Many around the league think that the biggest need for the Tampa Bay Lightning this season is defense, hence the reason they were often mentioned right alongside Noah Hanifin, the biggest name on trade market, right up until the Calgary Flame was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday night. So, of course general manager Julien BriseBois’ first move for the Bolts was to bolster their offensive ranks.
On Thursday, he sent Jack Thompson and a 2024 third-round pick to San Jose for forward Anthony Duclair and a 2025 seventh-round pick. Defense through superior offense might be the Lightning’s motto down the stretch. Duclair brings a history of goal scoring to the team and should enhance their middle-six scoring.
The 28-year-old forward is in the final season of a 3-year $9 million contract following a lost season in 2022-23 when he was limited to just 20 games after suffering an Achilles tendon injury that required surgery. He was traded to the Sharks on July 1 last summer and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent this July.
Despite the injury, Duclair still managed 2 goals and 7 assists in those 20 regular season games before adding another 11 points (4 goals, 7 assists) in 20 postseason games as the Panthers made their run to the Stanley Cup Final. While the playoffs were undoubtedly exciting for him, the lack of games played was a bit of an unfortunate end to a successful stint in Florida. In the two seasons he spent with the Panthers before the injury, he put up 41 goals and 49 assists in 117 regular season games. He also had 1 goal and 2 assists in 14 playoff games. Oh, and one memorable moment against the Lightning in the 2021 playoffs:
Much like Mikey Eyssimont fighting Brayden Point last year, we’ll assume that slash is water under the bridge. After all, Kucherov was fine and raised the Stanley Cup that season.
For a player on the right-side of 30, Duclair is surprisingly well traveled. After being drafted in the third round of the 2013 NHL draft by the New York Rangers, the Quebec native has player for the Rangers, Coyotes, Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Senators, and Panthers.
It was in Columbus where he was subjected to a rather blunt assessment by his coach, John Tortorella:
Following a trade from Columbus to Ottawa, Duclair started to figure things out and score goals. In his year-and-a-half with the Senators, The Duke scored 31 goals in 87 games before heading south to Sunrise.
This season he has posted 16 goals and 11 assists in 56 games. Five of those goals along with five of the assists have come on the power play. The good news is that he seems to be heating up. Over his last four games he has five goals and three assists, with six of those points coming at even strength.
So what does Duclair bring to the Lightning. First and foremost, speed. NHL Edge stats has his top skating speed at 23.32 MPH, which is in the 95th percentile in the league this season. He recorded 123 speed bursts over 20 mph, which is in the 88th percentile.
He’s also not afraid to play in front of the net. At 5’11” and 197 lbs, he’s not the biggest player in the league, but he is tough to knock off of the puck. The Bolts can use someone who doesn’t mind standing in front of the goaltender who has the ability to deflect pucks and whack away at rebounds, especially on the second power play.
He is also a bit of a playmaker. As we see below, he used his speed to get to a loose puck and then made a nice spinning play to spot Fabian Zetterlund for the one-timer goal.
Where Duclair slots into the line-up, and who sits in his place, will be big questions for Coach Cooper to answer. For now, it’s likely that the Lightning will go back to a 12/6 line-up until Tanner Jeannot is ready to return to action. After/if Jeannot is ready to go, then things will get interesting. Based on Coach Cooper’s history, it’ll likely be the rookie who gets rotated out so that means Mitchell Chaffee might see some time in the press box.
However, Chaffee has played well in his short time with the Bolts so there could be a rotation among Chaffee, Conor Sheary, and Tyler Motte missing games. One thing the Lightning don’t really have to worry about is the addition of Duclair ruining any type of line chemistry. Outside of the top line, it’s been a struggle to find consistency among the pairings this season.
Looking at his player card from All Three Zones, there are some things that Duclair does well that the Lightning can use.
Namely, controlled entries and shooting off of high-danger passes. The Lightning need more forwards that can bring the puck into the zone to set up their high-low cycle offense. They’ve struggled to recover dump-ins or get a consistent forecheck going outside of the top line. Duclair isn’t likely to help the forecheck, but he can use his speed to get the puck into the zone.
It has been a bit of an all-gas, no break season for Duclair in San Jose this season, but he hasn’t completely abandoned defense. He’s basically at replacement level defensively while playing on a pretty bad team. His usage will change a bit with the Bolts, but that could lead to some better match-ups when he’s on the ice.
Checking some of his numbers on Natural Stat Trick, something that sticks out is that his giveaways are way down. NST has him at 0.93/60 this season, his lowest number since 2015-16. For a team like the Lightning that has struggled to maintain possession, that’s a good trait to have. At 5v5 he’s not shooting the puck quite as much as he has in the past, his 10.76 iCF/60 would be one of the lowest numbers of his career. He’s offset that with a 16.18% shooting percentage, the second highest number of his career. While high, it’s not an unsustainable high and he’s been over 15% three times over the years.
With a better cast of players around him, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his underlying numbers improve. He won’t be a Selke contender over the next 18 games, but the Lightning seem to be going with a “playing more offense means playing less defense” philosophy with this move.
Is it a move that makes the Lightning an immediate Stanley Cup favorite? No, but it is a move that makes them better.
