We’ve made it through the first month of the hockey season, well partial month, and it’s been an interesting ride. It started with the Tampa Bay Lightning spending a little more time in Carolina than they expected thanks to the back-to-back storms that ripped through the area, and ended in Colorado as they set out on their first mid-west trip of the season. There have been some good times, some not-so-good times, and one really emotional return. Overall, it was a strong start, but there is still some work to be done.
The Bolts finished the month 7-3-0 and their 14 points puts them fifth in the NHL and second in the Atlantic, one point behind the Florida Panthers (although with a better winning percentage) and three points ahead of the Maple Leafs. It was imperative that they get off to a good start with the playoff race in the Eastern Conference expected to be tight all season long. So far that has proven to be true as only six points separate the team at the top (New Jersey) and the team in ninth place (Ottawa).
Surprisingly, it’s been the 5v5 play that has propelled the Lightning to the top portion of the standings. Special teams, such a strength last season, have been a bit of a problem. They’ve struggled to find their form on the power play, with the losses of Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev looming large as they try and find their form. They’ve connected on just 5-of-34 chances for a 14.7% success rate that ranks 25th in the league. Most jarring is the fact that they’ve spent 3:58 of ice time, the most in the NHL, with a 5-on-3 advantage without scoring a goal.
Meanwhile, the penalty kill has scuffled along as well at 72.2%, which is 26th in the league. With most of the same personnel killing off the penalties, it’s a little perplexing that they’ve struggled as much as they have when down a skater. They do have two short-handed goals, which is nice, but Coach Cooper would probably trade those for two fewer goals allowed.
The good news is that the area of the game they focused on improving the most over the summer, 5v5 play, has drastically improved from year over year. Especially, compared to the start of last season. If we flashback to October of 2023, things were still a bit wonky for the Lightning. They were adjusting to life without Andrei Vasilevskiy, and trying to figure out a few new defensive combinations.
This year, Vasy is back, and things have been a bit more stable. That has led to an overall better performance. The biggest change has been that the goals have been going in. Still, as the chart below shows, the Lightning have improved in pretty much every aspect of their 5v5 game compared to last season.
| 5v5 Stats and league-wide rankings | 2023-24 (4-2-3) | 2024-25 (7-3-0) |
| GF/60 | 2.59 (13th) | 3.93 (2nd) |
| xGF/60 | 2.24 (29th) | 2.49 (16th) |
| GA/60 | 2.72 (20th) | 2.16 (8th) |
| XGA/60 | 2.98 (29th) | 2.43 (12th) |
| SCF/60 | 27.36 (17th) | 29.04 (7th) |
| SCA/60 | 27.9 (21st) | 27.78 (20th) |
| HDCF/60 | 11.02 (15th) | 12.43 (9th) |
| HDCA/60 | 11.71 (22nd) | 12.43 (27th) |
| Save Percentage | .920 (16th) | .932 (6th) |
| Shooting Percentage | 9.36% (10th) | 13.7% (3rd) |
The improvement in shooting and save percentages have been huge factors in their early success, and are huge indicators of the talent they have on their team. Some of the underlying numbers aren’t as rosy, especially the scoring chances and high-danger chances against. Coach Cooper has mentioned that is something they need to work on, and improve.
It would be worth pointing out that these numbers from Natural Stat Trick have not been adjusted for score or venue, and doing so does adjust the numbers slightly in the Bolts favor. It’s an indication that Tampa Bay has been playing with the lead a lot more than they did last season, and, more importantly, they’ve often played their best hockey in the third period. They’ve outscored opponents 14-8 in all situations over the final 20 minutes, their best goal differential of any period so far this year. Oddly enough, while the Lightning have visibly struggled in second periods this year, they are still outscoring their opponents 14-11 in the middle frame in all situations.
Part of the reason they’ve had success is that they aren’t relying on just one line for their offense this season. Yes, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done by the top line, and the addition of Jake Guentzel has been everything they needed it to be, but the Cirelli line has provided some goals as well. There has also been a sense of stability in the combinations. Once the team made the decision to send Conor Sheary down and place Conor Geekie on the second line, there hasn’t been a lot of juggling around. Coach Cooper has switched up the lines at times during games, but for the most part he’s rolled out the same line-up from game to game.
| Goals For | Goals Against | xGF% | |
| Guentzel – Point – Kucherov (124 minutes) | 12 | 3 | 53.43% |
| Hagel – Cirelli – Geekie (46 minutes) | 5 | 2 | 66.84% |
| Eyssimont – Paul – Chaffee (51 minutes) | 1 | 1 | 31.44% |
| Girgensons – Glendening – Atkinson (28 minutes) | 0 | 0 | 47.13% |
Look, the fourth line hasn’t generated any offense whatsoever, their 0.74 expected goals for is ranked 160th among trios who have spent at least 20 minutes together on the season. The good news is that their 0.83 expected goals against is 28th in the league, and they are only allowing 30.16 shots per 60 minutes, by far the lowest number of any of the current line combinations. They are the line where offense goes to die, which for a fourth line isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
If the fourth line has been low-event, the new second line has been chaotically active. They’ve generated 30.2 shots per 60 while allowing 34.14 per game. While they have allowed a lot of shots, they haven’t given up a lot of dangerous chances as their 1.68 expected goals against per 60 minutes is the best mark on the team.
As for the third line, well, they are still finding their way a bit as they are chasing the puck a little right now. They have the tools to be a decent checking line, but the question will be if they can generate any offense on a consistent basis. Mitchell Chaffee is starting to emerge as the finisher on the line with three goals on six shots. He should probably get around to shooting a bit more as he’s shown a knack for scoring in his limited time in the NHL so far. It’s unlikely he’ll sustain a 50% shooting percentage through an entire season, but he finished at a respectable 14.8% last season.
If the Bolts can carry forward their 5v5 play while figuring out their special teams, they have a chance to solidify their spot among the top teams in the Eastern Conference. November is going to be a tough test for them as they have games against Winnipeg (2x), Dallas, Washington, and Toronto, and they can’t afford to slip into any bad habits.
Some quick thoughts about the first ten games
- Best overall win – October 15th – 4-1 win over Vancouver
- Worst overall loss – October 19th – 5-4 loss to Ottawa
- MVP – Nikita Kucherov – 9 goals, 8 assists, 5.14 iXG
- Is Andrei Vasilevskiy “back”? Pretty close as he’s posted a .911 SV%, 2.47 GAA, and a 3.25 GSAx despite the wonky game against Toronto.
- By December 1st, Conor Geekie will see time on the top power play unit. His one-timer could play well from the left circle.
