Red Wings at Lightning Preview: We’re in the endgame now

Game #74 – Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, BSDETX, ESPN+, HULU

Opponent’s Site: Winging it in Motown

Preview

Happy April folks. The best time of the year, playoff hockey, is just a few weeks away. The Tampa Bay Lightning are playing their best hockey of the season and are inching closer to punching their ticket to the postseason. Before they can celebrate that accomplishment they have to run a bit of a gauntlet of games. After tonight’s contest they head on the road for three straight.

While the competition might not be top notch as two of the teams are out of the playoff race, the fact that they are playing three out of four nights on the road isn’t exactly how a team wants to finish the season. It’s a bit of a grind, but, to their credit, the Bolts have been grinding out a lot of points over the last few weeks.

Tonight’s game is a bit of a mini-trap game. It’s the last game at home. Their next game is against Toronto and their opponent is desperate for points. A rough ten-game stretch that saw the Red Wings go 3-5-2 has dropped them out of a playoff spot. Entering tonight’s game Detroit is two points behind the Philadelphia Flyers for that coveted final wild card (although they do have a game in hand). A win would most definitely be a boost to their standings, especially since the teams sandwiched around them (the Flyers and the Islanders) are playing each other.

Expect the Wings to come out with a lot of energy so it would behoove the Lightning to punch them in the mouth in the first period like they did to the Islanders on Saturday. Tampa Bay had a desperate team come into their house and the Bolts basically ran them off the ice in the first period. Sure, they let them back in a bit in the second period, but the fact that the Bolts played from in front for most of the night was a key part of their victory.

Coach Cooper has talked repeatedly about how the team has “bought in” over the last few weeks and upped their urgency since their long break. There were signs of the playoff-level intensity throughout the month of March that they finished with a record of 9-1-1. Despite the success, they can’t relax now. While they can’t clinch a playoff spot tonight, they can all but lock one up. A win for the Bolts would basically knock four points off of their magic number and require Detroit to run the table to even have a shot at catching them.

Over their last 11 games (i.e. the month of March) the Bolts were the top scoring team at 4.18 goals per game and the seventh-best defensive team, allowing just 2.45 goals per game. That second stat was probably the more important of the two. Scoring will likely dry up in the post-season, so the Bolts need to be able to keep the pucks out of their own net.

Their defensive numbers have been buoyed a bit by a tremendous penalty kill over the last month. Their 97% success rate shorthanded is by far the best number in the league during that time period. They’ve actually scored more goals shorthand (2) than they’ve allowed (1). That success has masked the fact that they’re 21st in goals allowed at 5v5, averaging 2.58/60 according to Natural Stat Trick. If you want to throw a silver lining on that cloud, they were 28th in 5v5 goals against heading into the month of March, allowing 2.87/60. So, that’s nice.

Keeping pucks out of the net has been kind of the problem with the Red Wings of late. Over the last month, they’ve given up 3.93 goals per game in all situations. Only the Penguins and Sharks were worse in that category. Their penalty kill has slumped (74.4%) and they’re getting crushed at 5v5 with a 45.88% expected goals share.

One thing that might motivate the Lightning a bit tonight is the fact that they’ve yet to beat the Red Wings this season. They dropped a 6-4 game early in the season and then lost 2-1 in January. Both of those games were in Detroit, so maybe some home cooking will be the difference.

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Anthony Duclair – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Steven Stamkos
Mikey Eyssimont – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee

Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendening – Tyler Motte

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Matt Dumba – Erik Cernak
Haydn Fleury – Nick Perbix

Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Pretty much the lines from Satuday’s game with Erik Cernak thrown back into the defensive rotation. We’ll keep an eye on the morning skate to see how Coach Cooper rotates the defensive pairings. It could be Fleury, Perbix, or Lilleberg that get the scratch.

Detroit Red Wings Projected Lines

Forwards
Alex DeBrincat – Dylan Larkin (?) – Patrick Kane

Michael Rasmussen – J.T. Compher – Lucas Raymond

Joe Veleno – Andrew Copp – David Perron

Robby Fabbri – Austin Czarnik – Jiri Fischer

Defenders
Ben Chiarot – Moritz Seider

Magnus Edvinsson – Jeff Petry

Olli Maatta – Shayne Gostisbehere

Goalies
Alex Lyon

James Reimer

The lines are based on their last game against the Florida Panthers. Larkin left the game after blocking a shot. He did return later, but you never know how those things are after a couple of days of rest.

The Playoff Race