While the Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t been caught up in the frantic activity prior to the Free Agent Frenzy, they have found their name in the mouths of media personalities regarding some of the bigger names on the trade/free agent market. John Carlson and Dylan Larkin early in the process. Now it’s Zach Werenski. The reigning Norris Trophy winner appears to be headed out of Columbus prior to the end of his contract. More than one, but most notably, Pierre LeBrun, have tied the soon-to-be 29-year-old defender to the Lightning.
So, what should we make of the rumors? First off, let’s start by stating the obvious. Adding a 29-year-old defenseman coming off of back-to-back 80-point seasons that is under a reasonable ($9.58 million) cap hit for two seasons is a no-brainer. If someone was bummed out because the Lightning traded Darren Raddysh, well, here is the one player that can put up even more offense from the blue line.
The two years of control is a nice added bonus. It’s also going to cost a team trying to acquire him a little bit more than a one-year rental would be. Do the Lightning have the assets needed to make this deal? Maybe. Columbus doesn’t seem to be interested in going through another complete rebuild, so first-round picks probably won’t be top on their priority list. Young, NHL-ready players would likely outweigh a 2027 or 2028 draft pick. Which is nice for the Lightning.
Any deal with the Blue Jackets likely starts with J.J. Moser. The 26-year-old may not be able to rack up the points like Werenski, but he would step right in on the top-pairing for Columbus, and fits in age-wise with some of their other core players. Moving his $6.75 million contract the other way would also offset some of the $9.5 million coming in with Werenski. Most importantly, Moser doesn’t have any trade protection this season as no-trade doesn’t kick in until next July.
The trade won’t be one-for-one, and the Lightning would need to throw some more into the deal. Would Columbus be willing to accept a player like Sam O’Reilly who doesn’t have NHL experience, but projects to be a strong middle-six, two-way player. Is Benjamin Rautiainen intriguing enough for the Lightning to capitalize on the current hype to include him? Does Columbus believe they can unlock Conor Geekie at the NHL level? If the answer is yes to any of those questions, there is enough in common between the two teams to make a deal work.
So, let’s say the Blue Jackets and Lightning come to terms on a deal and Werenski gives it the okay (which isn’t a given as Dallas found out), where does Werenski, a left-handed shot blueliner fit in with the Bolts? At the top of the heap on the blueline. It’s that simple. If the Lightning make the deal, he is going to be their top-pairing defender on the left-hand side.
While it would make the Lightning absolutely stacked on the left-hand side of the defense, it would require some buy-in from Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh. Making the ice time work with Werenski isn’t too dissimilar to making it work with Moser. There are only 60 minutes in each game and the Lightning have three players capable of playing 25 minutes a night on the left-hand side. The math has to math at some point.
One of the reasons players like coming to Tampa is because of the culture. This is not a team that bickers in public, or even behind closed doors (as far as we know). Everyone buys into the philosophy and adjusts their game accordingly. Hedman, the team’s captain, was playing third-line minutes last season as he struggled with the toughest season of his career. Oliver Bjorkstrand, brought in to provide offense in the top six, played fourth-line minutes. Nick Paul has never had a set spot in the line-up during his entire tenure in Tampa.
It’s very likely that Hedman and McDonagh would take a slightly smaller role with Werenski in the fold. That’s not a bad thing considering that their careers have hit the point where the word “aging” is used as an adjective in every article about them. Keeping their minutes controlled through an 84-game season isn’t a bad thing. As the Lightning showed, it’s unlikely that an aging defense plays all 84 games as well.
Hedman and McDonagh are going to get their minutes, it’s Emil Lilleberg and Charle-Edouard D’Astous that will likely see their ice time slashed. As harsh as it sounds, that shouldn’t be a consideration in acquiring Zach Weresnki. If picking up an 80-point defenseman leads to someone claiming D’Astous on waivers, well, that’s the price of doing business in the NHL.
There just aren’t many players in the league like Werenski.
Look at all of that red in the offensive zone! And that includes some of the seasons he played under John Tortorella’s much more conservative system. In the Lightning’s offense, that relies a lot on shots from the point, there is no reason he shouldn’t continue to be successful in the offensive zone.
He’ll also give the Bolts a smooth-skating breakout machine. He scores well above average in successful puck retrievals and zone exits according to All Three Zones. And while he can pass the puck out of the zone, he loves carrying it out.
When a defenseman can skate the puck out of his own zone and through the neutral zone, it adds so much more pace to an offense than if it takes a team two or three passes to breakout. It also gives the attacking team an advantage when entering the zone as it frees up all three forwards as options.
There is no doubt that the Lightning defense, which was pretty good last season, would be better with Werenski on it. It’s odd to think that a defense that loses its entire top pairing could be better, but if they add Werenski and Hedman is even 70% of his former self, the Lightning can boast one of the best defensive corps in the Eastern Conference.
He fits into Julien BriseBois’ vision of making the team better today and in the near future, especially if the bulk of the assets used to acquire him are not currently on the roster. The fact that he has term, and would seemingly be open to extending in two years in Tampa, is in line with what Mr. BriseBois likes in his big acquisitions.
