Lightning at Panthers Game 3 Preview: Just find a way to win

Game Three: Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers (Florida leads series 2-0)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise

TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, TBS, TruTV, MAX, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning +120

Know the Opponents: Litterbox Cats

Story Lines and Notes

After spending two games talking about how the Lightning need to win, it just doesn’t matter any more. The Lightning just need to win. They can win 2-1, or 4-3, or 7-2, or 8-7. They just have to find a way to put this game in the win column. Win pretty, or win ugly, just win.

It’s not going to be easy, even if Aleksander Barkov isn’t able to go. The Panthers are going to come out flying as they take to home ice for the first time in the playoffs since their Stanley Cup victory, so expect the Bolts to have to weather an early storm of pressure. The Lightning have to keep their defensive shape and do what they did last game in their zone, prevent chances and get the puck out quickly.

They handled the Panthers forecheck much better in Game 2, and, as a result, were able to spend a little more time in the offensive zone. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to penetrate the inner sanctum around the crease to really pressure Sergei Bobrovsky on a consistent basis. Credit to the Florida defense for circling the wagons and forcing a ton of Lightning shots to go wide.

The Bolts had 20 shots miss the net on Thursday. Again, credit to the Panthers as they have a hand in that by stepping into shooting lanes and pressuring the shooters into getting rid of the puck before they want to. However, those large orange squares right in front of the Florida crease? Those are the Lightning getting to the right areas and missing the net from point-blank range. That means no rebounds, no forcing Sergei Bobrovsky to make a save, no scrambles in front of the net that could lead to defensive penalties from Panthers’ players.

In a nutshell, that chart sums up Game 2. The Lightning had their chances from prime scoring areas but they just couldn’t take advantage. It’s not like these chances were coming off of the stick of Zemgus Girgensons or Luke Glendening, those high-danger shots are mostly by the Lightning’s top two finishers in Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel. Those are shots that we expect them to not only get on net, but find the back of the cage, and they just didn’t go in.

Adding to the difficulty factor is the suspension of Brandon Hagel. Do we agree with it? Heck no, but at this point there is nothing we, or the Lightning, can do about it, so they need to find a way to fill his role for one game. The lines we posted below are our best guess as Hagel participated in practice, but Yanni Gourde and Anthony Cirelli (both should be fine to go today) did not.

We do expect Coach Cooper to go with an 11/7 rotation. Not only does it make sense with the Bolts being down one of their top forwards, it will give him a chance to move Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov around in the line-up for some potentially advantageous match-ups. If the Lightning are going to pull off this series comeback, they need those two to start burying their chances. It’s been well-documented that Kucherov is now on a 12-game goalless stretch in the playoffs. It’s no coincidence that the team has a 3-9 record during that time frame.

Today’s game is not a case of “next player up,” it’s a case of “all players up”. They have to elevate their game in order to upset the Panthers at home. They took a small step in doing that in Game 2, but they need to make a much bigger one today.

Stats

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

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Defense:

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Florida Panthers

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Defense:

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