I think all of us can see from watching Steven Stamkos play that he’s not one hundred percent. And of course that’s to be expected after an injury like he had. It’ll take a long healing period for him to feel normal and to get back his stride completely. That’s all both expected and fairly accurate, according to how Stamkos himself described his return.
But is he “a shell of himself?” Has his production plummeted somehow to the point where he’s no longer the weapon he once was, a reason to count the Lightning out? Not so fast. Below are Stamkos’s production numbers from before the injury and after his return. Bold lines are the biggest changes. Negative differences are decreases since his return. Positive differences show increases. (Stats from extraskater.com.)
|
|
BEFORE |
AFTER |
DIFF |
|
TOI |
20.28 |
20.23 |
-0.05 |
|
PP TOI |
3.55 |
3.90 |
0.35 |
|
SH TOI |
1.07 |
0.16 |
-0.91 |
|
EV TOI |
15.28 |
15.42 |
0.14 |
|
O/D St% |
50.58% |
50.97% |
0.39% |
|
QOC |
29.75% |
28.92% |
-0.01 |
|
QOT |
29.94% |
29.21% |
-0.01 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
IND. SHOTS |
3.53 |
3.20 |
-0.33 |
|
IND. GOALS |
0.82 |
0.55 |
-0.27 |
|
IND ASSISTS |
0.53 |
0.30 |
-0.23 |
|
ON-ICE GF |
1.06 |
0.60 |
-0.46 |
|
ON-ICE GA |
0.59 |
0.55 |
-0.04 |
|
ON-ICE CF |
12.71 |
15.00 |
2.29 |
|
ON-ICE CA |
13.06 |
12.30 |
-0.76 |
|
CF% |
48.46% |
54.20% |
5.73% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
IND SH% (ALL) |
23.33% |
17.19% |
-6.15% |
There’s no change in Stamkos’s usage except for the absence of time on the penalty kill. There is no change in goals against or corsi against–he and his linemates are stopping the same opponents at the same rates as they were before he got hurt. He’s averaging the same number of shots per game and significantly more shot attempts (CF) per game. These are all measures of how much he’s playing and how much work he and his linemates are doing while on the ice.
The big fall: shooting percent, both his and his linemates. And as we’ve noted multiple times in the past. shooting percentage varies wildly in small samples like 38 games (or the 18 and 20 games in the two groups.) It can vary quite a bit without any change by a player. That’s not to say Stamkos’s shooting percent will jump back up simply because the playoffs are starting. It’s only to note that it’s the thing he has the least amount of control over in this stretch.
In the end, while Stamkos is visibly not up to his normal speed, he’s hardly a hollow shell. We may be looking at something more like 90% than something like 50% of himself.
As long as Stamkos keeps shooting like he has been, it’s more likely than not that he’ll score goals in much the same patterns that he has in the past. And Steven Stamkos, even at less than 100%, is a hell of an offensive weapon.
