Hockey Christmas is a month away, folks. The NHL Trade Deadline is on Friday March 8th this year and with a number of teams huddled around the playoff bubble, we could see some teams going all in to make that final push for the league’s second season. On the other side of the coin a couple of teams have already declared their intentions to be sellers as Calgary unloaded Elias Lindholm and Montreal dealt Sean Monahan. Expect more deals in the coming weeks as contending teams look to shore up their weak areas and the rebuilders stock up on lottery tickets. So where do the Tampa Bay Lightning fit into the trade market?
Please note that the bulk of this article was written prior to Wednesday night’s game, thus prior to Mikhail Sergachev’s injury. As we don’t know the full extent of what happened to the veteran blueliner, we’ll proceed with this post as if he will return this season. If that status changes, so will the Lightning’s probable perspective on how to handle the deadline.
A couple of weeks ago, the Lightning might have fallen into the cautious seller’s category, something they haven’t been in quite some time. The last time they missed the playoffs was in the 2016-17 season, and that was really the last time we saw them subtract from the roster. Even then general manager Steve Yzerman took a somewhat cautious approach as he made a few moves to help out the Syracuse Crunch as he brought in Stefan Fournier and Adam Wilcox. He moved veteran Brian Boyle for a conditional second-round pick and Byron Freoese while flipping Valtteri Filppula and a couple of picks for a fourth-round pick in a three-team deal.
He did make one big move as he traded pending free agent Ben Bishop and a fifth-round pick to the Los Angeles Kings for Erik Cernak, Peter Budaj, and a conditional seventh-round pick. While trading a Vezina-finalist goaltender at the deadline could be considered a sell-off, he did have Andrei Vasilevskiy waiting in the wings to take over.
While the Lightning were indeed sellers, Mr. Yzerman didn’t have a fire sale, nor did he move any of the young players that were to form the nucleus of the future two-time Stanley Cup champions or veterans such as Braydon Coburn or Anton Stralman. It was a rather restrained approach that cleared out some salary cap, recouped a couple of draft picks and landed a key piece for the defense in Erik Cernak.
Heading into this December, it seemed like Mr. Yzerman’s successor, Julien BriseBois would be in for a similar type of trade deadline. The Lightning were scuffling along and looking like they might be on the outside of the playoffs for the first time since that 2016-17 season. With some expiring deals and a rather bare assortment of high-end prospects and impactful draft picks, he could go a similar route as Mr. Yzerman did and tweak things a bit without selling off everyone.
Instead, the Lightning found their stride and have hurtled themselves up the standings in the Eastern Conference and have turned from a possible seller to a potential buyer. The problem, as always with the Lightning, is two-fold – no cap room and a lack of overwhelming assets for other teams.
In the past both Mr. Yzerman and Mr. BriseBois have identified the players they feel will make an impact and acquired them even if it cost an inflated price in the eyes of fans and other hockey executives. Not only does it lead to grumbling among the fan base, each deal they make provides the organization with less ammunition at the next deadline. At some point the deficit is too much to overcome and they find themselves unable to match other teams offers for the players they want.
Rarely do we find out about the deals that didn’t go through so we can only judge general managers on the deals that do go through. We don’t know if Mr. BriseBois shot his shot for Max Domi or Gus Nyquist or Jake McCabe or Ivan Barbashev because those players all went to other teams. Based on the deal that did go through (cough, Tanner Jeannot, cough) we know whatever deal he might have offered would have been substantial. Perhaps the Lightning have become the NHL’s pace car, general manager’s use their offers to set the market and have their suitors bid up from there. Or, jealous of the sustained success, rivals set their demands for the Lightning at a higher bar than some other teams.
That’s a lot of speculation, but we can all agree that Mr. BriseBois doesn’t have it easy when it comes to the trade deadline. Some of that is his own doing for sure, but outside factors have some play at what he can realistically acquire as well. So, instead of speculating what players he is going to go after, we’re going to look at what he can offer other teams.
