Game Twenty-Seven: Tampa Bay Lightning (14-10-2) at Calgary Flames (14-10-5)
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, SN1, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -155
Let’s not kid ourselves, the game against the Edmonton Oilers wasn’t great. To use Coach Cooper’s exact exasperated words, “Gabby, that was a bad hockey game.” The Gabby he is referring to is Gabby Shirley, Lightning/FDSNSUN reporter and question-asker. With all of the offensive talent on the ice on Tuesday, the fact that it ended as with a 2-1 final speaks to how both teams struggled to find their offense.
What ended up burning the Lightning the most was their inability to keep the play in front of them, allowing the Oilers multiple breakaways. That is something that they had struggled with a bit over the last two seasons, but had scrubbed from their game for the most part this year. Could the new defensive pairings due to Erik Cernak’s absence have something to do with it? Sure, but it’s not like they haven’t played without him before.
There was a sense that the Bolts left a couple of points in Edmonton, primarily because it wasn’t like the Oilers were firing on all cylinders either. Tampa Bay did a decent job of suppressing their shots overall outside of the multiple breakaways, but they couldn’t quite crack the interior of the Oilers’ defense to pressure Stuart Skinner enough. There was a little push in the third period, a flickering dash of hope that they had pulled off the tie when Nick Paul batted in the puck with a high-stick, but it just wasn’t enough.
Tonight’s game presents a chance to put that performance behind them and get the offense back on track. Calgary isn’t quite as dominant inside their own zone as Edmonton is, so there could be some space for the Lightning to operate tonight, but it’s not going to be particularly easy.
When taken as a whole, Calgary’s statistical year has been pretty mundane. Their 5v5 defense is pretty okay, but it’s been undone by a bad penalty kill (73%). They give up a lot of shot attempts, but, like the Oilers, limit the chances from dangerous areas. However, at home, they have been really good and it’s reflected in their 10-3-1 record at the Scotiabank Saddledome. Only the Kings (1.24) have allowed fewer 5v5 goals on home ice than the Flames (1.33).
Unlike in Edmonton, a lot of that credit can go to the goaltenders. Calgary is giving up 28.17 scoring chances per 60 minutes on home ice, which ranks 26th in the league. Of those chances 10.72 are considered high-danger by Natural Stat Trick which is 21st. Thanks to the play of Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar, though, they are only allowing 0.97 high-danger goals per 60 minutes, which is 11th.
The duo has combined for a league-high .956 SV% on home ice overall while combining for a .861 HDSV%. Are those numbers sustainable? Probably not, but for the Lightning to start that number plummeting, they’re going to have to get in front of the net and force the goaltenders to make some stops, something they didn’t really do until late in the game in Edmonton.
If confusion on the defensive pairings highlights Cernak’s absence, then the lack of a net-front presence highlights Anthony Cirelli’s. A major part of his success this season has been his ability to establish position in front of goaltenders and whack away at rebounds or tip shots on net. Nick Paul just doesn’t play that type of game, and it was somewhat noticible in the Lightning’s last outing, as they struggled to pile up those dangerous chances.
Getting to the front of the net and retrieving pucks to maintain zone time are going to be keys to a victory tonight. It’ll also help alleviate pressure on their own net, after all, defense is a lot easier when the puck is 200 feet away from your own net.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Gage Goncalves – Conor Geekie – Cameron Atkinson
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont
Defense:
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – J.J. Moser
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltender:
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Calgary Flames
Forwards:
Jonathan Huberdeau – Nazem Kadri – Martin Prospil
Yegor Sharangovich – Mikael Backlund – Matt Coronato
Blake Coleman – Connor Zary – Andrei Kuzmenko
Jakob Pelletier – Kevin Rooney – Walker Duehr
Defensemen:
Kevin Bahl – Rasmus Andersson
MacKenzie Weegar – Danil Miromanov
Jake Bean – Brayden Pachal
Goaltender:
Dustin Wolf
Dan Vladar
