Lightning at Sabres Preview and GDT: It only matters if you can do it on the road

Game #46 – Tampa Bay Lightning (23-17-5) at Buffalo Sabres (20-21-4)
Time: 12:30 PM
Location: KeyBank Center
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, MSG-B, ESPN+, HULU

Opponent’s Site: Die by the Blade

Preview

After an extremely successful home stand (4-for-4!) the Lightning throw on their overcoats for a three-game road trip that will take them to Buffalo, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Up first is a weekend back-to-back that starts with the Sabres this afternoon. It’s a similar trip to the one the Lightning kicked off their season with where they went winless through Ottawa, Detroit, and Buffalo. While the Bolts seem to have corrected their season-opening issues at home, the road continues to be a test they’re struggling to pass.

The offense returned with a vengeance during the four-game winning streak as they racked up 19 goals, highlighted by a 6-for-6 performance by their power play over the last two games. While the bulk of the goals (12) came against two struggling teams in the Wild and the Ducks, success against bad teams can build confidence, and when the Lightning play with swagger, they can run with anyone.

The only problem is that they’ve failed to run with anyone on the road on a consistent basis. If they want to get serious about locking up a playoff spot, they have to start playing better on the road. So what is the problem they’re having on the road? Well, simply put they give up more goals and score less away from Amalie than they do at home.

It’s not just one stat either that has been bogging them down. Their save percentage is lower on the road. There is also a noticeable difference in their power play success. At home they are clicking at a robust 36.0% while they are a good, but not exceptional, 22.4% on the road. For a team that relies on their special teams for a healthy part of their offense, that’s not great.

At 5v5 they’re averaging 2.51 GF/60 at home and 2.38 GF/60 on the road, which isn’t a huge difference (for the record they’ve played 23 games at home and 22 games on the road). So, when they’re not adding the power play goals at the same rate, they’ve struggled to keep pace with other teams. Add to that the huge goal differential in the second period (20 goals scored vs. 32 goals allowed at all strengths) and it’s led to them chasing a lot of games on the road.

Compounding the issue is that Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t been able to bail them out of their struggles on the road either. While his home stats are inline with his career numbers (.913 SV%, 2.36 GAA, -1.42 GSAx), his road splits are not pretty (.885 SV%, 3.38 GAA, 2.35 GSAx). The good news is that, if you throw away the loss to Boston, he played pretty well in the three road games before that with a .939 SV%, 1.66 GAA, and 3.70 GSAx). Based on his career numbers we should see better numbers from Vasy down the stretch.

Buffalo will prove to be an interesting first test (and Vasy may not even be in net if Coach Cooper elects to start Jonas Johansson for the first of the back-to-backs) as they’ve had an overall disappointing season, but have been putting some wins together of late. Granted, their most recent wins have come against Chicago, San Jose, and Ottawa, but for a team that had playoff hopes at the beginning of the season, they’ll take whatever wins they can.

With back-to-back shutouts it appears Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has taken the starter’s job in the crease. He has a respectable 2.64 GAA, .909 SV%, 8.47 GSAx line which is even more impressive when you factor in Buffalo’s love of surrendering high-danger chances (their 11.85 HDCA/60 is 22nd in the league). Injuries on the offense have been an issue as well. Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch have all missed time this season.

They still have speed to burn up front, and will be a good test to see if the Lightning’s better play with the puck (i.e. not turning it over like it’s covered in grease) of late isn’t a mirage.

Tune in early for all of the fun!

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Steven Stamkos – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Nick Paul
Michael Eyssimont – Tyler Motte – Conor Sheary

Austin Watson – Luke Glendening – Waltteri Merelä

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Calvin de Haan – Nick Perbix

Emil Lilleberg – Max Crozier

Goalies
Jonas Johansson

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Buffalo Sabres Projected Lines

Forwards
Zach Benson – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

Zemgus Girgensons – Casey Mittelstadt – Jack Quinn

Eric Robinson – Peyton Krebs – JJ Peterka

Victor Olofsson – Jordan Greenway – Kyle Okposo

Defenders

Rasmus Dahlin – Henri Jokiharju

Owen Power – Erik Johnson

Ryan Johnson – Connor Clifton

Goalies

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Devon Levi

Question of the Night