Division Leading New York Islanders (Lucky) at Division Leading Tampa Bay Lightning (Good)
Is it better to be lucky than good?
Islanders at Lightning: Game 16
Time: 7:30 pm Eastern Time
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: SunS, MSG+
Opponent SBNation Site: Lighthouse Hockey
The New York Islanders are in first place in the Metro Division. Granted, first place in the Metro would be tied for third in the Atlantic. But even so, this is not where most people expected the Islanders to be after fourteen games.
The team’s tumultuous offseason beginning with the loss of John Tavares and progressing to Lou Lamoriello signing every fourth-line forward free agent he could find made them obvious candidates to finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
Instead, this game against the Lightning is a matchup of two division leaders. And that begs the question, are the Islanders good? Fortunately for those of us who seek to find some degree order amidst the chaos of hockey, the answer is, “No. No they aren’t. They’re very bad just like everyone expected.”
The chart tells the story here. The Isles are bad offensively, average defensively, and bad overall. Their success is due entirely to percentage luck. They currently lead the NHL in 5v5 shooting percentage and are fourth in 5v5 save percentage. They will continue to win games for exactly as long as those numbers stay where they are. When those numbers fall back to a normal range, the Isles will start to lose buckets of games.
One of the fun things about hockey is that we don’t know when that correction will come. It could start tonight, next month, in the playoffs, or they could play like this the whole year and win the Cup. The outcomes of hockey games are at the whims of these types of percentage swings and as long the Isles continue to get this kind of luck, they’ll continue being the best bad team in the league.
The Lightning will enter tonight’s game once again without Victor Hedman and Ondrej Palat. Hedman is close to returning. He skated with the team in practice yesterday. That’s not the case for Palat. The team reported yesterday that he will miss at least another few weeks, which is a significant change from his initial day-to-day status.
That means we shouldn’t expect any changes to the lineup tonight. Yanni Gourde will continue to play on the second line with Brayden Point, and Slater Koekkoek will continue to play on the third pair with Dan Girardi.
Gourde has made the most of his chance to play in the top six. He has sixteen points in the first fifteen games to go along with Point’s nineteen. With both players surpassing a point per game while playing together, they have a compelling case to remain a tandom even when Palat returns to the lineup.
Koekkoek hasn’t seized his opportunity the way Gourde has but he’s been serviceable. He and Girardi have been a break-even pair in terms of shots and expected goals. That’s good enough for a third pairing defender but not enough to suggest that he should keep his place in the lineup when Hedman returns.
On paper, this is a game the Lightning should dominate. But the Isles would be quick to point out the game is played On Ice and not On Paper.
Tampa Bay Lightning
JT Miller - Steven Stamkos - Nikita Kucherov
Yanni Gourde - Brayden Point - Tyler Johnson
Alex Killorn - Anthony Cirelli - Mathieu Joseph
Adam Erne - Cedric Paquette - Ryan Callahan
Danick Martel, Ondrej Palat (injured)
Ryan McDonagh - Anton Stralman
Braydon Coburn - Mikhail Sergachev
Slater Koekkoek - Dan Girardi
Cameron Gaunce, Victor Hedman (injured)
Anders Lee - Brock Nelson - Josh Bailey
Anthony Beauvillier - Mathew Barzal - Jordan Eberle
Andrew Ladd - Valtteri Filppula - Leo Komarov
Ross Johnston - Casey Cizikas - Cal Clutterbuck
Nick Leddy - Ryan Pulock
Thomas Hickey - Scott Mayfield
Adam Pelech - Johnny Boychuk