Penguins at Lightning: Bolts Back at Home

Game #24 – Pittsburgh Penguins (10-10-1) at Tampa Bay Lightning (10-8-5)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, ESPN+,

Opponent’s Site: Pensburgh

Preview

After racking up five straight wins, the Pittsburgh Penguins head to Tampa with just two wins in their last seven games, a streak that has dropped them out of a playoff spot in the Metro Division. Much like the Lightning, the offense has sputtered a bit as they’ve scored just 13 goals during the seven-game stretch.

Tonight will be a match-up of two teams in kind of a similar spot – former championship-level squads that are top-heavy with future hall-of-famers, but struggling to garner production from the rest of the team. The Lightning have Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and Victor Hedman. The Penguins have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson. All six of those folks will be in the hall of fame some day and all are still producing.

If you figure that top-heavy talent cancels each other out, you’re left with the Tanner Jeannots, Anthony Cirellis, Lars Ellers, Jansens Harkins as the difference makers in a game like this. Personally, I think the Lightning have a slight edge in their depth, especially with the recent strong play of Mikey Eyssimont.

The stat that jumps out in the box below is the Penguins 12.1% power play, which drags their offense down to the middle of the pack. At 5v5, the Pens have been a pretty solid team, averaging 2.94 goals per game, 5th-best in the league. They’ve posted 50 goals at 5v5 against an expected goals of 52.69%, so they are cashing in the opportunities that they are generating.

Meanwhile, the Lightning are the exact opposite, relying on a successful power play to boost their ailing 5v5 offense. Tampa Bay is averaging 2.52 GF/60, which is 18th in the league. Their power play is adding almost a goal a game as they are at 3.45 GF/60 in all situations. Is that sustainable for an entire season? Probably not.

The Lightning have been generating more scoring chances recently, but now they have to start converting on those. It starts by getting pucks on net and winning the second-chance battles in front of the opposing goaltenders. While they generated a lot of shots and shot attempts in their two losses, there weren’t a lot of rebound chances thrown at the goalies.

While it seems counter-intuitive to the numbers above, the Lightning should focus on staying out of the penalty box. Staying at 5v5 tonight will allow them to roll their four lines and keep the players fresh. With a slightly deeper roster than the Penguins, they could use that to their advantage.

This should be a good match-up for the Lightning to get things back on track as the Penguins aren’t going to try and turn this game into a track meet. The Bolts just need to be responsible in their own zone and not allow the Pens to get their cycle game going. Put the pressure on their defense by hitting the neutral zone with speed and good things will happen.

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Brandon Hagel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Steven Stamkos – Anthony Cirelli – Mikey Eyssimont
Tanner Jeannot – Nick Paul – Tyler Motte
Cole Koeple – Luke Glendening – Austin Watson

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Nick Perbix
Mikhail Sergachev – Erik Cernak
Calvin de Haan – Darren Raddysh

Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Pittsburgh Penguins Projected Lines

Forwards

Jake Guentzel – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust

Reilly Smith – Evgeni Malkin – Drew O’Connor

Radim Zohorna – Lars Eller – Jansen Harkins

Matt Nieto – Noel Acciari – Jeff Carter

Defenders
Ryan Graves – Kris Letang

Marcus Pettersson – Erik Karlsson

Ryan Shea – John Ludvig

Goalies

Tristan Jarry

Alex Nedeljkovic

Question of the Night

Can the Bolts score more than one goal without the help of the power play?