Game Eighteen: Tampa Bay Lightning (10-6-1) at Columbus Blue Jackets (7-9-2)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Nationwide Arena
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, FDSNOH, ESPN+, 102.5 FM
Odds: Lightning -180
After a bit of a shaky start to their game against the Penguins on Tuesday, the Lightning progressively played better and came back to nab a 3-2 overtime victory against Pittsburgh. While, on paper, it was a game that Tampa Bay should have won, the fact that they went out on the ice and secured two points was nice. In recent years, they have, at times, struggled to win games against struggling teams, littering their seasons with missed opportunities.
Tonight’s game represents another such chance as they head into Columbus to take on a Blue Jackets team that hasn’t had the easiest of seasons. The unexpected off-season death of Johnny Gaudreau cast a shadow over the start of what was hoped to be a season where some of their young talent started to blossom. After a decent start to the season that saw them end October with a 5-3-1 record, a long West Coast road trip left them mired in a six-game losing streak that sent them to the bottom of the Metro Divison.
They’ve rebounded a bit in their recent games, winning two of their last three games, including a 5-1 win over the Boston Bruins in their last outing. Offense, especially at 5v5, hasn’t been an issue as they are averaging 3.22 goals per game overall (12th in the league) and 3.02 goals per 60 at 5v5 (4th in the league). Keeping them out of the net has been a concern as they are 3.44 per game overall (24th) and 2.89/60 at 5v5 (25th).
Kirill Marchenko (6 goals, 10 assists) and Sean Monahan (6 goals, 9 assists) have led the way offensively as the team has put up five or more goals six times on the season already. The only problem is, if they don’t score five goals, they don’t win. Only once so far this year have they won with less than five goals, that being a 2-0 shutout over the New York Islanders on October 30th.
Teams have been able to get to the dangerous areas against them. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Blue Jackets are middle of the road in terms of shot attempts and unblocked shots against, but rank 26th in high-danger chances against (11.96/60) and 29th in high-danger goals against (1.58/60).
Over at hockeyviz, Micah’s data shows pretty much the same thing. Columbus is allowing a lot of shots from the middle of the ice, a trait that plays into what the Lightning like to do with the puck.
All three of their goals against Pittsburgh came from in close with Anthony Cirelli and Brayden Point (first goal) coming on plays from behind the net, while the game-winning goal was more of a transition play. Look for the Lightning to keep their cycle game going against the Blue Jackets and try for deflection or rebound goals in front of the net.
A key part to that game plan could revolve around the status of Nick Paul. He left Tuesday’s game against the Penguins in the second period with an apparent lower-body injury. If he is able to go, his ability to retrieve pucks and keep the play in the offensive zone will have a positive impact on the Lightning.
Based on the lines in practice, it looks like Cameron Atkinson will be returning to the line-up. The veteran spent his first ten seasons with Blue Jackets where he put up top-six numbers. It has been more of a struggle this season for him, and he’s been a healthy scratch over the Bolts last three outings. He has just one assist in 11 games this year and has struggled to make any sort of impact offensively or defensively when he’s on the ice.
It looks like he will take the place of Gage Goncalves on the third line if Paul is able to play tonight. For Goncalves, the night off will give a chance to catch his breath a bit. He’s played well, especially in the last couple of outings, but getting a chance to watch the game from the press box can provide a learning experience as well.
Coach Cooper has been keen on making sure no one on the roster has sat for too long this season, and it looks like that trend may continue on the defense as Nick Perbix is expected to rotate back in on the third pairing. Darren Raddysh has played the last three games and produced with 1 goal and 3 assists over that stretch. Perbix was a healthy scratch for the Penguins game, but played well against New Jersey and Winnipeg.
Columbus’ ability to score goals, especially since it isn’t restricted to just one line, should give the Bolts a little bit of a test tonight, but this is another game that, on paper, they should win. If they can match the intensity that they displayed in the third period against Pittsburgh, and limit their mistakes, they can end this road trip with a perfect record.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Nick Paul (?)
Cam Atkinson – Conor Geekie – Mitchell Chaffee
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont
Defense
Victor Hedman – J.J. Moser
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltenders
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forwards
Dmitri Voronkov – Sean Monahan – Kirill Marchenko
James van Riemsdyk – Adam Fantilli – Kent Johnson
Yegor Chinakhov – Cole Sillinger – Mathieu Olivier
Zach Aston-Reese – Sean Kuraly – Justin Danforth
Defense
Zach Werenski – Dante Fabbro
Jake Christansen – Ivan Provorov
Jack Johnson – Damon Severson
Goaltenders
Elvis Merzlikins
Daniil Tarasov
