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Rangers at Lightning: The Bolts take on the best

Dec 29, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) defends as New York Rangers left wing Chris Kreider (20) skates during the second period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Game #37 – New York Rangers (24-8-1) at Tampa Bay Lightning (17-14-5)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, ESPN+, Hulu, MSG2

Opponent’s Site: Blue Shirt Banter

Preview

The Lightning came out of the holiday break a bit flat, much to the disappointment of their head coach, Jon Cooper. He felt they were finally engaged in the third period, but couldn’t overcome the two-goal deficit they had built before losing to the Florida Panthers. They’ll need to get going from the get go as they host one of the best teams in the league in the New York Rangers.

How have the Rangers ascended to the top of the Eastern Conference? Excellent special teams with mediocre 5v5 play. Honestly, they are the Lightning with better goaltending and defense. The two teams have similar numbers at 5v5:

xGF/60GF/60xGA/60GA/60HDCA/60
Rangers2.632.472.702.5411.64
Lightning2.582.492.682.9111.08
Stats via Natural Stat Trick

As you can see, the Lightning have the slight edge offensively, but New York has been better at keeping the pucks out of the net even if Tampa Bay’s underlying numbers are slightly better. It’s funny how close this game can be. Here are two teams with similar numbers yet wildly different records.

The goalie tandem of Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick have been okay at 5v5 as they’ve posted 2.60 and 2.46 goals against averages respectively. At even strength they’re doing their job as Quick has a 1.9 GSAx and Shesterkin is at -1.1. Shorthanded, though, they have been dynamite as Shesterkin has posted a 6.8 GSAx and Quick is at 4.1. No wonder they are 4th in the league with an 86.0% success rate shorthanded.

Much like the Lightning, they aren’t shorthanded all that often as their 3.03 times shorthanded per game is 8th in the league. Of the 100 times they’ve been shorthanded, they’ve only allowed 14 goals (all at 4vs5). Their strength lies in their ability to keep the front of the net clean in front of their goaltenders as they have are allowing a league-low 17.81 high-danger chances against when shorthanded.

Offensively, Artemi Panarin is leading the way offensively with 46 points (19 goals, 27 assists) but Mike Zibanejad is the one with the hot hand recently. The Swedish center has an eight-game scoring streak with six multi-point games during that stretch.

Tampa Bay will have the advantage of rest as the Rangers are on the second-half of a back-to-back having played in Sunrise last night. However, it looks like they might be without the services of Mikhail Sergachev for at least one more game as assistant coach Jeff Blashill stated that the defenseman is day-to-day and probably out for the game.

Stats Match-up

Game #37Tampa Bay LightningNew York Rangers
Overall Record17-14-524-8-1
Home Record10-4-312-4-0
Road Record7-10-212-4-1
Goals For120113
Goals Against12390
xGF115.03106.26
xGA116.98105.08
Power Play29.6%31.1%
Penalty Kill80.2%86.0%
Stats via ESPN and Natural Stat Trick

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Nick Paul – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Steven Stamkos
Mikey Eyssimont – Tanner Jeannot – Austin Watson

Alex BarrĂ©-Boulet – Tyler Motte – Conor Sheary

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Nick Perbix
Haydn Fleury – Erik Cernak
Calvin de Haan – Darren Raddysh

Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Lines based on practice yesterday per Chris Krenn. Luke Glendening was a maintenance day scratch.

New York Rangers Projected Lines

Forwards
Chris Kreider – Mika Zibanejad – Blake Wheeler

Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafreniere

Will Cuylle – Nick Bonino – Jonny Brodzinski

Jimmy Vesey – Barclay Goodrow – Tyler Pitlick

Defenders
Ryan Lindgren – Adam Fox

K’Andre Miller – Jacob Trouba

Erik Gustafsson – Braden Schneider

Goalies
Igor Shesterkin

Jonathan Quick

Question of the Night

Can the Bolts stay out of the penalty box?

Shameless Product Plug of the Night

Ahh.. Remember this one? The whole “Igor’s Better!” chants from New York and then the “Vasy’s Better!” chants from the ultimately victorious Lightning crowd. Good times. Well, go ahead and remind yourself of those times by buying a t-shirt.

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Talking Points