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Lightning at Toronto Preview: What’s one step down from a rivalry?

Nov 6, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brayden Point (21) celebrates his goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Game Five: Tampa Bay Lightning (3-1) at Toronto Maple Leafs (3-2)

Time: 7:30 PM EST

Location: Scotiabank Arena

TV/Stream/Radio: NHLN, BSSUN, Prime (Canada), TVAS, 102.5 The Bone

Odds: Lightning +124

It would be wrong to say the Tampa Bay Lightning have a rivalry with the Toronto Maple Leafs. After all, the Leafs have been around for a million years, and have enough other teams that can be considered true rivals, be it Boston or Montreal. With both the Lightning and the Leafs lumped in the same division since the 2013-14 season, and with both franchises finding success over the last few season, they’ve developed, shall we say, a history.

Both organizations have built themselves into perennial playoff contenders. Both have legitimate superstar hall-of-famers on their roster. Both like to score goals. Both have, at times, displayed a casual approach to keeping pucks out of the net. Both wear blue and white. Both have demanding fan bases (even if Toronto’s is a bit bigger).

Granted, the Lightning do have one thing that the Leafs don’t – a Stanley Cup celebration that was shown in color TV.

On the ice, things are fairly close as well. Going back to the 2018-19 season, the numbers are fairly close, especially in regards to goals scored and allowed. Head-to-head, things have been fairly close as the teams have split their 18 match-ups. Officially, the Bolts are 9-6-3, scoring 68 goals while conceding 55. Overall, this is how the teams have fared during the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window overall:

StatTampa BayToronto
Games Played458459
Wins286270
Losses137137
Points607592
Goals Scored1,6111,612
Goals Against1,3171,363
Playoff Appearences66
Stats via the NHL

The postseason hasn’t been quite as close. While they’ve made the postseason the same amount of times, the Lightning have found way more success. They’ve played almost twice as many games and have 32 more wins.

Tampa BayToronto
Games Played8644
Wins5119
Losses3525
Goals Scored262114
Goals Allowed225125
Series Wins71
Stanley Cups20
Stats via the NHL

The two teams have played two thrilling series against each other, with Toronto holding the slightest of edges in wins (7-6) and goals scored (47-44). The Lightning also have the distinction of being the only team the Leafs have beaten in a playoff series in over two decades. So, if you’re keeping score, since the 2004-04 season the Leafs have two playoff series wins and the Lightning have three Stanley Cups.

Meeting in back-to-back postseasons amped up the dislike for each other, which is what the NHL was looking for when they changed their playoff seeding to a bracket system. The animosity that builds up in the playoffs series when there are real stakes on the line tends to bleed over into the regular season match-ups.

So, tonight’s game should be fun. It’s also the only game on the NHL docket tonight, so all eyes will be on the two. It’s always fun when the national media helicopters in for a regular season game and tells us all what we should know about our favorite team. So, expect to hear a lot of opinions about the Bolts and the Leafs all day today and through tomorrow.

The Lightning are looking to bounce back from a ragged outing against the Senators on Saturday where their power play continued to struggle and they had issues dealing with some of Ottawa’s speed early in the night. They’ll want to make sure they are handling the puck cleanly and moving it efficiently out of the zone. Giving Toronto multiple chances in the offensive zone is a sure-fire way to have a bad night.

Toronto lost their season opener to Montreal (oh no the sky is falling!) and then won their next three (start planning the parade!) before dropping their last outing to the Rangers, 4-1 (fire everyone!). Mitch Marner has gone from the guy everyone wanted traded this summer to leading the team in points with five (he’s tied with Max Domi) while William Nylander is pacing the team with three goals in five games.

Injuries in net have left them with a duo of Anthony Stolarz and Dennis Hildeby. The pair have played well with Stolarz posting a 1.97 GAA in his four starts while Hildeby picked up a win, allowing just 2 goals on 23 shots in his lone appearance. Joseph Woll is, at least according to new bench boss Craig Berube, day-to-day, but the Bolts are likely to see Stolarz tonight.

Berube was brought in to make the Leafs a little more disciplined, and it seems that he’s accomplished that through the first week-plus of the season. He’s making sure that they aren’t complacent and that they’re paying attention to the small details. Let’s be honest, a disciplined Leafs team is no where near as fun as the one that was caught squabbling on the bench during their playoff loss to Boston.

It should be a pretty high-pace game tonight as both teams look to establish themselves as early-season favorites in the Atlantic Division. Whatever the outcome is, expect it to be a close game. Over the last two regular seasons, only two out of their seven match-ups have been decided by more than two goals.

Potential Lines

Lightning Potential Lines:

Forwards:

Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov

Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Nick Paul

Mikey Eyssimont – Conor Geekie – Conor Sheary

Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mitchell Chaffee

Defense:

Victor Hedman – J.J. Moser

Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak

Darren Raddysh – Nick Perbix

Goalie:

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Toronto Maple Leafs Potential Lines:

Forwards:

Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitchell Marner

Bobby McMann – Max Domi – William Nylander

Pontus Holmberg – John Tavares – Nick Robertson

Steve Lorentz – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Defense:

Morgan Reilly – Chris Tanev

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Jake McCabe

Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins

Goalie

Anthony Stolarz

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