Some more thoughts on… Brandon Hagel, the offense, and a slow start

The Tampa Bay Lightning are getting a bit of a break after a pair of back-to-backs on the road. It went, okay. They picked up their first win (against Boston of all teams) and then a pair of points in overtime losses before ending things with a loss to Columbus. It\'s nice that they picked up a couple of points, but when the dust settled and the plane touched down at Tampa International, they have one win in six games and are staring up at every team in the Atlantic Division.

Defensively they are giving up a lot of shots, but are middle of the pack in regards to scoring chances and high-danger chances. The good news is that Andrei Vasilevskiy is getting better with every outing. His goals saved above expected has crept up in every outing since the New Jersey games:

Ottawa: -0.96

New Jersey: -1.25

Washington: 0.50

Detroit: 1.40

The goaltending has kept them in games, and the defense has been average, but the offense has not been up to their standards. Not to boil it down to one thing, but maybe they need to start cranking some LMFAO (featuring Lil Jon) in the locker room before their games. The 5v5 numbers don\'t lie:

Shot Attempts - 22nd

Shots on Goal - 26th

Scoring Chances - 21st

High-Danger Chances - 22nd

No one epitomizes the struggle more than Brandon Hagel. Last year\'s 35-goal man is currently sitting on zero goals. It\'s not for lack of trying. Through six games he\'s posted a 2.53 iXG, which ranks second on the team behind Jake Guentzel. He\'s leading the team in shot attempts (39), is second in individual scoring chances (22), and high-danger chances (8). For all of his troubles he had one assist to his name.

Let\'s compare that to his numbers through his first six games last season:

iXG - 2.82

Shot attempts - 29

Individual Scoring Chances - 15

Individual High Danger Chances - 11

His counting totals: 5 goals, 3 assists

Tell us the hockey gods don\'t have a sense of humor.

Much like Hagel, the Lightning\'s numbers through the first six games last season weren\'t great, but they were scoring goals. Last year they were 23rd in shot attempts, 21st in shots on goal, 24th in scoring chances, and 9th in high-danger chances. The difference? They were averaging 3.64 goals at 5v5 versus the 2.34 they are this year.

Right now they\'re just not finishing like they did last year. Not having Nikita Kucherov for the last two games hasn\'t helped, but even when he\'s been in the line-up, there have been too many one-and-done rushes and not enough zone time. According to NHL Edge stats they are 18th in offensive zone time so far this year and 23rd in defensive zone time. They\'re also second in neutral zone time. In short they\'re spending too much time in the areas on the ice where they can\'t score goals.

They have always been a team that builds their rush through the defensive zone, and right now they are struggling to do it for large stretches of the game. Outlet passes are getting picked off or don\'t have a target. Long stretch passes go unconnected and end up as icings. Forechecks are pressuring them to the point where they have to just flip the puck out or go off the glass. Opponents are able to recycle in the neutral zone and enter right away.

When a team is spending that much time in their own zone is that it is exhausting. They exert their energy getting the puck out of their own zone and through the neutral zone. By the time they do it, they\'re at the end of the shift and have to dump it in and change lines. Even if they hold their defensive shape and limit the chances against them, it\'s still a lot of hard work that\'s being expelled.

So, what\'s the worry meter at right now? We\'ve probably bumped it up to a 4. It\'s not time to panic just yet. The little break they have right now will give them a chance to work on some processes. Nick Paul and Zemgus Girgensons are practicing again, and Paul\'s addition to the line-up should make them a little deeper (don\'t be surprised if he shows up on the second line).

The most frustrating part of the sluggish start is that they\'ve shown glimpses of being a much more competent team. In their last two games they\'ve played with the desperation they need to score goals. It\'s just been in the third period when they\'ve been down a goal. Against Washington they were able to pull a point out of it, against Columbus they came up short.

There is still more than enough offensive talent on this squad to make us think that this is just in a bit of a rut. If they can get it together, they should be able to roll three pretty solid lines on the ice every night. A positive byproduct of the early season line shuffling is that it looks like they\'ve found a competent third line in Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, and Pontus Holmberg.

Two weeks into the season and the Lightning have just one win. It\'s not great, but it\'s not the end of the world. A couple of wins and they\'re right back into the mix. They have some teams they should beat coming up on the schedule, but they will also be tested by them. Chicago is going to come at them with speed and youth. So will Anaheim. How they deal with those teams will give us a good indication on if they\'re getting back to their game or if it\'s time to start thinking about other paths.

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