Both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference Finals have hit the three-game mark and it seems like we’re steam-rolling to a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Final. The Florida Panthers are absolutely dominating their series against the Carolina Hurricanes and have a chance to complete the sweep tonight. Out west, it’s been a more interesting battle with the Edmonton Oilers using their offense (and steady goaltending from Stu Skinner) to take a 2-1 lead over the Dallas Stars.
After dropping the first two games against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their previous series, the Panthers have absolutely rolled. They’ve won seven of their last eight games with four of those games coming on the road. The offense is clicking against Carolina as Florida has recorded 11 goals in three games and forced the Hurricanes to switch to Pyotr Kochetkov in net (although it looks like Freddie Andersen is back for Game 4).
It’s been an absolute bloodbath at 5v5 with Florida outscoring Carolina 12-1 despite the chances being almost even. Florida has a 25-24 edge in high-danger chances while the Hurricanes lead in scoring chances 60-59. The difference is simple – the Panthers are cashing in on their opportunities as they’ve converted 10 of their scoring chances into goals while the Hurricanes have only scored once on their 60 scoring chances. (all stats via Natural Stat Trick).
What has stood out the most, and this is through the entire playoffs, is not Florida’s forecheck (which is still very effective), but their play in front of their own net. So far, through 15 games they have allowed just 20 high-danger shots against according to Money Puck. Teams have not been able to get to the front of the net for primary chances or rebound chances. So, all Sergei Bobrovsky has to do is make an initial save on a shot that’s usually coming from distance, and then let the players in front of him clean up the mess. It’s an effective method of keeping the puck out of the net.
Carolina, currently riding a 15-game losing streak in Conference Finals play, just can’t get their offense going. For a team that normally dictates the pace of play, they’ve been on the backfoot for the entire series and haven’t been able to match Florida’s physicality or pace of play. If they get swept for a fourth time in the ECF, perhaps it’s time for a change behind the bench.
This is the part where we talk about Florida’s love of playing/hitting after the whistle and behind the play. Are they doing it again in this series? Yup. Are they getting away with it? Yup. Should we be surprised at this point? Nope. As long as the officials aren’t calling it they are going to keep doing it. Even when they are getting caught by the officials, their opponents aren’t taking advantage as Florida is killing off 85.75 of their penalties against.
Can Carolina pull off the miraculous comeback? Honestly, no. Even if they manage to pick up a win tonight, it’s wildly unlikely that they will win four in a row.
Onto the Western Conference Finals where at least we can say it’s not going to be a sweep. After falling behind 3-1 in the second period of Game 1, Dallas roared back to win 6-3 after they whipped three goals past Stuart Skinner in six minutes of play. After that, the beleaguered Edmonton netminder has been solid, allowing just two goals since. He’s been the difference in the series, posting a 25-save shutout in Game 2 and then stopping 33-of-34 in a 6-1 win in Game 3.
Despite giving up 12 goals in 3 games, Dallas hasn’t played badly. Lightning fans are probably used to the phrase “we did a lot of good things, but didn’t get the breaks” following losses, and that seems to be the message that Stars’ coach Pete DeBoer is taking in the series. It’s a nice thought, but in a short series, teams can’t afford moral victories without actually putting up W’s on the scoreboard.
Unfortunately for the Stars, they’re facing a couple of problems. First off, Jake Oettinger hasn’t been at his best. Not all of the goals have been on him, but he’s got to start making a few unlikely stops to keep his team in the game at crucial junctures. The second problem, and this looks large, the Oilers best player just remembered he’s the best player in the game. Connor McDavid is at 5 points (2 goals, 3 assists) in 3 games and Game 3 might have been one of his best of the playoffs. His goal at the end of the second period was an absolute dagger.
He manages to not only back Cody Ceci off on the entry, but still skate past him (and through an uncalled hook) for the wraparound attempt. He then puts himself in position to get to the loose puck in a position where he can attack the net before snapping a shot past Oettinger. Not only an incredible effort, but absolutely demoralizing considering Dallas had pretty much controlled play for the entire period only to end it where they had started it, down two goals.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins throwing up 7 points (2 goals, 5 assists) is kind of unexpected. The former number one overall pick who has been there through all of the emotional damage of being an Edmonton Oilers player over the last decade has provided some extremely important depth scoring so far through the first three games. With RNH playing like it’s 2022-23, head coach Chris Knoblauch can pick and choose when to put the McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together, or keep Draisaitl on the second line to keep the Stars chasing the puck.
One of the questions going into the series was if Dallas could hang with Edmonton and possibly steal a 6-5 type of game. They did in Game 1, but ever since then they haven’t been able to match the Oilers’ production. Game 4 is going to be a huge game in this series. If Dallas can sneak out a victory in Edmonton and even up the series, they have a good chance of building off of that momentum. If not, McDavid and Co. are going to get another shot at the Stanley Cup.
