The Tampa Bay Lightning want to sign Darren Raddysh. After all, it’s always easier to predict the future with known commodities. Unfortunately, teams don’t always get what they want, especially in free agency. There are a lot of factors out of their control that can determine where the Bald Eagle decides to nest next season. So, if he does take flight in free agency, can the Lightning bring someone else in to help fill the hole? Maybe.
In fact, there could be a player that is pretty much a drop-in replacement for Raddysh if you look at some of the underlying stats.
There is going to be a hockey card released some time next season that features John Carlson as an Anaheim Duck. And that’s going to be weird. Like Vinny Lecavalier as a Flyer weird. Olaf Kolzig as a Lightning weird. Yet, after 17 seasons and more than 1100 games as a Washington Capital, he was dealt at the deadline and helped the Ducks make it to the playoffs and into the second round.
He may not be a spring chicken anymore, but in his age 36 season, Carlson put up 60 points (14 goals, 46 assists) in 71 games. It was his third straight season, and fourth out of his last five, where he put up 50 or more points. More interesting to a team that could use a point man if Raddysh leaves, 14 of those points came on the power play. In his career he has 278 points with the extra skater in 1159 games.
Look, no one wants this Lightning team to get older, but on a one- or two-year deal, Carlson could be an interesting fit. He is a right-handed shot, he is a minutes-munching machine, and he has experience playing with high-end players. And, while he may be known for his offense, he isn’t entirely wanting on defense:
The Athletic has him ranked as the number four free agent on their early Big Board behind Raddysh, Rasmus Andersson and Alex Tuch, and the lack of impact defensemen could make him a pretty hot commodity. His age could play in the Lightning’s favor. He’ll turn 37 in January of next season, and isn’t likely to command more than two or three seasons at the most, something that could be appealing to Julien BriseBois.
If the Lightning don’t sign Raddysh, they will have a little bit of cap room to chase him down, and despite their fourth straight first-round exit from the playoffs, they will enter next season as one of the Eastern Conference favorites. So, the chance to win another Stanley Cup, and that easy Florida lifestyle could factor into his decision.
It’s easy to see his age and turn up your nose, but he is still one of the best skaters in the league among defensemen. NHL Edge stats had his top speed at 22.52 MPH last season, which ranked in the 84th percentile. Among all of their skating speed categories he was in the top half of the league.
His underlying metrics in regards to puck retrievals and breakouts are about average, but his offensive contributions will outweigh that. Carlson likes to have the puck in the offensive zone, and the Lightning’s system is geared towards defenders like that. He would also give Jon Cooper some flexibility. Could he take a spot on the top pairing with J.J. Moser? Sure, but he could also slide down to the third pairing if Coach Cooper flips Moser back to the left side of the ice.
J.J. Moser- John Carlson
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Victor Hedman – Max Crozier
or
Victor Hedman – J.J. Moser
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Charle-Edouard D’Astous – John Carlson
Having a bunch of defensemen that can play 15 minutes or so of 5v5 time isn’t a bad thing to have. Would signing him bump some players out of jobs, yes, but so would re-signing Raddysh. Again, not a bad problem, especially if Mr. BriseBois is able to flip one of those players for a different asset.
What kind of money would Carlson sign for? With the new salary cap, it’s kind of hard to say. Few people thought Charlie Coyle would command $6 million for 6 years, yet, that’s what he signed for. Carlson is coming off of deal that carried an $8 million cap hit, and it’s not likely that he will sign for that again, even on a shot-term deal. There were some projections early last year that had him signing a three-year deal at about $6.9 million and that still seems to be a reasonable number based on his production.
Hockey News
Report – Vegas denies second team from talking to Bruce Cassidy [Andy Strickland Twitter]
First, it was Edmonton. Now it appears that Vegas has denied the Los Angeles Kings from speaking with Bruce Cassidy about their open coaching position. Is it fair? Probably not, but he is still getting his checks from the Golden Knights, and they don’t seem too interested in having him sign with a division rival. Well, there is always Toronto.
Filip Gustavsson to have hip surgery [The Athletic]
The Wild are rumored to be shopping for a center, and Jesper Wallstedt is one of their big trade chips. Or at least he was until it was announced that Filip Gustavsson is going under the knife to have his hip repaired. With an uncertain timeline, general manager Bill Guerin may just have to hold on to Wallstedt for now.
2026 Draft Rankings – Reid, Smits, Verhoff top rankings [The Athletic]
Corey Pronman has three defenseman at the top of his rankings, although he mentions that there isn’t much separating them from Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg. The Lightning’s first pick will be #59 and Pronman has Filip Ruzicka as his 59th ranked prospect. He’s a 6’7″ goaltender playing for Brandon in the WHL. The only time the Bolts have drafted a goaltender in the second round was way back in 1993 when they selected Tyler Moss with the 29th pick of the draft.
The Flyers are ready to sign Dan Vladar, how much will it cost them? [Daily FaceOff]
Vladar has one more season left on the two-year deal that he signed last summer, but is eligible for an extension. Has he shown the Flyers enough to earn a big raise? Does he cash in on his big year, or does he wait and see if another strong season can make him even more money in the summer of 2027.
Backchecking the Bolts [Youtube]
Justin and Jason chitchat about free agents, prospects, defensemen, and the playoffs. Please subscribe at your favorite podcast location.
Canadiens 3, Sabres 2 (OT) [Canadiens win 4-3]
The new Mr. Game 7, Alex Newhook, ended it on the rush in overtime. Montreal’s season lives on as they head to Carolina.
