Game Twenty-Six: Tampa Bay Lightning (14-9-2) at Edmonton Oilers (15-10-2)
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, SN1, TVAS-D, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, The Lightning App
Odds: Lightning +130
Of all of the games where the Tampa Bay Lightning could ill afford having two of their best defensive players out of the line-up, tonight’s match-up against the Edmonton Oilers isn’t the one they would circle on the schedule. While Edmonton might not be up to their usual high standards in regards to putting the puck in the net, they still have the best player in the game, Connor McDavid, doing his usual thing with 37 points in 24 games. So, having to keep him off of the score sheet, or at the very least, keeping him under three or four points, was always going to be a challenge, even if Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak were on the ice.
At the time of publication, we don’t know for sure that the two long-time Bolts will miss the game, but we do know that they left the 4-2 win over the Vancouver Canucks early, and they didn’t practice on Monday. The Lightning have yet to announce a call-up from Syracuse so, hopefully, whatever is ailing them isn’t serious. Based on the lines at practice yesterday, there wasn’t much of a shake-up for the forwards as Nick Paul slid back to the middle of the ice and Cameron Atkinson took his spot on the wing.
The defense, however, was flipped around quite a bit. Darren Raddysh skated with Victor Hedman while J.J. Moser dropped down to pair with Ryan McDonagh. That left Nick Perbix and Emil Lilleberg as a relatively normal third pairing. If Cernak isn’t able to go tonight, it is going to be an interesting game as the Lightning would be without their most relied upon defensive pairing.
Through 25 games, McDonagh and Cernak have logged 337.4 minutes of ice time at 5v5, by far the most of any pairing deployed this year. Not only have they been busy, they’ve been effective. According to Evolving Hockey, they have posted a 1.57 goals against while on the ice against, the best number on the team, and the seventh-best in the league for duos that have played more than 300 minutes together (props to Minnesota’s Jacob Middleton and Brock Faber for posting a minuscule 1.03 in 399.4 minutes).
So, no matter what combination Coach Cooper and Jeff Blaishill throw together tonight, there is a big void to fill. Of the potential combinations, the Hedman-Raddysh dup is one we’ve seen before, especially last year, as well in almost 87 minutes of ice time this season. If nothing else, they can provide offense, with the Lightning generating 3.47 goals for per 60 minutes while they’re together. Shutting things down…well, not so much as their 2.82 GA/60 is the third-highest of any pairing we’ve seen this year.
Some of that is bad luck as their xGA/60 is 1.80, but they do allow a lot of shot attempts against (51.39 CA/60). In about 35 minutes together this season the McDonagh/Moser pairing is allowing roughly the same amount of shot attempts (51.63) with even worse results (3.39 GA/60). Are we saying bet the over tonight? No, of course not, after all we are not a gambling advice website, but if we had to choose between it being a 2-1 final or a 5-4 final, well, we’d probably lean to the second.
Compounding the loss of Cernak is the possibility that Anthony Cirelli will also be out. Nick Paul may indeed do it all, but he’s not exactly commanding much talk about a possible Selke Trophy.
Luckily, it won’t all be on his shoulders to help keep McDavid under wraps. It’ll be an all-hands-on-deck approach to the game tonight with the Lightning focusing on not turning the puck over and limiting Edmonton’s chances. Part of the reason that the Oilers are ranked 16th in goals for at 3.04 per game is that, outside of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl it’s been a struggle for anyone to score.
McDavid is at 37 points and Draisaitl is at 36. After that, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is their next leading scorer with just 14 points. McDavid and Draisaitl lead the team with 19 goals and 13 goals respectively. Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard are a distant third with 6 goals a piece. If a team can shut down one of the two top players, they have a good chance at winning.
Edmonton could probably overcome the scoring gap if they were getting at least average goaltending, but Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard aren’t winning the Jennings Trophy with their matching .892 SV%. Evolving Hockey has them both under water in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected with Pickard at -3.58 and Skinner at -3.51.
If nothing else, the defense in front of them has protected them as much as possible. The Oilers are allowing just 8.97 high-danger chances against at 5v5, which is the fourth-best number in the league. Only the Carolina Hurricanes allow fewer shot attempts against as well.
The Lightning are going to have their work cut out for them in order to generate scoring chances tonight. With a make-shift second line, it’s going to be on the top line and the third line to generate offense tonight. We’ve seen signs of the Mitchell Chaffee-Conor Geekie-Gage Goncalves trio starting to click, but they need to start finishing off their chances. Geekie in particular is built to muscle his way into the tough areas, so he could be a key factor tonight.
We’ll update things as more information comes out, but if the Lightning are going to run their winning streak to three games, they will have to make sure to take care of the puck, stay out of the penalty box, and finish the limited chances that they get.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Nick Paul – Cameron Atkinson
Gage Goncalves – Conor Geekie – Mitchell Chaffee
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont
Defense:
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – J.J. Moser
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltender:
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Edmonton Oilers
Forwards:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Vasily Podkolzin – Leon Draisaitl – Kasperi Kapanen
Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique – Jeff Skinner
Corey Perry – Derek Ryan – Connor Brown
Defense:
Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Troy Stecher
Brett Kulak – Ty Emberson
Goaltender:
Stuart Skinner
Calvin Pickard
