Tampa Bay Lightning at Arizona Coyotes: GAME #54
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern Time
Location: Mullett Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUNX, BSAZ, ESPN+, HULU
Opponent SBNation Site: Five for Howling
DraftKings Line: Lightning -1.5 O/U 6.5
There was a time when a friend of mine was considering the two of us put together a gambling podcast that focused on the NHL. Because that’s what the world needs, two more middle-aged guys podcasting about gambling right? We had gotten so far as to figuring out strategies for gambling, tracking games and trends (spreadsheets and all!), and were working on scripts for the first episode. Then the pandemic happened and sports stopped.
Had we actually gone through with the plan and spent the last two years giving advice on hockey betting, I would have taken one look at this game and advised to run as far away as possible from making any sort of bet associated with it.
At first glimpse, it would seem to be an easy bet – the Lightning, off of three straight Stanley Cup Finals appearances, against the Arizona Coyotes, a top contender in the fight for Connor Bedard. It’s simple, right? Just throw your bet on the Bolts and wait for the money to roll in.
Wellllllll maybe not. Let’s talk about the concept of a scheduled loss. There are times throughout the season where you break down a team’s schedule and realize that factors other than pure talent may play a part in the final outcome. A case in point could be made that this game may fall into that category.
Factor One: The Lightning are on a back-to-back
After a long, high-paced game against the Colorado Avalanche that went to a shootout, the Lightning had to jump on a plane to Arizona and likely got into their hotels in the wee hours of the morning. On the other side, the Coyotes played in Nashville on Monday and have had a normal amount of rest as they get ready to kick off a short one-game homestand. Brian Elliott is likely to get the start. While he’s been solid as the back-up, he’s no Andrei Vasilevskiy (flashback to last night’s toe save in the third period).
Factor Two: Arizona has been playing okay hockey
In the month of February the Coyotes have recorded points in all four games that they’ve played with wins over Minnesota and Nashville and overtime losses to Chicago and St. Louis. Despite averaging just 2.67 goals per game on the season they’ve averaged 3.75 over this stretch. Fans rooting for the tank and the number one pick may not be pleased with this this sudden show of offense, but the Lightning and their sometimes casual approach to limiting scoring chances have to pay attention.
Clayton Keller has been on a tear over this stretch with 3 goals and 6 assists over his last four games.
Factor Three: Arizona has been better at home than on the road, the Lightning have been worse on the road than at home
The Coyotes have struggled on the road with just 7 wins in 33 games, but at home they have 11 wins in 21 games, which is respectable. The Lightning have played better on this road trip so far, but overall have been kind of average away from Amalie Arena. After the win against Colorado last night, Coach Cooper talked about being pleased with the four points on the trip so far, but stressed that the winning can’t stop with that. They have two more games on the trip and need points out of both.
Mullett Arena may only seat 4,600 fans, but from all reports it’s a rather raucous atmosphere akin to a college game when the team is playing well. It could be a little disorienting for the Lightning, who are used to playing in front of slightly larger crowds.
With all of that being said, the Lightning do have the deeper roster, something that is a tremendous asset in back-to-back games. If the Lightning can stay out of the penalty box, Coach Cooper can roll the third and fourth lines a little more and take some pressure off of the Point line. The Ross Colton/Nick Paul/Pat Maroon line had a sneaky good game last night posting a 75% edge in shot attempts and a 72.73% advantage in scoring chances when they were on the ice at even strength.
Having lines that can dominate when the top guys are on the bench is a tremendous advantage. Hopefully, they can carry that over into tonight’s contest.
Arizona is also down their top defender with Jakob Chychrun being held out as he waits to find out where he is going to be traded to (Los Angeles was the early contender). As for the Lightning, there was no word on the status of Nick Perbix, so there is a chance that Cal Foote stays in the line-up tonight. Coach Cooper hyped up his young defender, stressing that Foote has played well when needed. We’ll update in the comments if we hear anything about the line-up.
The Lightning should win this game and then enjoy the next few days in Las Vegas, but it’s not an automatic guarantee.
Comparison chart:
Tampa Bay Lightning at Arizona Coyotes Comparison
| Game #54 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Arizona Coyotes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 35-16-2 | 18-28-8 |
| Home Record | 21-4-2 | 11-8-2 |
| Road Record | 14-12-0 | 7-20-6 |
| Goals For | 191 | 146 |
| Goals Against | 156 | 191 |
| xGF | 183 | 136.35 |
| xGA | 170.42 | 193.75 |
| PP% | 26% | 19.4% |
| PK% | 80.6% | 75.7% |
Tampa Bay Lightning Potential Lines
Forward Lines
Brandon Hagel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Steven Stamkos – Anthony Cirelli – Alex Killorn
Ross Colton – Nick Paul – Pat Maroon
Vlad Namestnikov – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Corey Perry
Defense Pairings
Victor Hedman – Zach Bogosian
Mikhail Sergachev – Erik Cernak
Ian Cole – Cal Foote/Nick Perbix
Goaltenders
Brian Elliott
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Arizona Coyotes Potential Lines
Forward Lines
Clayton Keller – Barrett Hayton – Nick Smaltz
Matias Maccelli – Nick Bjugstad – Lawson Crouse
Nick Ritchie – Travis Boyd – Christian Fischer
Dysin Mayo – Jack McBain – Zack Kassian
Defense Pairings
Juuso Valimaki – Troy Stecher
Patrik Nemeth – J.J. Moser
Josh Brown – Victor Soderstrom
Goalies
Karel Vejmelka
Connor Ingram
