Game Seventy-four: Tampa Bay Lightning (43-25-5) at New York Islanders (32-31-10)
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Location: UBS Arena, Elmont
TV/Stream/Radio: Hulu, Disney+, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -175
Know the Opponents: Lighthouse Hockey
Story Lines and Notes
Ladies, gentlemen, and all those that chose to not identify as either – welcome to the last three weeks of the regular season. We’ve almost made it. The Tampa Bay Lightning are off on their final road trip of the season (we’re not counting their last game against the Rangers) with a couple of goals in mind. One, clinch a playoff spot. By our calculations, their magic number is five, with the Columbus Blue Jackets as the team to watch. Two, show their coach and the rest of the league that they can win on the road.
The second goal might be the more important of the two. Even if the Lightning end up with home-ice advantage in the playoffs, they’re still going to have to find a way to win on the road in the postseason, something they haven’t consistently done so far this season. With a 16-17-3 road record, they join the Montreal Canadiens (16-18-4) as the only teams in the Eastern Conference currently holding a playoff spot with a losing road record. (The L.A. Kings are somehow the 5th seed in the West with a 14-19-5 away record).
It’s been a multi-season struggle on the road for the Bolts as they finished 18-22-1 in 2022-23 and needed a late run in 2023-24 to finish 20-18-3 (they went 6-2-1 over their last nine road games). Currently they’re riding a two-game losing streak away from Amalie, having dropped games to Utah and Vegas on their last road trip.
Their performance across the board dips when they go away from the friendly confines
| 5v5 Stat | Home | Away |
| Goals For | 3.06 | 2.46 |
| Goals Against | 1.68 | 2.66 |
| Scoring Chances For | 27.27 | 26.65 |
| Scoring Chances Against | 25.59 | 25.78 |
| High-Danger Chances For | 11.7 | 10.84 |
| High-Danger Chances Against | 9.53 | 10.33 |
| Shooting Percentage | 10.98% | 9.14% |
| Save Percentage | .943 | .901 |
It is worth noting that the bulk of the starts by back-up goaltenders have been on the road this season, and that has contributed to the massive dip in save percentage, but even Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t been as good on the road as he has a .905 SV% at 5v5 away from Amalie Arena as compared to his .947 at home.
Coach Jon Cooper does seem to be trying to address the match-up concerns on the road with his recent heavy reliance on an 11/7 line-up, which allows him to double-shift some of his better players in an attempt to get them on the ice against lesser defensive units. There is no reason to think he won’t continue that trend over the next few games (ed. note – that almost guarantees Mitchell Chaffee is back in the line-up tonight).
As for the Islanders, well, they’ve hit the desperation stage. The road trip didn’t go the way they wanted, and now they’re seeing their playoff chances dwindle on a daily basis. Expect them to come out fast and determined at home, and the Bolts will have to find a way to weather that storm (other than rely heavily on Andrei Vasilevskiy to make all of the saves).
Stats
| New York | 5v5 Stats over Last 10 Games | Tampa Bay |
| 2.45 | GPG | 3.34 |
| 2.82 | GAPG | 2.26 |
| 12.9% | PP% | 25.0% |
| 85.7% | PK% | 88.0% |
| 50.55% | 5v5 Shot Attempt % | 54.28% |
| 53.26% | 5v5 High Danger Chances % | 51.48% |
| 8.51% | 5v5 Shooting % | 12.07% |
| .896 | 5v5 Save % | .906 |
| Bo Horvat – 4 Pierre Engvall – 4 | G Leader – all situations | Brayden Point – 6 |
| Tony Deangelo – 6 Noah Dobson – 6 | A Leader – all situations | Nikita Kucherov – 12 |
| Bo Horvat – 8 Tony Deangelo – 8 Noah Dobson – 8 | P Leader – all situations | Nikita Kucherov – 17 |
| Adam Pelech – 8 | PIM Leader – all situations | Yanni Gourde – 11 |
| 3-4-3 | Record | 6-3-1 |
Potential Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
| Jake Guentzel | Brayden Point | Nikita Kucherov |
| Brandon Hagel | Anthony Cirelli | Nick Paul |
| Gage Goncalves | Yanni Gourde | Oliver Bjorkstrand |
| Zemgus Girgensons | Luke Glendening | Mitchell Chaffee |
Defense:
| Victor Hedman | J.J. Moser |
| Ryan McDonagh | Erik Cernak |
| Emil Lilleberg | Darren Raddysh |
Goaltenders:
| Andrei Vasilevskiy |
| Jonas Johansson |
New York Islanders
Forwards:
| Anders Lee | Bo Horvat | Kyle Palmieri |
| Simon Holmstrom | J.G. Pageau | Anthony Duclair |
| Pierre Engvall | Casey Cizikas | Hudson Fasching |
| Maxim Tsyplakov | Kyle Maclean | Marc Gatcomb |
Defense:
| Ryan Pulock | Noah Dobson |
| Adam Pelech | Tony Deangelo |
| Adam Boqvist | Alexander Romanov |
Goaltenders:
| Ilya Sorokin |
| Marcus Hogberg |
