Game Thirty-Two: Tampa Bay Lightning (18-11-2) at Florida Panthers (22-11-2)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, Scripps, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning +130
Alright. Let’s talk about a word today. It’s something we heard a lot about in the 2019-20 season, but haven’t really since then. That word – adversity.
Ryan McDonagh brought it up after the Lightning’s 4-2 loss against the Florida Panthers last night (hey, that’s the same team they’re facing tonight!). The quote in full, compliments of Ben Pierce:
“You don’t obviously play the same team two times in a row unless it’s playoffs, so it’s a good situation for us to respond and go on the road and win a gutsy one, kind of like they did tonight. So it’s good for us to have this adversity here before break.”
A quick rewind on the word “adversity” for the new folks around here. In 2018-19 the Lightning ransacked the regular season, gathering up 128 points and winning 62 games. In Game One of the opening round of the playoffs they built a 3-0 lead in the first period against the Columbus Blue Jackets. That lead evaporated by the third period and they were swept by the underdogs.
Following the surprising outcome, there was a lot of talk over the summer about the Lightning not facing any adversity during the season and they weren’t ready for it when it smacked them in the face in the playoffs. We heard a lot about it the next season when they went on to win the Stanley Cup in the bubble, and then the next season when they had to play without Nikita Kucherov for the entire (albeit shortened) regular season.
Guess who was here for all three of those seasons? Yup, Ryan McDonagh. So he knows a thing or two about a thing or two. Now, let’s fast forward to last night’s loss. The Lightning played well for much of the game, but some mental and physical mistakes drastically altered a power play and they couldn’t find the equalizer. And, for the first time this month, they were chasing a game where they weren’t the better team on the ice.
Sometimes a team needs a little adversity in their life in order to prevent becoming complacent. In the grand scheme of things, the Lightning are still playing really well. Yes, the power play was an issue, but in 83.4% of the games stretched over a season, if a team wins the 5v5 battle, they’re going to win the game (please note that stat is made up, but with the bulk of game action happening at even strength, it’s better to be better at 5v5). It just so happened on one night, that didn’t hold true.
So, now, just prior to a few days off, the Lightning have a little adversity standing in front of them. They’re heading on the road to face a division rival. They’re playing on a back-to-back. They will likely be starting their back-up goaltender, who has been, well, exciting to watch (both good and bad) this season. The Panthers will likely have their number one netminder in net.
A loss tonight sends them into the holiday break with some doubt and concern. So we will see what type of team they are this season. To their credit, they have been really good at containing their bad play this season and not letting it carry over from game to game, something that has plagued them over the last two seasons.
Adversity isn’t just a general concept either, it can apply to the in-game proceedings as well. Florida is a pain-in-the-ass team to play against. Like it or hate it, they are a team that is designed to get under an opponent’s skin, led by the cracked tooth smile of Matthew Tkachuk. Last night’s endeavor saw Brandon Hagel get cracked by an elbow and Nick Paul eat a high-stick.
It’s not just the physical nature. Florida plays a high-pressure game that limits space an opportunity. Both of those short-handed goals last night were the result of the Panthers pressuring the puck carrier. Yes, Nikita Kucherov whiffed on a dump-in, which happens once every thousand attempts, but the Panthers were there to pounce on the turnover. Eetu Luistarinen was on the spot to pick off Anthony Cirelli’s pass on the second goal. High pressure all over the ice causes adversity during a game.
It’s not just on their power kill that the Panthers pressure the puck-carrier entering the zone. Their defenders are among the most aggressive in the league at defending their blue line:
“You’re not going to have as many direct tape-to-tape passes. You’ve got to put pucks to areas, put pucks behind them, and use our speed that way. It’s almost area passes at times,” McDonagh noted after the game. The Lightning know how to beat an aggressive team like the Panthers (even if they’ve struggled to do so recently).
They need to exploit that aggressiveness and, this is the most important part, cash in on the opportunities that present themselves. If the defenders are stepping up to defend the blue line, chip it around them and be first to the puck to retrieve it. Use quick accurate passes to split the defense. More than anything, be willing to take a hit to make a play, much like Jake Guentzel did on Brayden Point’s goal last night.
Why did that play work (other than Brayden Point is extraordinarily good at hockey)? Panthers defenseman Niko Mikkola stepped up to hit Guentzel at the center red line. It’s an aggressive play by a defender who is trusting that he can either make the hit before Jake passes the puck, or that his teammates are in position to cut off the pass. Guentzel threw the puck to an open area, which allowed Point to skate into it. If that pass is directly at Point, it’s picked off by the retreating Panthers forward. The added bonus is that Point is able to gather it at top speed and beat Dmitry Kulikov to the point of attack. That is what McDonagh is referring to as far as playing the puck into open spaces.
Expect a physical game tonight. While the Lightning prefer to do their retaliation on the scoreboard when another team goons things up, they do have a breaking point, and if history is any indication, it will happen against the Panthers. They do have to be careful not to go out of their way to throw hits as Florida will exploit any openings caused by players getting out of position to throw a hit. Still, sometimes the best way to beat a bully is to punch him in the mouth.
The Lightning are being tested. They came up short last night, but tonight we will see if they’ve learned their lessons and execute their own game plan instead of letting the Panthers dictate things.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Geekie
Gage Goncalves – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont
Defense:
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltenders:
Jonas Johansson
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Florida Panthers
Forwards:
Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Sam Reinhart
Evan Rodrigues – Sam Bennett – Mackie Samoskevich
A.J. Greer – Tomas Nosek – Rasmus Asplund
Defense:
Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola – Dmitry Kulikov
Uvis Balinkis – Nate Schmidt
Goaltenders:
Sergei Bobrovsky
Spencer Knight
