Time for a little separation: Canadiens at Lightning Preview

Game Seventy-Four: Montreal Canadiens (42-21-5) at Tampa Bay Lightning (46-21-6)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Benchmark International Arena, A stone’s throw away from the home of Phoebe the Flamingo

TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -170

Know the Opponents: Eyes on the Prize

While everyone (and by everyone, we mean us) has been focused on catching the Buffalo Sabres, the Montreal Canadiens have slowly been lingering right behind the Tampa Bay Lightning, steadily winning games and picking up points. They enter tonight’s contest on a five-game winning streak, beating down the Metro Division with wins over Carolina (twice), the Islanders, and the Blue Jackets.

They are currently sitting four points behind the Lightning and the Sabres with the same amount of games played as Tampa Bay and one fewer than Buffalo. One thing to note is that they have 10 overtime/shoot-out losses. As of right now, they would lose out on any tie-breaker scenarios with the two teams they’re chasing.

After a wild start to the month where they allowed 16 goals in three games during a trip to the West Coast, they’ve locked down things defensively. Over their last twelve games, they’re allowing 1.95 GA/60 at 5v5. Considering they are still allowing a considerable amount of scoring chances (30.64) and high-danger chances (13.52). Can you guess what that means?

Yup. They’re getting some pretty good goaltending. Over that stretch, Jakub Dobes has posted a 16.52 GSAx with a .937 SV%, and a 1.88 GAA. Rookie Jacob Fowler is 3-1-0 with a 2.52 GAA, .907 SV%, and a 1.57 GSAx. So yeah, that’s pretty good.

While the goaltending is stopping the puck, the forwards are doing a decent job of putting the puck in the net. Captain Nick Suzuki is leading the charge with 23 points (7 goals, 16 assists) in 14 games during the month of March. Cole Caufied has been their primary goal scorer with 11 while they have a total of five players averaging at least a point a game.

The Suzuki, Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky line has been a true number one line with the Canadiens producing 3.62 GF/60 when they’re on the ice. They are also generating 54.55% of the shot attempts and 53.99% of the expected goals. They play with speed and skill and will give the Bolts some trouble. The big question will be if the Bolts can play that line to at least a draw, and then have the advantage when that trio is on the bench.

Tampa Bay should have an advantage when it comes to special teams. In the month of March, the Canadiens are struggling a bit, stopping just 73.5% of the opportunities against them. The Bolts haven’t been as crisp over the last few games with the extra skater (especially with Nikita Kucherov out of the line-up) but they are still at 25.6% for the month.

The Bolts have taken both games in the season series so far, scoring ten times in the two meetings. With the way Doubes and Fowler are playing right now, the goals aren’t likely to flow quite as frequently. The Lightning have been doing a decent job of limiting the scoring chances (25.67/60) and high-danger chances (10.74/60) even if the goals have been trickling in a bit more than usual.

If they can keep the Habs in front of them, especially the Suzuki line, they have a good chance of limiting some of the offense against them. It’ll also help if they keep the pressure on the Montreal defense. The Canadiens’ defense can be leaned on a bit, and that will be the best way to keep the puck out of the net.

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

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Montreal Canadiens

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