There have been a lot of factors contributing to the success of the Tampa Bay Lightning this season. Andrei Vasilevskiy is putting up a Vezina-like performance. Nikita Kucherov is collecting multi-point games like Pokemon. One of the differences between this year and previous ones is the amount of unexpected players that have stepped up when injuries have forced them into a bigger role. Darren Raddysh elevating his game to new levels, Charle-Edouard D’Astous becoming a one-man breakout machine, and Dominic James bringing speed and tenacity to the middle six are big reasons why the Lightning are atop the standings right now.
Along with the success on the ice, the elevated play from unexpected sources has given general manager Julien BriseBois some roster flexibility, a vital resource at this time of year. Yes, the Lightning might be a little cap-strapped. Outside of face-offs there aren’t too many areas that need improving. Little details like that aren’t going to stop him from looking for a deal over the next week. The reality is, though, if he wants to make a big splash to help this team today, and down the stretch, some salary has to go the other way.
Looking up and down the line-up, there aren’t many players where trading them away won’t also make the team a little weaker. A lot of eyeballs immediately go to Oliver Bjorkstrand, but he is one of the few right-hand shots on the roster, and his play was improving prior to the Olympic break. If there aren’t many weak spots on the roster, there might be a redundant one due to the play of Dominic James.
When Anthony Cirelli returns, hopefully this Saturday, James will likely head down to a line with Bjorkstrand and Scott Sabourin. Some may refer to that as the Lightning’s fourth line just based on ice time. It’s a spot James, who has 5 goals and 8 assists in 41 games this season, has played before this season and it gives them a little speed and forechecking while the big guns rest on the bench.
Things get interesting when the forward group is completely healthy, something that hasn’t happened much this season. When Cirelli and Nick Paul are both in the line-up, it pushes someone out of position. Again, it’s not unusual with the Lightning to have a center playing wing. For goodness sake, the best player in their history, Steven Stamkos, was listed as a center, but mostly played out on the wing for a big portion of his time in Tampa Bay. However, if Mr. BriseBois is looking to add another forward, who then becomes the odd skater out?
He could solve that by trading Nick Paul. Yes, Paul hasn’t had the best season during his time with the Lightning. Injuries have limited him to just 34 games. After back-to-back 40-point seasons, he’s sitting at 6 goals and 6 assists. Not bad, especially considering the amount of time he’s played in the bottom-six, but also not irreplaceable.
One reason Paul would be an interesting trade piece for the Lightning is his value. At a $3.15 million cap hit, the 30-year-old doesn’t have to be a 60-point guy to justify his price tag, especially with the cap scheduled to go up significantly over the next two seasons. On the right team, Nick Paul is can be a tremendous asset at a convenient price tag. With three years left on the deal, he will also give the acquiring team cost certainty, something that GMs love when it comes to building rosters.
He’s also still a good player. Despite the offense not being their, Paul is still putting up positive possession numbers and he wins face-offs. His 54.4% success rate is by far the best on the team when it comes to players that take regular draws. He’s not the most physical player, but he uses his size well to retrieve pucks and shield opponents away.
While he’s not a bad skater, he doesn’t have the speed that Dominic James has. Outside of a handful of players, that’s something that the Lightning don’t have a lot of and the rookie has used it to his advantage. He’s really used his speed well through the neutral zone and it’s allowed him to be one of the top forwards on the team when it comes to zone entries and generating shots off of the rush.
When he signed as a free agent this summer after not working out a deal with the Chicago Blackhawks, it wasn’t expected that James would have as big of a role as he has with the Lightning. Fresh out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the expectation was that he would spend the season in Syracuse, acclimating to the professional lifestyle. That lasted all of four games where he put up two goals and three assists. He’s been with the Lightning ever since.
The 23-year-old has also shown some of that Swiss knife versatility that is also a hallmark of Paul’s importance to the Lightning. James has played up and down the line-up at 5v5 and held his own. He hasn’t been asked to play much on either special teams unit, but he does have the skillset to be a decent penalty killer.
The RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) chart shows that both players have been slightly below in regards to their impact on offense, but, at least for this season so far, James has had a better defensive year.
At some point, the Lightning are going to have to start giving younger players more playing time as they transition out of their Golden Era. The best way to do it is to find younger versions of players that have had success in their system. Nick Paul has been good for the Lightning. Chances are, if he stays with them, he will continue to provide value, but there are indications that Dominic James can enjoy that same success. Not only is he seven years younger, his cap hit for this year and next is just $910,000, giving Mr. BriseBois some flexibility to pursue other avenues to keep the team in contention.
If the right deal isn’t available before the deadline, Paul could be moved over the summer. A borderline contender looking to add experience and productivity to their middle six could do worse than swapping some higher-end draft picks or a prospect for Paul’s services. Mr. BriseBois has shown a willingness to trade valuable pieces for cap space in the past (see Colton, Ross and Sergachev, Mikhail) in order to make other deals work. With a big extension required to keep Darren Raddysh in the organization this summer, and a truly unknown amount of money needed to extend Nikita Kucherov after that, the Lightning are going to need every available dollar.
It’s not imperative that the Lightning need to trade Nick Paul over the next seven days. Nor do they need to trade him just for the sake of trading someone. He has value on this team and to cast him away for nothing makes the team weaker. However, as part of a bigger deal, he makes the most sense on the roster.
