Game Three: Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers (Florida leads series 2-0)
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Location: Rogers Place
How to Watch: ABC, ESPN+, SN, CBC, TVAS
The site to follow: Litter Box Cats (Panthers) Oilers Nation (Oilers)
Favorite per Hard Rock Live – Edmonton Oilers -125
Alright, let’s dust off the cliche machine right out of the gate. Say it with me:
“A team isn’t really in trouble in a playoff series until they lose a game at home.”
The good news for Edmonton Oilers fans is that, as of right now, they haven’t lost a home game in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final. The not-so-good news is that they need to fix their game in a hurry or that statement isn’t going to be true at this time tomorrow. Through the first two games, this series has pretty much been dominated by the Florida Panthers.
Continuing a trend that started in the third period of Game 1, the Panthers thoroughly denied the Oilers offense any sustained pressure in their zone. Outside of a soft goal allowed by Sergei Bobrovsky in the first period on Mattias Ekholm’s 4-on-4 breakaway, they bottled up Edmonton’s scoring on their way to a 4-1 victory. After posting an expected goals of 3.74 in Game 1, Edmonton was held to just a 1.07 xGF in Game 2 with Florida allowing just 9 total scoring chances.
The Oilers return to Rogers Place, where an amped-up crowd will be getting their first taste of live Stanley Cup hockey for the first time in almost two decades. Throughout this postseason, Edmonton has been pretty solid at home, posting a 6-3 record where they are scoring an outstanding 3.98 GF/60 while allowing a respectable 2.99 GA/60 (Florida is tops at 1.97 GA/60 on home ice).
The solution to the problem is obvious, they have to find a way to get the offense going. Going into the series everyone knew that Florida’s defense was elite, but to hold Connor McDavid and his cohorts to just one goal (and that was by a defenseman) through two games was a tad bit unexpected. The Big Three of McDavid, Leon Draisaitly, and Zach Hyman have been held to just one assist (by McDavid), 11 shots on goal, and 10 scoring chances at 5v5 play so far. Florida has taken them out of the game and Edmonton’s secondary scoring hasn’t responded.
The opposite is the case for Florida. Their Big Three of Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Sam Reinhart haven’t been flooding the net with goals either as they have just 2 assists, 12 shots on goal, and 8 scoring chances at even strength, but unlikely sources in Evan Rodrigues (2 goals) and Niko Mikkola (1 goal) have proven the difference at 5v5. Add in the fact that Florida has gone 7-for-7 on the penalty kill and that’s how Edmonton has found themselves two losses away from elimination.
How do they change things around? Work harder? Want it more? Those are pretty much useless phrases thrown in by pundits just to fill time. Everyone on the ice wants to raise the Stanley Cup. They haven’t put their bodies through what they’ve gone through just to wander around on the ice in the Final. What they have to do is execute better. In Game 1, they showed that they can disrupt the Florida defense, cause turnovers, and generate scoring chances. That they didn’t finish one or two of those chances can be chalked up to bad puck luck.
Even in Game 2, when Florida was a lot cleaner in their zone, chances occurred, but the puck rolled off of a few sticks at unfortunate times. The 1-0 lead they carried into the second period, in all likelihood should have been 2-0 had not the crossbar interfered with Evan Bouchard’s shot from distance. If Edmonton can get back to generating those chances down low again, they can put a couple past Bobrovsky.
There might be a few changes in the line-up for Edmonton when they take to the ice tonight. Darnell Nurse, who missed significant portions of Game 2, did not practice, and while coach Kris Knoblauch wasn’t concerned about his defenseman missing Game 3, it is something to keep an eye on. Forward Evander Kane did start practice, but left before it ended as he continues to deal with a sports hernia issue.
On the Florida side, they did make it to Edmonton, albeit a bit delayed due to their flight being delayed because of the storms that rolled through South Florida. Barkov did practice prior to making the trip up and will probably be in the game after he received a crosscheck to the face towards the end of Game 2.
At the moment, this is the pivotal game of the series for Edmonton. A win tonight and they can look to even the series on Saturday. If they can’t pull it off, folks in Sunrise will start making their plans to attend a parade. In all honesty it won’t matter if Kane or Nurse or Corey Perry or Cody Ceci are the ones suiting up due to injuries. The pressure will be on Connor McDavid to keep the Oilers going this season. He will have to be the one to lead them to victory if they want to have a chance in this series.
