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Three things to build on from an unsuccessful road trip

Jan 24, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) celebrates his goal with center Jake Guentzel (59) and defenseman Victor Hedman (77) against the Chicago Blackhawks during overtime at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

Look. We get it. The Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t exactly rolling through the competition right now. They just played four games on the road, lost three of them, and the one they won took overtime against a team currently ranked 32nd in the league. Cool. That doesn’t mean there weren’t some things to pull from the four games and build on as they kick off a home stand against that very same 32nd-ranked team (it’s Chicago).

Despite their struggles, most of the major playoff prediction polls still have the Bolts finishing with enough points to make the postseason. They still have a couple of games in hand with the teams they’re chasing, and they should be getting a boost on defense soon with J.J. Moser’s return. So let’s take a look at some things that should give you a little optimism for the next 30+ games.

Nikita Kucherov is still Nikita Kucherov

The Lightning scored nine goals during their four-game road trip (yes, that’s a problem, but we’re being positive here), and Nikita Kucherov had a hand in five of those (2 goals, 3 assists). He led the team with 18 shots on goal and 32 shot attempts while averaging 25:49 on ice. Coach Cooper leaned on his best offensive player heavily, and Kucherov responded with points in three of the games.

Even when he messed up good things happened. Case in point – the overtime winner against Chicago, which was most likely supposed to be a slap-pass to Jake Guentzel in the slot.

Oddly enough, the best game he played was the one he didn’t record a point, the 2-0 loss to Detroit. While his eleven-game point streak game to an end, he was all over the ice in his 26:13 of ice time. He had eleven shot attempts, seven shots on goal, four individual scoring chances, and he was even credited with a hit. With the Lightning deploying an 11/7 rotation, Kucherov was up and down the line-up playing at least 3 minutes with 7 different forwards (oddly, he was not credited any time on the ice with Conor Geekie).

If and when the Lightning restart the engines after this month-long stall, Nikita Kucherov is going to be a key part of it, and he’s showing that he’s up to the challenge.

Special Teams are Special

At first glance, the 75% penalty kill for the Lightning over the four-game stretch doesn’t look great, especially for a top-ten team in that category. However, a little deeper look shows that there were some positives with the penalty kill. First off, they were only short-handed eight times total over the four games, with three of those coming against Detroit. The teams they were playing all had tons of speed up front, which usually gives the somewhat stationary Lightning defense a little bit of issue.

As for the goals that they allowed, one of them was a pure goal-scorer’s goal. The Lightning had Montreal defended pretty well, but Juraj Slafkovsky fit the puck in a puck-sized hole against the post. Tampa Bay will take teams shooting from that location 100 out of 100 times on the power play.

The other goal, Matthew Knies’ power play goal, was one you don’t like to see as he way too much time in front of Jonas Johansson to put home a rebound.

Four a team playing four road games, and two back-to-backs, it was a solid effort short-handed.

On the other side of the special teams coin, the power play seems to have reasserted their effectiveness after some re-swizzling of the lines. They scored in two of the four games and finished 4-for-9 on the trip. Yes, three of those goals came in one game, but it came against a team that is ranked eleventh on the penalty kill.

The Lightning went through a little funk with the power play from the middle of December to early January where they converted at a 19% success rate. More importantly they weren’t generating chances or shots on net as they averaged 29.36 SF/60 with an 4.84 xGF/60 on the power play from December 19th to January 5th (the end of the California road trip).

During their most recent road trip those numbers bounced up to 56.14 SF/60 and a 10.67 xGF/60. They were spending more time in the zone and generating more chances. One of the main reasons they’ve generated more chances is that they’ve let Nikita Kucherov stay on the ice. Based on our rudimentary public-school math the Lightning had 17:55 of power play ice time on the road trip. Kucherov was on the ice for 17:34 and he had one goal and two assists.

To their credit, they spread out the goals as Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Mitchell Chaffee, and Nick Paul recorded goals. They really are rolling out a 1A and 1B unit now as Brayden Point and Victor Hedman have been split up with Mitchell Chaffee getting a little more time with top players.

One of the interesting notes is that the 1B unit, which is comprised of Nick Paul, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, Hedman, and Kucherov is an all left-shot unit. The two big right-shot forwards (Point and Chaffee) are on the other unit and have been rotating in and out of the bumper position.

The Lightning have pretty much evolved away from the tactics we’ve been used to over the last four or five years, and it seems to have injected some life of late.

The defensive play has been solid

During the four-game road trip the Lightning allowed 2.65 goals against at 5v5 per 60 against an expected goals of 2.24. They allowed 24.12 scoring chances per 60 with 6.47 high-danger chances. The high-danger chances number was the best in the league over that time frame and is well below their season average of 9.53 HDCA/60. Considering they were without two of their top four defensemen (Moser and Erik Cernak) for three of those four games, it was even more impressive.

Andrei Vasilevskiy was solid in net in his two starts as he posted a 2.00 GAA, .923 SV%, and 1.85 GSAx. It’s a testament to the offensive struggles of late that he went 0-2 on the road trip with those numbers. Jonas Johansson struggled a bit as he was credited with 3.50 GAA, .829 SV%, and -2.81 GSAx. Even with those numbers he kept the Lightning in the game against the Maple Leafs (his one loss) as the Lightning were within a goal for the majority of the night.

Most NHL coaches will stress that it’s more important to keep pucks out of your own net as to filling the opponent’s net. If the Lightning had been shelled at 5v5 on this road trip, there would be a little more cause for concern. Even adjusting for score effects, the Lightning were above water in regards to scoring chances (54.93%), high-danger chances (66.84%), and expected goals (57.40%). They are doing a lot of good things, but the puck just isn’t going into the net (4.94% shooting percentage at 5v5). Keep executing and the goals will come.

Bonus:

Look at this photo. What an excellent photo. Eyes on the puck!

Jan 24, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Arvid Soderblom (40) watches the puck after a save against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
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