Even with a slight bump in salary cap space and no pending restricted free agents that will need huge raises, it’s going to be another tough offseason for Tampa Bay Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois. The biggest piece of the 2024 puzzle is also the one that he has to figure out first – Steven Stamkos. The Lightning’s on-ice captain and franchise icon is set to hit unrestricted free agency following another 40-goal season. While he might be an elder statesman in a league dominated by 20-somethings, the 34-year-old would be a prized target for many teams if he can’t come to an agreement with Mr. BriseBois in the next eight weeks or so.
The general manager had nothing but praise for Stamkos in his post-season debrief on Wednesday as he spoke about the center’s leadership qualities in the locker room and on the ice. Mr. BriseBois confirmed that he had spoken to Stamkos briefly after the team arrived back in Tampa following their playoff elimination at the hands of the dastardly Florida Panthers, and that he is speaking with Stamkos’ agent, Don Meehan of The Newport Agency.
Why is Stamkos the biggest piece of the puzzle? Simply because his re-signing dictates the way in which the Lightning go about achieving Mr. BriseBois’ goal, which is to be better defensively. With CapFriendly projecting $12,585,000 of cap space and having only 16 players currently under contract, even an extremely friendly home-town discount for the 555-goal man would severely cut into the amount of money the GM has to play with to bring in the five other players needed to make the team better.
Right now, it’s likely that the Lightning have two plans for their offseason. One with Stamkos under contract, and one without him. The final decision would ultimately dictate which road they head down in regards to free agency. No matter how it turns out, the GM is convinced that the ultimate goal is to find a way to keep pucks out of their net next year, especially at 5v5.
Two players already on the roster should go a long way to helping a team that finished 27th in 5v5 goals allowed at 2.87 per game. Having a healthy Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for his customary 60+ starts is a good place to start. After missing the first quarter of the season, and then taking a few games to get back into game shape, Vasilevskiy showed signs of his old self during the Lightning’s strong second-half of the season. Add in a full season of Mikhail Sergachev who, for all of his faults, is a top-tier defenseman in the NHL and things are already looking better.
If Mr. BriseBois and Stamkos can’t come to an agreement, then the Lightning have a bit more money to play with in the free agency department. It’s not exactly a banner year for impact defensemen this summer, but there are some intriguing players such as Brady Skjei, Chris Tanev, and Brandon Montour that Tampa Bay could be in discussions with.
The Lightning have five defensemen under contract at the moment which, if they didn’t make any offseason moves would lead to a unit that looks something like:
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Mikhail Sergachev – Erik Cernak
[Insert Player Here] – Nick Perbix
When healthy, that’s as decent of a top four as most teams can roll out on a season-long basis. However, there is plenty of room to add an impact player on either side of the ice. Sliding Skjei onto the left side of the defense would make it one of the deepest in the league while adding Montour or Tanev on the right side could free up some players for Mr. BriseBois to make more moves.
Not re-signing Stamkos would also leave a glaring hole on the top-six. The Lightning could still roll out one of the most potent top lines in the NHL with Brandon Hagel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov. A fourth line of Tanner Jeannot, Luke Glendenning, and Mikey Eyssimont might not score a lot, but they would be a pain to play against. The second and third lines, well, there isn’t much left over at the NHL level right now.
Brandon Hagel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
[Insert Player Here] – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Sheary
[Insert Player Here] – Nick Paul – [Insert Player Here]
Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendenning – Mikey Eyssimont
Of those three open spots, the Lightning are likely to fill at least one of them with a player from Syracuse. Cole Kopeke, Gabriel Fortier, Walterri Merelä, Max Groshev, and Gage Goncalves are probably the most likely players you will see this fall, but Jack Finley, Dylan Duke, and Ethan Gauthier could throw their names in the hat with a strong training camp.
While everyone mentioned in that paragraph can play a nice complimentary, two-way game, they aren’t likely to put the puck in the net 40+ times. The Bolts don’t have that offensive solution in their prospect pool at this point. Nor were there a lot of goals left on the table by players on the roster. Yes, a healthy and engaged Conor Sheary should score more than he did this year, and there is always the hope that Tanner Jeannot figures things out, but other than that, most of the players bested or neared career goal marks.
