowiak was traded in March to the Detroit organization for Ian Mitchell.
Prediction Number 10:
The biggest name traded at the deadline is Jason Robertson. He goes from Dallas to the Chicago Blackhawks in a shocking divisional trade. Chicago makes the playoffs as the eighth seed with his help. He then faces the Stars in the first round of the playoffs.
Jason Robertson did not get traded at the deadline. As of now, he still hasn’t been traded. Of course, he hasn’t signed a new deal with Dallas yet, so there is still a possibility. Chicago didn’t make any shocking trades (or the playoffs). The biggest player moved at the deadline? Tyler Myers at 6’8″.
As for the biggest impact players, maybe Artemi Panarin or Nazem Kadri. If we expand things out a little further, Quinn Hughes to Minnesota was probably the biggest blockbuster deal of the season.
Overall, not too bad! We had some wins mixed in with a lot of losses. So, how did y’all do in the prediction game?
