Some preliminary thoughts on…the NHL trade deadline

As the Tampa Bay Lightning continue their slog through the month of January, it\'s becoming obvious that they aren\'t a complete team that is ready to make a deep run in the playoffs. At this point they are, much like we thought they were at the beginning of the season, a border-line playoff/wild-card team. They\'ve played better than we anticipated but so have a host of other teams in the Eastern Conference.

The improved play by Ottawa, Detroit, and Montreal, has complicated things in regards to the overall trade market. Normally by now there is a distinct line between teams that are fighting for a playoff spot, and those that are fighting for the future. Right now, especially in the Eastern Conference, there are a lot of teams bunched up in the mucky middle.

Montreal currently holds the second wild-card spot with 52 points. The only teams that are more than five points behind the Canadiens are the New York Islanders (45 points) and the Buffalo Sabres (41 points). Over in the Western Conference, a few more teams have dropped out of the race. San Jose (34 points), Chicago (34 points), and Nashville (41 points) are ten or more points behind the Calgary Flames. Anaheim (42 points) and Seattle (45 points) are probably also out of serious contention.

Mid-to-late January usually sees the first somewhat big deal for contenders that traditionally kicks off the trade season. Vancouver and Calgary started things last season with the Elias Lindholm deal, which happened on January 31st. This season, it wouldn\'t be surprising if some teams wait until the 4 Nations Face-Off break (February 4th) to assess if they are buyers or sellers.

We expect the Lightning to be buyers. Even as they .500 their way through the month of January, they still have a 75.5% chance of making the playoffs according to MoneyPuck . That number should skyrocket if they can put a little winning streak together.

The moves he made this summer did a good job of extending the window a little. They got a little younger with Conor Geekie and J.J. Moser. Ryan McDonagh improved their defense in the immediate future, and the veterans they signed were to short-term deals (with the exception of Zemgus Girgensons). Signing Jake Guentzel gave them a scoring forward who should be around the 30-goal mark for the next few years at the very least.

Mr. BriseBois is going to have a little more freedom than he\'s had in the past. Last season he had room to bring in some short-term help due to Mikhail Sergachev\'s injury, but moves that had to be made in the upcoming summer didn\'t leave him a lot of room to bring in additional salary. This year, he\'ll have room to add a contract (probably between $4 - $6 million depending on when Erik Cernak and J.J. Moser come back). Not only that, he\'ll have room in the future as well. The salary cap is likely to grow by about $4 million at the least next season. It could go up by as much as $8-$9 million if certain agents are to be believed.

That gives him the flexibility to go after players that could stick around past July 1st, which is his preferred mode of operation. Last season\'s acquisitions of Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba were sparked by the fact that he knew the cap room he had to play with was temporary. He doesn\'t have that restriction this trade season. So, it\'ll be open hunting for him over the next two months.

It\'s also nice that none of the players currently on the roster are expected to need a huge raise next season. There are no long extensions kicking in, and the restricted free agents on the roster probably won\'t need huge raises.

The Restricted Free Agents

Max Crozier ($867,000)

Lucas Edmonds ($861,667)

Jaydon Dureau ($841,666)

Jack Finley ($797,500)

Jesse Ylonen ($775,000)

Gage Goncalves ($775,000)

Hugo Alnefelt, Simon Ryfors, Waltteri Merela

As you can see from that list, it\'s a pretty run-of-the-mill RFA season for the Lightning. They will all be tendered a standard offer and end up signing one-year extensions. There might be a chance that Crozier or Goncalves signs a multi-year deal, but it would be closer to something like Darren Raddysh signed (two-years at $975,000 per season) as opposed to an Anthony Cirelli or Brayden Point type of long-term deal.

The two players that are in line for big raises are Conor Geekie and J.J. Moser, but both of them are signed through next season, and can\'t even began their contract negotiations until next season. So, things are pretty stable in terms of cap commitments for a change.

So, what do the Lightning need?

The Needs

We\'ll get into specifics in another article, but the big question is \"What tops the list on Julien BriseBois\' shopping list?\" Much like every other team still in contention for a playoff spot, a middle-six forward that can score is need number one. Trading for a winger than can fill the spot next to Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli would make it a successful deadline for the Lightning. Not only would it help the league\'s best offense, it would keep both Nick Paul and Conor Geekie on the third line.

If the market for scoring wingers is overheated, Tampa Bay might settle for a more defensive-minded, grind-it-out bottom-six forward that can help them prevent goals. In that scenario, they would probably continue the Geekie-as-a-second-liner experiment.

