The festivities in Nashville this weekend are a bit of a misnomer. By definition the Tampa Bay Lightning don’t have that many actual rookies making the journey. Of the 23 players on the roster, exactly zero of them are guaranteed to make the roster to start the year. If things break right, maybe six see a call-up at some point during the season. The one player that has the best chance to make the roster, Emil Lilleberg, exceeded the games played mark for rookie status last season.
Now that we’re done being pedantic about the name of the tournament, let’s break down what we’re hoping to see over the next few days at the Lightning prospects take on fellow youngsters from Nashville, Florida, and Carolina.
Stay Healthy
Last year’s event saw Roman Schmidt pick up a lower-body injury that slowed down his season a bit. He still ended up having a decent year, especially following his trade to Kingston, but the Lightning as an organization can’t really afford any delays in their prospect development. They’re entering a stage of transition as a franchise as their veterans are starting to age out of their primes and there will be a lot of roster question marks in the next few seasons.
The current crop of prospects have already been through one hiccup in the traditional development path with the COVID-shortened seasons of 2020 and 2021. While it took place pre-draft for the majority of the players (Max Crozier is the only pre-2020 draft on the roster) they were all in their junior/high-school years when the interruption happened. In a sense, they are still making up for some of those games.
Since the bulk of the players we will be seeing this season aren’t predestined for NHL success, they really do need all of the time on the ice they can get to improve and to show the coaches and staff how they are developing through the year. Any time spent on the sidelines rehabbing a blown-up knee or broken foot will make that fight for recognition even harder. Being out of the spotlight for even a month or two can allow other players to leapfrog a prospect on the depth chart.
How close are the top prospects to being ready?
Two of the Lightning’s top three prospects will be in the showcase this weekend. While Isaac Howard is getting ready for another college season at Michigan State, Ethan Gauthier and Conor Geekie will be in Nashville and on the ice. Geekie, who came over in the Mikhail Sergachev deal this summer, is regarded by outside media as the top prospect in the system. The 20-year-old has first-round pick pedigree, NHL-size, and a commitment to defense that coaches love.
He is considered on the verge of making the team, but the Lightning, as a whole, are cautious to rush players through the system unless injuries force their hand. Geekie will need a strong showcase and training camp to work his way into a spot into the opening night roster, especially since he is waiver-eligible and can be assigned to the AHL.
Ethan Gauthier has pretty much accomplished everything he can at the junior level. He put up 71 points in 64 games in the regular season and then took it to another level in the Memorial Cup with 25 points (14 goals, 11 assists) in 19 games.Yet, since he is still just 19-years-old, if he doesn’t make the team, he will have to go back to Drummondville for another season.
The big forward had a strong showcase last fall and really raised his profile among the Bolts’ prospects. If he has another big tournament and training camp, he could force the Lightning to give him an extended look in the NHL. It’s been eight seasons since a young Brayden Point leapfrogged the AHL and earned a spot on the Lightning roster straight out of junior hockey.
To find a player who played in his age-19 season with the Lightning you have to go all the way back to 2014-15 when Jonathan Drouin appeared in 70 games with the Bolts. Since then there have only been a handful of players 21-or-under that have even appeared in a game. Hugo Alnefelt was 20 when he made a COVID-forced start in 2021. Gabriel Fortier was 21 when he made his 10-game debut in the same season. Jack F’N Thompson was also just barely able to celebrate with an adult beverage when he played in his first NHL game last year. The last young impact player prior to Point to play consistently was Sergachev.
In short, the Lightning don’t make it a habit of promoting young players to the NHL. Gauthier would likely benefit from an exception to play in the AHL, but the current agreements between the professional leagues and the CHL don’t allow for it. If he is impressive over the next month of play, the Lightning could keep him around for a 10-game stint prior to sending him back to the QMJHL since he has already signed his entry-level contract.
For a couple of other prospects, it will be their first chance to show the staff that they might be ready for some NHL time during the season. Dylan Duke and Niko Huuhtanen made their Syracuse debuts last season and looked alright. Duke appeared in three regular season games and five playoff games after joining the team following Michigan’s elimination from the Frozen Four. He showed a willingness to play in front of the net and seems to be developing into an Anthony Cirellie/Alex Killorn-type of front-line grinder. With a spot open on the bottom-six, the Bolts could be interested in trying him out there if he has a strong camp.
Huuhtanen made his North American debut in the playoffs with two assists in four games. He definitely looked more comfortable and involved as the series went along and looks like he’ll be an absolute delight in Syracuse. With his professional experience in Europe, size, and physical play, he could see himself in Tampa shortly. The coaching staff will be looking to see if his skating has reached the level needed to at least stay with the play at the highest level.
The professional debuts
While not many players are going to be rookies at the NHL level, there are a few that will qualify for rookies at the AHL level. Duke and Huuhtanen retain their rookie eligibility and they will likely be joined by Roman Schmidt, Milo Roelens, Gabriel Szturc, and Dyllan Gill in Syracuse. After a few development camps and practices with the Crunch, it’s time for them to start their professional careers. This weekend gives the coaching staff and fans a solid baseline as to how they will compete against fellow professionals.
After this it will be a few weeks in the Lightning’s training camp, followed by the Crunch’s own training camp. While they are likely to make the AHL roster, it’s not a given and they have to show the staff that they aren’t taking anything for granted or else they will be on the first shuttle to Orlando. There is a lot of opportunity in Syracuse this year and they should do their best to seize the chance. They have the chance to leave a solid impression with the Lightning coaches and staff, and while they won’t see a NHL promotion out of it this year, they can move their names to the top of the list for future seasons.
Gage Goncalves and Max Groshev have done that in the past and they are now on the verge of NHL call-ups after just a couple of seasons.
So, these are just a few of things to keep an eye on starting tonight at 6:00 PM EST as the Lightning prospects take on the Carolina Hurricanes youngsters. If you want to watch, the games will be streaming on the Lightning’s website.
