We’ve made it through the draft and now just one step until everyone can retreat to their summer cabins on the lake – free agency. Tomorrow at 12:00 PM EST, and not a second before, teams will negotiate complex, multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts with the cream of the unrestricted free agent crop. As is the case, the Tampa Bay Lightning will be engaged on the fringes of the dealmaking as they will look to secure a few pieces to complete the roster.
The Top Free Agents League-wide
It’s not likely the Lightning will be in play for any of the big names tomorrow due to their cap restraints.
As of right now the top free agent that will be available tomorrow is 31-year-old defenseman Dmitri Orlov. He just completed a 6-year, $30.6 million deal and will likely be in for one more big payday as the former Bruin and Capital will give whichever team that signs him top-pairing minutes and productivity.
Matt Dumba is probably the only other defenseman that will sign a long-term deal this weekend as things get fairly dim on the blueline. Complementary assets like Radko Gudas, Shayne Ghostisbehere, and John Klingberg are likely to take advantage of the relatively weak market to sign for more money than is reasonable, but aren’t likely to see the six or seven year deals that Orlov and Dumba should secure.
Things are a slightly rosier on the forward front as teams looking to strengthen their offense can look to the likes of Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi, Vladimir Tarasenko, Micheal Bunting, Max Domi, and J.T. Compher. Those are nice players, but are any of them a player where you would be super happy to see your favorite team sign to a 7-year, $55-$60 million contract? Not really, right?
It wouldn’t be surprising to see a lot of shorter term deals as teams are weary to hand out long-term deals to middle-six roster spots while the players could be willing to bet on themselves with one or two-year deals with the hope of scoring even larger contracts when the salary cap bumps up in a couple of years.
The Buyouts
As teams cleared cap over the last couple of weeks there have been some intriguing names added to the unrestricted free agent pool. Blake Wheeler, Matt Duchense, Mike Reilly, and Kailer Yamamoto were added to a list that already included Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Josh Bailey.
If those players are willing to sign a below-market deal to chase a Cup the Lightning might be in play for their services.
What do the Lightning need?
Right now, based on the players under contract and likely RFAs that will be signed, we’re looking at the following lines:
Forwards
Steven Stamkos – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – ??????
Tanner Jeannot – Nick Paul – Pat Maroon
Gabriel Fortier – ????? – Michael Eyssimont
Defense
Victor Hedman – Nick Perbix
Mikhail Sergachev – Erik Cernak
Haydn Fleury – Darren Raddysh
Zach Bogosian
Goaltenders
Andrei Vasilevskiy
????
If we work under the assumption that Alex Killorn is on his way out (and possibly to Detroit) then the most glaring need will be in the top-six. For the first time in a while, the Bolts don’t have a player set to slide into the role. This could be Alex Barre-Boulet’s big chance to win a permanent spot or the second time could be the charm for Cole Koepke. However, that’s a gamble that I’m willing to bet Mr. BriseBois isn’t ready to make.
The fourth-line center isn’t as big of a concern as that is one of those roles that could be filled fairly cheaply with a veteran like Nick Bjugstad, Luke Glendenning, or Eric Staal. This is right in Mr. BriseBois’ wheelhouse and shouldn’t be an issue.
He will likely use a similar method to improve things on defense as he scours the free agent market for a veteran blueliner that can find a spot on the left side. Could he open the limited budget to bring in someone like Carson Soucey on a one-year deal that mirrors what Ian Cole signed last year?
Finally, a veteran back-up for Vasilevskiy should also come at a reasonable rate. Hugo Alnefelt is going to spend the season in Syracuse proving that he can be the number one goaltender there. The list of potential candidates is long and distinguished, and personally I think a reunion with Dustin Tokarkski would be nice.
While it seems like the $7.8 million in cap space the Bolts have when you factor in the LTIR relief from Brent Seabrook’s contract, it will go fast, especially once a deal is announced for Tanner Jeannot. There were some rumors over the weekend that Mr. BriseBois was shopping Zach Bogosian to open up a little more space and possibly give Bogosian a chance to go to a team where he could get a little more playing time.
Julien BriseBois’ Track Record
When we look at the Lightning general manager’s track history some trends emerge. He won’t spend a lot of money and he won’t hand out a long-term contract. Since running the show, the largest true unrestricted free agent contract he has handed out has been, drum roll please, $3 million. That went to Ian Cole last year on a one-year deal. Prior to that the player to sign for the most money was Curtis McElhinny who signed a two-deal for $2.6 million.
As for term, Mr. BriseBois has handed out just one three-year contract and that went to Zach Bogosian back in the summer of 2021. Even two-year deals are somewhat rare for players that haven’t played for the Lightning prior to him signing them. Hayden Fleury, Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Matt Tompkins (signed earlier this year) are the only ones to have committed more than a single season to the cause.
A lot of that is due to the flat salary cap and the Lightning’s constant position at the top end of it. Mr. BriseBois hasn’t had the luxury of doling out long-term, big-money deals because the room just isn’t there. He has reserved those types of contracts for players he is familiar with, usually restricted free agents that he had previously picked up at the trade deadline.
Along with the lack of cap space, there is also the lack of a need for the type of player that tends to sign the big free agent deals. Over their recent decade of success the Bolts haven’t needed to find a top-six forward or top-pairing defenseman as they were able to build those lines from within thanks to their draft history. Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, and Anthony Cirelli were all drafted by the Lightning. Prior to last season, another draft pick in Ondrej Palat completed those lines. After he left, they were able to put Brandon Hagel in his spot, a RFA that they had picked up at the deadline on a controlled contract.
That seems to be a fundamental philosophy as to how to build the team. First, identify the core pieces and make sure they are locked up to long-term, often team-friendyish contracts. Next, round up the depth roles with internal players on low-cost, entry-level contracts. If, during the season a need arises, find a young player on a controlled contract and give up the farm to acquire him. Only after that does Mr. BriseBois tip his toes into the unrestricted free agent market to plug the remaining holes with cheap, short contracts.
Those short, cheap contracts are usually doled out to veteran players that understand that they are being added as complementary roles and won’t be seeing a ton of ice time. It works for the Lightning as well as they aren’t committed long term if the signings don’t work out.
There are some inherent flaws to this method. While the Lightning have been able to find full-time defensive players in Nick Perbix and now Darren Raddysh, they haven’t been so lucky with the forwards yet. Several have tried and none have succeeded which has forced Mr. BriseBois to be a little more active at the trade deadlines than he would prefer.
Oddly enough the flip side can be almost as damaging to the plan with this season serving as a case in point. Ross Colton did find a role on the team over the last two seasons, but basically played his way off the roster and was traded for a draft pick as his new contract would likely not have fit under the cap.
Also, should one of those “key pieces” that the team locks out flame out after year one or two then the team is locked into a contract that could be hard to move.
Final Thoughts
July 1 also marks the point where teams can announce extensions for players going into the final year of multi-year contracts. The two big names on the Lightning are Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel. Hagel is the candidate to most likely sign a long-term deal similar to Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak last year.
Stamkos is an institution in Tampa and it would be weird to see him put on another team’s uniform. The big question for him will likely be how long he wants to keep playing. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sign a three- or four-year deal similar to what Evgeni Malkin signed in Pittsburgh last summer. A cap hit around $6 million should be doable.
There will be some new players joining the Lightning this weekend, and they won’t be the sexiest names on the market. However, they should be solid players that will help the Lightning compete for the club next season.
