Game Forty-five: Tampa Bay Lightning (25-16-3) at Toronto Maple Leafs (29-16-2)
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, TVAS, NHL Network, Prime (in Canada), 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -105
Know the Opponents: Pension Plan Puppets
Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Lightning are 5-1-1 in their last seven games. It doesn’t feel like it, right? The Lightning haven’t been playing the cleanest hockey over their most recent stretch, but they’ve been picking up the points. The ability to keep moving up the standings despite not playing to the full potential is a hallmark of good teams. We’re not saying they’re a great team, great teams have the ability to play at their best at all times, but those teams are few and far between. Bad teams play badly and don’t get points (they also play well and don’t get points).
So the Lightning are stuck in that teeming mass of above-average teams that are bouncing off each other in pursuit of a playoff spot. The Maple Leafs have stayed comfortably above the fray for most of the season, and their 60 points has them a comfortable eight points clear of the wild card mess. Four of those points have come at the expense of the Lightning as Toronto has defeated them not once, but twice, this season. So, the Bolts should be sufficiently inspired to put forth a good effort in hopes of defeating the division leaders.
It’s not just this season that they’ve struggled against the Leafs. Over the past three seasons the Lightning are 3-4-2 against them and have been outscored 36-31. Oh yeah, and there was the 2023 playoff series where the Leafs ended the Lightning’s quest to make it to four straight Stanley Cup Finals by beating them in six games in the first round. So yeah, the Lightning would really like to take them out tonight.
It’ll be a good test for them as the Leafs are a physical (24.73 hits per game, 6th in the league), shot-blocking (15.97 per game, 9th in the league) team that can score (3.13 G/G, 11th in the league). They’re solid on special teams (21.6% power play, 81.4% penalty kill). They’ve played through a little adversity as well as Auston Matthews has only suited up for 32 games, and John Tavares is currently out of the line-up.
Unlike in years past, they aren’t completely reliant on the Core Four. Yes, Matthews has 35 points, and Mitch Marner is at 64 while Lightning-killer Willy Nylander is leading the team with 27 goals. So, yes they’re contributing, but Matthew Knies has 16 goals and Bobby McMann has 13. It’s going to be tough for Coach Cooper to match lines tonight unless the Lightning are able to get some offense from their bottom-six.
It was a mixed bag for for the swizzled third and fourth lines. Eyssimont, Geekie, and Girgensons generated five shots while surrendering five shots, but were out-chanced 4-2. Chaffee, Glendening, and Atkinson were caved in possession-wise 12-1 in shot attempts, and 8-1 in scoring chances, but they scored on their lone shot. They can’t afford to do that against the Leafs tonight.
Of course, if the stars play like they’re capable of, it might not matter how Atkinson and company play. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilveskiy can take over games. If they’re at their best, the Lightning have a really solid chance at picking up the win. During their seven-game stretch they have four players averaging a point a game or more:
Nikita Kucherov – 4 goals, 9 assists
Brandon Hagel – 3 goals, 4 assists
Victor Hedman – 2 goals, 5 assists
Jake Guentzel – 2 goals, 5 assists
Meanwhile Brayden Point has four goals and Anthony Cirelli has three. In the last two games, the Ducks and Red Wings gave the top lines a little space in the offensive zone, and the Bolts took advantage. Don’t expect that from Toronto tonight.
Special teams could be a factor as well. The Leafs have a solid penalty kill, but they are averaging more than three penalties against per game. The revamped Lightning power play has converted four of their last eight opportunities over the last two games.
It’s an important stretch of the season for the Bolts right now. Saturday’s game kicked off a stretch of four divisional games in their next five. They haven’t been at their best inside the division as they are 3-6 so far this season. As Brian Engblom pointed out ad nauseam in the game against Detroit, these are four-point games. If Tampa Bay can take three or four of them, they’ll be able to breathe a lot easier in the standings.
A win tonight will also make the statement that the Lightning are still a force to be contended with in the Eastern Conference.
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel | Brayden Point | Nikita Kucherov |
Brandon Hagel | Anthony Cirelli | Nick Paul |
Zemgus Girgensons | Conor Geekie | Mitchell Chaffee |
Mikey Eyssimont | Luke Glendening | Cameron Atkinson |
Defense:
Victor Hedman | Darren Raddysh |
Ryan McDonagh | Erik Cernak |
Emil Lilleberg | Nick Perbix |
Goaltenders:
Andrei Vasilevskiy |
Jonas Johansson |
Opponents
Forwards:
Matthew Knies | Auston Matthews | Mitch Marner |
Bobby McMann | Max Domi | William Nylander |
Max Pacioretty | Pontus Holmberg | Nick Robertson |
Steven Lorentz | David Kampf | Ryan Reaves |
Defense:
Morgan Rielly | Phillipe Myers |
Jake McCabe | Chris Tanev |
Oliver Ekman-Larsson | Conor Timmons |
Goaltenders:
Joseph Woll |
Dennis Hildeby |