Stay out of the box: Lightning at Devils preview

Game Thirty-One: Tampa Bay Lightning (17-11-2) at New Jersey Devils (17-12-1)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Prudential Center, Brick City, New Jersey

TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, MSG, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -130

Know the Opponents: All About the Jersey

Two teams, both alike in dignity, in fair Newark, where we lay our scene……

There are a ton of similarities outside of just their record between the Lightning and the Devils heading into their contest tonight. Both teams have been unwanted accumulators of player games lost due to injury. Both teams won their last outing after longish losing streaks (four for the Lightning and five for the Devils). Both really kind of need this win to keep pace in the playoff race. Both enjoy and respect the face-off talents of Luke Glendening.

So, how can the Lightning pick up their second victory in a row and right the ship on their four-game road trip? Well, keeping things at 5v5 would help. Based on the numbers, Tampa Bay is the better team at even strength, especially when the Devils are playing at home:

The fact that the Devils have a 9-4-1 record at home while averaging well under two goals a game at 5v5 is a testament to their defense and power play. With the extra skater, the Devils are converting at a 23.3% success rate, which is the ninth-best mark in the league so far this season.

Part of the Lightning’s issue during their four-game swoon (and one-game winning streak) in December is that they’ve been drawn to the penalty box like a moth to a flame. They’ve taken 22 penalties over their last 5 games, including 17 minors (their 4 major penalties are tied for the most in the league over that stretch).

Of greater concern is that they’ve struggled to kill them off, at least compared to how successful they were earlier in the season. Opponents have converted 4 out of 16 power play opportunities over the last five games. So, not only are the Lightning interrupting their 5v5 rhythm, they are also giving up goals, which, to be overly simplistic, is never a good thing.

To their credit, it’s been a team-wide trend as 12 skaters have been assessed at least one minor over the five-game stretch, and it’s not just the players that have been playing more than expected (although Charle-Edouard D’Astous is leading the way with three minors). Part of the issue, at least according to the eye test, is that they’ve been chasing the play a little and that tends to lead to, for the lack of a better term, “lazy” penalties like hooking or holding as they tend to make up for being out of position.

If they can get their skates moving, and dictate play against the Devils, those penalties will go away and the Lightning can keep the game at 5v5 or have the edge in power plays. Where, if nothing else, they can at least burn two minutes of clock time.

As for the line-ups tonight. Well, your guess is as good as ours. We’ve done our best to guess the lines for the Lightning below, but the status of Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy (who is eligible to come off of injured reserve tonight), and Dominic James is up in the air. If we get a better clue after the morning skate, we will update things.

Update Number 1 – Declan Carlile was recalled and Victor Hedman is heading on injured reserve. Yay!

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards:

Defense:

Goaltenders:

New Jersey Devils

Forwards:

Defense:

Goaltenders: