Who doesn’t love a good sequel? Godfather II, Empire Strikes Back, Death Wish 2. All solid flicks that enhanced the original, right? Well, welcome to WCF Part II: The Duel in Dallas. The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are running back last year’s Western Conference Finals that went six games with the Oilers coming out on top.
Should we expect anything different this year? Not really. It should be a close, hard-fought, back-and-forth series. Both teams have shown flashes of being a true Stanley Cup contender through the first two rounds as Dallas knocked off Colorado and Winnipeg while Edmonton took out Los Angeles and Vegas. Neither team had an easy path to get here, even if the Golden Knights went down in just five games (disappointing, that).
Both teams are chasing legacies. Dallas is now in their third consecutive Western Conference Finals and fourth in the last six years. They are, for lack of a better comparison, a pre-2020 Tampa Bay Lightning. They keep getting close, but can’t quite put it all together. Can they finally put their past demons behind them and find a way back to the Stanley Cup Final, and win it all with a fairly young core of players?
At the other end of the ice is Connor McDavid and his band of merry Oilers. The greatest player of his generation has yet to reach the ultimate prize – the Stanley Cup. He came so close last season as the Oilers battled back to take the Florida Panthers to a Game 7 that ended in literal tears.
If you don’t feel for McDavid in that moment, regardless of what you think about him overall, you’ve got no soul. It’s that simple. By the way, if you didn’t watch the Amazon Face Off series that covered last season’s playoffs, do it. It brought back shades of the old Road to the Winter Classic embedded series that HBO used to produce.
The Oilers are one step away from getting back to the promised land and redeeming themselves. Unfortunately, the eternal question remains for them – can they get enough out of their goaltenders to actually win the ultimate prize? Their defense, despite not having Mattias Ekholm, has been solid as they’re allowing just 2.91 GA/60. So far, Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have held the fort in goal, doing exactly what they need to do – make the expected saves. Pickard, who has missed the last three games, but could be back in this series has allowed 19 goals against an expected 17.17, while Skinner has allowed 15 against a 13.7 xGA. Not great, but good enough for a team that is averaging 3.68 GF/60.
Dallas has the opposite problem. Goaltending is not an issue. Jake Oettinger is rolling with an 10.15 GSAx and a .918 SV% in 13 games. Shameless affiliate post time. Look how cute this shirt is. It’s an otter making a save. (If you use the link below to purchase it from our friends at Breaking T, we get a small commission)
Okay, back to the preview. While Oettinger has been up to his usual tricks in net, the Dallas offense have been, well, good but not great. They’re actually upside down in goals for at 47.22% have scored two or fewer goals in six of their thirteen games so far this postseason, including getting shut out three times. To their credit (well, to Oettinger’s credit) they have won two of the other three games.
The Stars pulled off the big trade at the deadline as they reeled in Mikko Rantanen from the Hurricanes, and it paid off as the forward is leading them in points with 19 (9 goals, 10 assists). Another mid-season acquisition, Mikael Granlund has provided some depth scoring with 7 points (4 goals, 3 assists), but it feels like the big guns haven’t been at their most productive just yet. Veterans Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin have three goals between them while Wyatt Johnston, who had 33 goals in the regular season has 4 in 13 games.
The good news is that they managed to make it through the first two rounds with two of their most important players, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, missing time. Robertson returned at the beginning of the series against Winnipeg and put up one assist in six games while Heiskanen came back in Game 3 and has two assists in three games. A healthy Heiskanan and Thomas Harley give the Stars a potent one-two combination on the blueline and could be a big difference for the Stars this year.
Any guesses as to who is leading the Oilers offense? Yup, it’s McDavid with 17 points (3 goals, 14 assists) in 11 games. Unlike in previous seasons it’s not just McDavid and Leon Draisaitl filling the net. Corey Perry has 5 goals in 11 games, while Evander Kane and Connor Brown have 4 each. There is a little more depth in the offense this year which should bode well for them.
Both teams have solid power plays (Dallas is at 30.8% and Edmonton is at 25%) while the Stars have the edge in the penalty killing department at 86.1%. Overall, the Oilers are at a dismal 66.7%, but against the Golden Knights they killed off 10 of 13 short-handed chances (76.9%) and Vegas’ last six opportunities. Dallas has been one of the more penalized teams in the playoffs at 3.23 times short-handed per game, and they can’t afford to give Edmonton too many chances with the extra skater.
This should be an exciting series with the potential for 2-1 multiple-overtime games or 6-5 shootouts. In the end it will come down to the goaltender that makes the key saves, and so we’re going to lean toward Dallas and say they take it in seven games.
The Schedule:
Game 1: Oilers at Stars, Wednesday, May 21, 8:00 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+
Game 2: Oilers at Stars, Friday, May 23, 8:00 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+
Game 3: Stars at Oilers, Sunday, May 25, 3:00 p.m. ET; ABC, ESPN+
Game 4: Stars at Oilers, Tuesday, May 27, 8:00 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+
Game 5: Oilers at Stars, Thursday, May 29, 8:00 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+ *
Game 6: Stars at Oilers, Saturday, May 31, 8:00 p.m. ET; ABC, ESPN+ *
Game 7: Oilers at Stars, Monday, June 2, 8:00 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+ *
