Lightning at Canadiens Game Four Preview: The plot is thickening

Game Four: Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2) at Montreal Canadiens (2-1)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Centre Bell, Montreal, Canada

TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, ESPN, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -115

Know the Opponents: Habs Eyes on the Prize

If there have been any constants in the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season, the first is that if someone can get injured, they will get injured. The second is that they have played their best hockey when their backs have been against the wall. Their third periods have been their best, especially if they’re trailing in the game. When they’ve teetered on the brink of having teams pass them for playoff spots, they rallied. They might not be pressed against that wall yet, but like an outfielder on the warning track, they’re reaching behind them feeling for it.

Trailing 2-1 in the series, tonight’s game is a big inflection point. No matter what happens tonight, they’re heading back to Tampa, the big question is will they be tied at two games a piece, or in a 3-1 hole. The last few years they’ve been on the wrong side of that equation:

2025 – After winning Game Three, Lightning have a five-minute power play to begin the third period. They don’t score, Florida does right after and win 4-2, basically ending the series.

2024 – Down 3-0, Mikhail Sergachev’s return sparks a 6-3 win that staves off elimination for one more game.

2023 – Coming off an OT loss in Game 3, the Lightning let a three-goal lead slip away in the third period and Toronto comes back to win in overtime.

2022- They dropped the first two games against Colorado, beat the Avs in Game 3. They had a 2-1 lead heading into the third period but Andrew Cogliano tied it early and then Nazem Kadri won it in overtime.

So, one win in their last four series, all that they lost, and the win was when they were already down three games to none. With this series very winnable despite not playing at their best, the Lightning need to find a way to pull a win out.

How they do it isn’t really important. Win with power play goals – cool. Win with the top line dominating – cool. Win on a fluke goal by Corey Perry – cool. They just have to get back to being the Tampa Bay Find-a-Ways. The good news is that the building blocks are there.

They are playing sound defensive hockey, especially against the Canadiens’ top line. The goaltending hasn’t been the problem. They seem to have the short-handed issues sorted out, and they got a goal out of Brayden Point (on the power play no less).

The biggest issue has been putting pressure on Jakub Dobes. Has the Montreal shot-blocking got into their heads? Maybe a little as it seems they are trying to pick corners or looking for an extra pass instead of just shooting the puck. They have to be just a hair quicker getting their shots off, and more than anything, get to the rebounds and deflections.

It will also help if they start driving to the net off of the rush. The Lightning like to get into the zone, circle back and get shots from the points. The problem with that is that it allows their opponents to get back into their defensive shell. Against the Canadiens, that means packing the front of the ice with bodies to knock aside shots and passes. On entries the Bolts have to take it to the net at least once or twice, even if it leads one chance and out. They have to put it into the mind of Dobes and his buddy that it is an option.

A line that could lead that charge – Yanni Gourde, Dominic James, and whoever else is with them. They play a speed-based style and can find success if they attack the net. James in particular could be a factor in tonight’s contest. After a first game where he seemed a little tentative, he’s been more like the Dominic James Lightning fans enjoyed watching prior to his injury. He had a glorious chance in overtime in Game Two and has four scoring chances overall in his last two games.

Montreal won Game Three largely because their bottom-six was better than the Lightning’s. If the Lightning can flip that script tonight, this series heads back to Tampa tied at two games a piece and that wall gets a little farther away from their backs.

Potential Lines

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Montreal Canadiens

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