If Stamkos elects to go elsewhere, Anthony Duclair likely becomes a top target as he has experience in the system and can probably get to 25-30 goals with increased power play time. Vladimir Tarasenko, Teuvo Teräväinen, and Jake Guentzel could also be on their radar to fill their Stamkosian-sized hole. As fans of redemption arcs, wouldn’t Jonathan Drouin returning to be a 20+ goal player be a fun story?
Now, if the Lightning and Stamkos do manage to come to an agreement, the missing offense is no longer a problem in theory. The top-six is set and the first power play unit can continue to be one of the most lethal in the game. The downside is that any type of deal that brings The Captain back likely takes the Lightning out of the running for any of the top-tier defensive free agents unless they make a corresponding move to take a player off of the roster.
Mr. BriseBois left himself open to that possibility when asked about it in the press conference. After comparing rosters to puzzles with constantly shifting parameters, he acknowledged that “nothing is off the table”. So he is open to the idea of moving a contract off of the team if he needs to.
It’s not likely that he will buy anyone out of their contract. It’s not an option that he’s deployed in the past with any regularity and it doesn’t really make sense at this point. The savings would be minimal at best. If nothing is off the table, then there are no truly untouchable players, but there can be a reasonable assumption made that Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman, and Mikhail Sergachev aren’t going anywhere.
Mr. BriseBois wants to keep this Stanley Cup window open, and as long as those players are on the roster, they have a chance. Also, it’s unlikely that he would re-sign Stamkos and then start trading those core pieces away. The relatively low-cost value that Mikey Eyssimont, Luke Glendenning, and Darren Raddysh bring to the team also likely removes them from any kind of trade talk.
Could he trade Anthony Cirelli despite the seven years left on his contract? Honestly, yes he probably could find a willing taker fairly quickly. The $6.5 million cap hit can be viewed as a little high, but Cirelli is exactly what a two-way player looks like. He showed that he can be a 20-goal player when he’s healthy, he puts up huge minutes shorthanded and is one of, if not the best, defensive forward on the team right now. If a GM’s goal is to improve his team’s defense, he doesn’t trade Anthony Cirelli.
So, what about Nick Paul, Erik Cernak, Nick Perbix, Tanner Jeannot, and Conor Sheary? Trading Perbix, Jeannot, or Sheary would be selling at their lowest point and might require the Lightning to retain some salary or throw in some sweeteners, restrictions that might not make the juice worth the squeeze for Mr. BriseBois. With the trade cost and contract extension for Jeannot, one has to wonder if the general manager is trying to force the acquisition to work and isn’t willing to give up on it just yet, much like Gary Bettman and Arizona hockey for the last two decades.
The injuries that Jeannot played through this year (he only played in 55 games during the regular season) may give him another chance with the Bolts. He did still manage to lead the team in hits and his 3.46 individual high-danger chances per 60 minutes was ninth on the team, which tied him with Mitchell Chaffee. There are elements in his game that should work in the Lightning’s desired system of play, and it’s likely that Mr. BriseBois doesn’t want to give up on him.
So that leaves Cernak as a potential trade chip, right? A 26-year-old, physical right-shot defenseman that is good at what he is good at would have an appeal to other teams, especially teams that might not be in the running for some of the free agent names listed above. The big drawback from the Slovakian defender, his health. Committing to a $5.2 million cap hit until 2031 is tough when the player has a history of injuries and a playing style that likely won’t age well.
Since the 2019-20 season, his first full season with the Bolts, Cernak has played in 306 of the team’s 372 regular season games. That’s roughly 82% of the games the team has played, and as a player who bases his game on blocking shots and laying out big hits, it’s not likely for that number to increase over the remainder of his deal.
Even if the Lightning had to retain part of his salary in a deal, it could open up enough to add some impact talent in addition to re-signing Stamkos. An additional $3 million or so for the next few years could go a long way to improving the team, while also helping to deal with the next looming franchise icon contract situation – Victor Hedman.
That’s a headache for another day, though. His focus for the next few weeks should be solely on resolving the Steven Stamkos situation. He’s put it off as long as he can and has gathered as much information as he can. Decision time is now, but having an openness to any and all solutions should make his life easier no matter how the situation plays out.