A depth defenseman with experience might also by on Mr. BriseBois\' wish list. It isn\'t as big of a concern as it was last season considering the production they\'ve gotten from Emil Lilleberg, Darren Raddysh, and Nick Perbix. As long as J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak come back healthy they have a strong rotation on the back line.

There has been some chatter about the Lightning looking to upgrade their back-up goaltender position. It would be an interesting use of resources considering that, outside of a three-game stretch at the beginning of the season, Jonas Johansson has been more than adequate as a back-up. And, let\'s face it, if Andrei Vasilevskiy goes down for any extended stretch of time, the Lightning\'s chance of making it to the post-season would take a huge hit, no matter who gets the call in his place.

As for a workload issue, Vasilevskiy is going to have a nice two-week break coming up. Following that, they have a busy, but not overwhelming schedule. They will be playing just about every night, but only have two back-to-backs. Coach Cooper will have the ability to spot start Johansson to give Vasilevskiy a break or two down the stretch. Would it be nice to have a veteran sitting on the bench behind Vasy? Sure, but it is worth a prospect or am early-round draft pick for a goalie that is only going to suit up four or five times?

So, what do the Lightning have to offer other teams?

The Draft Picks

2025: 2nd, 2nd (Los Angeles), 4th, 4th (Edmonton), 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (Utah), 7th (San Jose), 7th (Minnesota)

2026: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th

2027: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th

From the minute he picked up the extra second round pick from Los Angeles in the Tanner Jeannot deal, we\'ve known it\'s been burning a hole in Mr. BriseBois\' pocket. On its own it is not enough to pry a second-line scoring forward, or even a third-line forward, but it is a nice addition to a package deal.

While they don\'t have a first-round pick in the upcoming draft, they do have their next two, which could be intriguing to a rebuilding club. The 2025 first-round pick from the Lightning (currently owned by Nashville) would likely be at the back half of the draft, but if you believe Tampa Bay is on the decline, a 2026 or 2027 first-round pick could be a lottery pick.

Could JBB offer up the Tanner Jeannot Trade Pick Platter to a team shopping a proven scoring forward that still has term on their contract? We know the Lightning\'s general manager isn\'t a fan of going back-and-forth in regards to negotiating, so to have a somewhat full arsenal of picks available to him would help him overwhelm a trading partner.

The Prospects

Are there any A+, can\'t-fail-future-stars-of-the-league in the Lightning\'s system right now? No. Are there a couple of very enticing prospects that could be solid NHLers? Yes. Ethan Gauthier and Isaac Howard top that list. What the Lightning do have is a series of slightly older, slightly closer to NHL-ready prospects that could thrive at the NHL level if they get some playing time. Dylan Duke, Max Crozier, Max Groshev, Gage Goncalves, all fit that type of profile. Again, they\'re not enough to lure a difference-maker to the bay area on their own, but could be part of an interesting package for a team that has room on their roster for a player to grow.

The Veterans

While it\'s the first year in a long time that the Lightning don\'t have to worry about following a dollar-in/dollar-out formula, Mr. BriseBois might have to clear out a little more space for a bigger name. There is also the fact that once J.J. Moser is healthy, the right side of the defense gets a little crowded. Darren Raddysh may have played himself into being a bit too valuable to move considering he\'s under contract for another season at an affordable $975,000.

Nick Perbix, who has rebounded from a bit of a down season, is a pending unrestricted free agent making $1.125 million. That\'s a pretty hefty salary to have in the press box for the remainder of the season, especially when the Lighting have similar players (Max Crozier and Declan Carlile) waiting in the wings that could serve as a seventh defenseman post trade-deadline.

If the Bolts do pick up another forward in a deal, Cameron Atkinson is the player to likely be affected the most in regards to playing time. It also ends the chance of Conor Sheary getting recalled this season. It\'s possible that JBB could move those guys in a separate deal for a late-round pick (he does love himself a seventh-round pick) or future considerations.

What isn\'t going to happen is that any of the key pieces of the team will be moved. Nick Paul is going to be a member of the Lightning. Victor Hedman isn\'t going anywhere. With the Lightning still in the playoff window, and no team running away with the Eastern conference title, they aren\'t going to trade away any of their key pieces.

The next eight weeks or so will be pretty interesting as the Lightning fight for a playoff spot. They\'ve played well enough that they deserve help to push them the next level. The big question will be if Julien BriseBois can find the right solutions to help his players out.

Talking Points