Lightning at Sabres Game Preview and Thread: Stick to the process

Game Seventy-six: Tampa Bay Lightning (44-26-5) at Buffalo Sabres (32-36-6)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo

TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, MSG-B, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -198

Know the Opponents: Die By the Blade

Story Lines and Notes

We’re back for night number two of “win and you’re in” for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Any type of victory tonight secures the two points they need to officially join the postseason race for another year. Sure, there are some other scenarios where they can clinch, but wouldn’t it be nice to do it with a victory? Two weeks ago, one could circle this game against the Buffalo Sabres and pencil it in the win column. Tonight, not so much. [Ed. Note – the official clinching scenario is the Lightning getting at least one point tonight OR any result other than a New York Rangers regulation win against the Devils OR Canadiens lose to Flyers in regulation.]

The Sabres have found their groove a bit over the last ten games, posting a 7-3-0 record while helping bury the playoff prospects of a few of their opponents. Some of their wins have come against wild card hopefuls in Pittsburgh and Ottawa while they have also knocked off division leaders in Washington and Winnipeg. In other words, it’s not going to be an easy night for the Bolts.

The Lightning were on the wrong side of a 2-1 loss to Ottawa the other night, but it wasn’t a bad loss. Frustrating? Yes, but they did play fairly well for most of the game before being undone by a lack of finishing. There aren’t going to be many nights where the Lightning only score once while posting an expected goals of 3.80.

That being said, they could help themselves along by getting their power play running again. It’s been an on-and-off again special teams unit for them all season long, but of late they’ve been scuffling a bit again. After scoring with the man-advantage in four straight games, they’ve now gone three games without one, going 0-for-7 and giving up a short-handed goal.

In Ottawa, they went 0-for-3 with two first-period opportunities looking lackluster at best. They generated five shots on goal, but zero high-danger chances in those chances. Things looked much better late in the third period when Nikita Kucherov flipped over to the left side of the ice and they came close to tying the game while putting up two quality shots but generating three high-danger chances.

Coach Cooper has elected to go left-shot heavy on the top unit again of late, and it did seem to gum up the works a bit in their last outing. Ottawa virtually ignored Brandon Hagel in the left circle and focused their attention on taking away any slot opportunities and passing lanes for Nikita Kucherov. The Bolts were forced to work the puck around the perimeter and the Sens did a good job of blocking shots from the point at the first level, keeping the puck away from danger.

When Kucherov flipped to the other side, it seemed to cause some confusion in coverage for Ottawa, and he had a little more room to operate. He found Jake Guentzel in the slot for a quality shot, but Linus Ullmark was up to the challenge.

Overall on the season the power play has been very good, but not elite. At 25.1% they are ranked seventh in the league, and Jake Guentzel is leading the league (tied with Leon Draisaitl) in power play goals with 16. However, it has been extraordinarily streaky throughout the season. While power play scoring isn’t the be-all-end-all in playoff success, adding that component to a team that has been very, very good at 5v5 could be important.

The Bolts have a handful of games left to figure it out, and tonight would be a nice time to get it back on track.

Stats

Potential Lines

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Buffalo Sabres

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