Draft Picks
Early indications are that an impact forward will require at least one first-round pick. The Lightning have their next two picks tied up in previous trades and can’t offer one until the 2026 draft at the earliest. Here is what they have available for trade over the next three years according to Cap Friendly:
2024 –
One third-round pick, one fifth-round pick, one sixth-round pick, three seventh-round picks
2025
One second-round pick, one third-round pick, one fourth-round pick, one fifth-round pick, one sixth-round pick, two-seventh round picks
2026
One pick in each of the seven rounds
The 2025 second-round pick is likely their most valuable asset in regards to immediate help for the team, but that alone is unlikely to force teams to part with players. That pick would almost definitely need to be bundled into a package of other picks or prospects to bring in a player that offers the Lightning an improvement over their current rostered players.
Rostered Players
Barring any long-term injuries [can an article be a jinx if it hasn’t been published?] the Lightning are in a spot where they would need to move a current player off of the payroll in order to absorb another player’s cap hit. We know Steven Stamkos isn’t going anywhere, however, are their other players that might be freed up to help with the cap numbers?
Alex Barré-Boulet – the 26-year-old has been with the team all season long and appeared in a career-high 32 games with 6 goals and 3 assists. He’s also been scratched for 18 games and seen Austin Watson and Mitchell Chaffee get ice time ahead of him. While there hasn’t been any noise about him demanding a change of scenery, he could likely benefit from more ice time with a non-contender as he heads into unrestricted free agency. It would be a minimum cap savings for the Bolts, but might be enough to bring in a player for defensive depth.
Calvin de Haan – The veteran defenseman has played fairly well in his role as a third-pairing defenseman, but an argument could be made that there will be better options out there on the market for similar cap hits. The injury to Sergachev, likely makes him a little more indispensable to the Bolts, though.
Tyler Motte – In each of the last two seasons Motte has been traded to the New York Rangers at the deadline. Sadly, that streak probably ends this year. Motte has found a role as the Lightning’s third-line center and settled in nicely. He’s the exact type of player they are likely targeting at the deadline so why trade him away?
Conor Sheary – While free agent signings Luke Glendening and Motte have found their roles with the Bolts, Sheary has struggled to make a consistent impact. With a $2 million cap hit, he could free up some wiggle room for Mr. Brisebois, but at 31-years-old and with more years left on his contract after this season, he’s likely only dealt with a sweetener in the deal.
Jonas Johansson – The Lightning have a nice goalie tandem at the moment, but if the market for netminders explodes over the next few weeks, Johansson, who is likely to only start a handful of games down the stretch could be enticing for a team looking for a competent back-up or 1b starter.
Prospects
While he treats draft picks like confetti, Mr. BriseBois doesn’t really have a history of dealing Lightning non-rostered prospects. Yes, he’s traded Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddysh, but he actually brought in a similar aged player in Brandon Hagel in the deal. Outside of that trade, the only real prospects that he’s included in deals were Nolan Foote in the Blake Coleman deal and Max Cajkovic in the Pat Maroon deal.
Part of that is because over the last decade the Lightning haven’t been swimming in the type of top-end prospects that rebuilding teams usually covet, but he also recognizes that the prospects they have fill in holes on the roster at low cap hits and are vital with the amount of money he has wrapped up in his stars.
Still, with his draft capital at an all-time low, he might have to tweak his philosophy a bit if he’s fixated on a particular player. So, who might make their NHL debut with another franchise?
Isaac Howard – the Lightning’s top prospect is showing that he can be an elite point producer in college and on the international stage. If he’s going to make it to the NHL it will be as a top-six forward.
Ethan Gauthier – the Bolts traded Ross Colton for this pick last summer and Gauthier has shown all the tools needed to be an effective two-way player in the league. Chances are he’s closer to an NHL debut than Howard, so teams looking for some immediate young help could be interested in Gauthier.
Jack Thompson – the right-shot defenseman is an AHL all-star and made a cameo in the NHL this year. He has offensive instincts and could quarterback a power play some time in the near future. Depending on the health of Erik Cernak, the Bolts could be set on the right side for the next few years and might be willing to part with him for the right return.
Gage Goncalves – Overage Gage is leading the Crunch in points and was selected for the AHL all-star team in his third professional season. While he projects as a middle-six forward, he is also likely to be a factor on power play units and could be used along with a package of picks to acquire a player that Mr. BriseBois wants.
Every year we say that the Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t in a position to add a player at the trade deadline and every year they end up figuring something out. We’re saying that again this year, but if we’re wrong, expect some combination of the players and picks listed above to no longer be on the team on March 9th.
