We’ve officially hit the trade season as we’re under 30 days until the March 7th trade deadline. The Tampa Bay Lightning are in a playoff spot as they cool their heels during the 4 Nations Face-off break, but there are some holes to patch up in the line-up for them if they want to be more than a one-round team. General manager Julien BriseBois plays his cards pretty close to his chest at this time of the year, so there will be a lot of speculation in our posts over the next few days, but we’ll try and keep things based in the realm of possibility.
After several seasons of having to keep an eye on the salary cap purse strings and employing a “dollar in/dollar out” strategy, Mr. BriseBois has a little more freedom in pursuing players. There is cap room this year and moving forward. In theory, he can add to the roster without subtracting from it, which is somewhere he really hasn’t been in a few years. Last year he had a little freedom at the deadline due to Mikhail Sergachev’s injury, but he also had to keep an eye on the summer, so he couldn’t commit to a big, long contract. Hence, two rental pick-ups.
This year he can take on a little bit of salary, and some term, which plays into his desired way of tackling the deadline. When he can, he tries to improve the team for today, and for tomorrow. We saw that with his first big splashes in Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman, and it’s continued with players like Nick Paul and Brandon Hagel.
Of course, adding players with term tends to take a little more capital than a deadline rental, and that’s where the Lightning could struggle to match what other teams can offer. In the past, Mr. BriseBois tends to try and limit negotiating by overpaying for the players he targets….
Okay, now that you’re done being angry about the Tanner Jeannot trade, let’s move forward. Who is Alex Tuch, and why are we talking about him today?
Alex Tuch is a 28-year-old right-wing currently employed by the Buffalo Sabres. Originally drafted in the first round by the Minnesota Wild in 2014, he was traded to Las Vegas prior to the expansion draft in 2017, he was a productive forward for the Original Golden Knights. Productive enough that he was part of the Jack Eichel deal in 2021. Since then he’s put up 219 points (89 goals, 130 assists) in 253 games for the Sabres.
This season he has 43 points (19 goals, 24 assists) in 54 games for the Sabres. He carries a $4.75 million cap hit and is in the sixth year of a seven-year contract that he signed when he was a Golden Knight. One of the reason’s we’re talking about him is that he’s been linked to Tampa Bay by Elliotte Friedman.
We know that the Lightning are questing after a forward that can slide into their top-six and, on paper, Tuch could be a very nice fit. He is a natural right-shot that is a tireless skater that uses his size to establish position in front of the net, but is also fast enough to beat defenders off of the rush. While he’s unlikely to reach his career-high of 36 goals set back in 2022-23, he should be close. What the Lightning and his other potential suitors will really like is that his offense isn’t reliant on power play time. Of his 19 goals this season, 16 of them are at 5v5 and the other three are short-handed.
He isn’t a prolific shooter, but he doesn’t mind letting it go from wherever he is on the ice. He does like to get to the middle of the ice for most of his offense.
The strong 5v5 play has long been part of his career as he only has 24 career goals on the man-advantage, with 8 of them coming during that 2022-23 season. That’s not necessarily a bad thing as the Lightning have scorers on the power play (Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel are tied for the league lead in power play goals with 13 each), and he would likely be on the second unit if Tampa Bay does deal for him. They would rather him continue to focus on producing at 5v5, which is where the bulk of postseason time is played.
Unlike the Anthony Duclair acquisition, trading for Tuch wouldn’t sacrifice defense for offense. The 6’4″ forward is a solid defender who can pin players against the boards in his own zone and doesn’t shy away from stepping in front of a shot (80 blocked shots this year). He’ll also give Coach Cooper another option short-handed as he is one of Buffalo’s top penalty killers.
Tuch would likely step in on the second line with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli, making that line even more of a match-up headaches for opponents. As we can see from All Three Zones microdata, he is adaptable to playing off of the rush as well as a cycle game. His ability to bring the puck into the zone would take some of the pressure off of Brandon Hagel on that line, and force defenders to spread out a little bit more if both of them are rumbling down the ice.
He’s also more than willing to harass other teams on their breakouts.
As for his contract status, he’s signed for one more season after this with a cap hit of $4.75 million. It wouldn’t take too much massaging for Mr. BriseBois fit him under the cap. Depending on when the deal was done, he could absorb the entire contract, which would be a point in the Lightning’s favor as some of the other suitors might look for Buffalo to retain a portion of his contract.
It’s been a rough season for the Sabres, but they still have a fairly solid core and aren’t looking to go through another tear down and rebuild so they will likely be prioritizing NHL-ready prospects to go along with the number-one draft pick Tuch should command. The Lightning have their 2026 pick, which might be of more value to some teams than a 2025. This summer’s draft isn’t regarded as particularly deep, even if the Lightning still had their pick it would likely be well out of the top ten. A future first-rounder could give Buffalo general manager Kevyn Adams a trade chip to use next season if Buffalo returns to contention.
As for NHL-ready prospects, the Lightning don’t have any surefire hall-of-famers waiting in the wings, but Gage Goncalves has shown that he is adjusting to the NHL level of late. Darren Raddysh, is past the prospect stage, but might be an intriguing part of a deal for a Sabres team that will have some openings on the right side of the defense next season. For the Bolts to pull this deal off, it will likely be a platter of picks and a prospect or two to get it done.
If Buffalo is asking for Ethan Gauthier or Isaac Howard along with a first-round pick, they would have to either retain a significant portion of the salary (they have open retention spots) or make it part of a bigger deal by including draft picks or a prospect on their end.
There is a path forward for the Lightning and Sabres to make a deal, and it does make sense for both sides. For Buffalo, Tuch has more value now with term on his current deal then if they waited for the next trade deadline. For Tampa, he fits their style of play and can provide yet another source of 5v5 offense this year and next.
