We’re finally getting around to reviewing the 2022-23 season. Instead of assigning grades or any of that nonsense, we’ll start by looking at the player’s best goal from the season and go from there. For some it’ll be easy, others have way more to choose from.
Player:
Victor Hedman
Stat Line:
76 games played, 9 goals, 40 assists, 42 PIM, 185 shots, 6.54 iXG (5v5), 95 hits, 23:43 TOI
Playoffs – 5 games played, 0 goals, 3 assists, 2 PIM, 8 shots, 0.65 iXG (5v5), 12 hits, 23:38 TOI
Goal of the Year Video:
NHL.com
Goal of the Year Description
In a bit of a down year for him, how about we celebrate the first shorthanded goal in Victor Hedman’s career? Kind of hard to believe that in over 974 games played and with more than 2,000 minutes of shorthanded ice-time, Hedman has only scored once on the penalty kill. Congrats on finally getting one.
Hedman was on the bench when this play began with Charlie McAvoy turning the puck over in the Lightning zone after getting swarmed by three players. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare took possession of the puck, Alex Killorn sprinted to the far boards, and Ian Cole skated off so that Hedman can join the play.
Chances are that Bellemare might have chipped the puck down the ice if he had controlled it cleanly along the boards. Instead after a little hesitation to get it under control, he looked up and saw that Killorn was open and able enter the Boston zone cleanly. The pass was on the tape and Killorn skated in backing down Dmitry Orlov to create a little space at the top of the zone.
This is where almost a decade of playing together comes into play. Hedman could have jumped on the ice and retreated into a defensive position as Killorn hooked back and safely ragged the puck out of the zone. Instead, they both read the play and saw that there was an opportunity. Hedman skated to the open ice as Killorn took one look and slung the pass over to the spot. Bellemare made a nice one-touch pass to put it into Hedman’s path and one stride later Hedman blasted it over Linus Ullmark’s shoulder.
How did the 2022-23 season go for them?
“Not the best, kind of up and down.”
That’s how Hedman himself described it in his exit interview. That just about sums it up for his season.
Victor Hedman finished tied for 22nd in points among defensemen in the NHL last season with 49. For a vast majority of players in the league that is an okay-to-good season. For Hedman and Lightning fans it seemed to be a bit of a down year for the future hall of famer. The 0.64 points per game mark was his lowest since 2015-16 and his 40 assists was the lowest total for a full season since that same season.
Part of the lowered production came from decreased power play time as the Lightning moved Mikhail Sergachev to the number one unit for most of the season. While his numbers at 5v5 weren’t overwhelming, the 6 goals and 20 assists are inline with Hedman’s career average of 8 goals and 21 assists at even strength.
The fact that he was able to finish with nine goals was actually somewhat impressive considering he had just one over the first 38 games of the season. On October 29th, Hedman scored 32 seconds into a game against the San Jose Sharks. He wouldn’t find the back of the net again until January 16th against Seattle when he slid home an easy empty netter (mainly because the Kraken on the ice did everything they could to make sure Hedman couldn’t pass it to Steven Stamkos who was sitting on 499 career goals).
It wasn’t for a lack of effort that he went goalless over that 29-game stretch. He launched 131 shot attempts, which was fourth most on the team with 56 of them reaching the goaltender. Hedman posted an individual expected goals of 3.48, tops among Lightning blueliners. The puck just didn’t go in for him. The Big Swede did still put up 19 assists over that stretch, trailing only Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos over that time period.
He finished off the final 38 games with a lower iXG (5.39) but scored 8 times as the puck gods finally cut him a little bit of slack. He did kind of shoot his way out of the slump as he boosted his shots per 60 to 7.22 over those 38 games compared to the 4.81 s/60 during his goalless slump. As Uncle Phil Esposito would say, “SHOOT THE DANG PUCK!”
There might have been a bit of an adjustment period to begin the season for Hedman. After two seasons of having Jan Rutta as his defensive partner, Hedman split his 5v5 playing time between Nick Perbix (358:12), Zach Bogosian (325:55), and Erik Cernak (241:28) as the coaching staff looked to find the right combination for the top pairing. All three of those combinations were a bit underwhelming as the finished the season below water on shot attempts, unblocked shots, and expected goals.
So Victor Hedman is washed, right?
There is a bit too much blue on that chart to say that the end is nigh. It is interesting to see teams were targeting him on entries and having a little success. He was still one of the better defensive players at getting the puck out of danger and into the neutral zone. Hedman also was the best blueliner for the Lightning at getting the puck into the offensive zone. He still has that ability to carry pucks in on his own and not reliant on just dumping the puck to the endboards.
Chances are this is just a blip and we’ll see a bounce back for Hedman and his cohorts. There should be a little more stability on the defensive front which should lead to a higher comfort level. In fact, that should apply as the players now have a full grasp of some of the defensive schemes that assistant coach Jeff Blashill implemented.
There is going to be a time when Mikhail Sergachev eclipses Hedman as the number one defenseman on the Tampa Bay Lightning. The gap narrowed last season, but, for now, the Big Swede is still number one.
2023-24 Contract Status
Under contract with a $7,875,000 cap hit ($8,000,000 salary). His current contract will expire after the 2024-25 season.
Do we expect them to score more or less next season?
I’m going to go with more. In 8 of the 9 seasons prior to last year Hedman has hit double digit goal totals with the shortened 2020-21 season as the one outlier (he scored 9 in 54 games). Even if he continues to see Sergachev eat into his power play time a healthy Hedman should be good for at least 10 goals.
It’s kind of wild to think that his big contract, signed back in the summer of 2016 is almost over with. The question the Lightning brass will have to grapple with is figuring out what kind of deal his next contract will look like. Yes, he’ll be a 34-year-old defenseman with well over 1,000 regular season games under his belt (he enters next season at 974) but his playing style is so smooth he could very well play top-four minutes well into his 40’s.
That is a discussion for the future, though. As for next year, it’ll likely be a lot like this past season. He’ll play 20+ minutes a night, quarterback the second power play unit, and kill penalties. Will he still be considered the number one pairing on the left side? That may be up for debate and I can imagine Coach Cooper scoffing at the notion and calling them both elite players so it’s a moot point to him.
