Sabres at Lightning Preview: It’s time to go and win some games

Game #62 – Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 PM
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, MSG-B, ESPN+, Hulu

Opponent’s Site: Die by the Blade

Preview

The Lightning are back home after their successful, yet somehow unfulfilling, road trip. Yes, they earned more points than games played, but with a chance to make it a sweep, and tied heading into the third period tied with the Flyers, they tripped, fell, got up, tripped again, got up, slipped on a banana peel, and then lost the game 6-2.

Tonight’s game against the Sabres kicks off a five-game homestand, but it’s a weird one. They play tonight and Saturday. Then they are off until next Thursday and Saturday. Then they are off again until the following Thursday. So, it’s a five-game homestand stretched over three weeks. What is this, football?

If you look at their record, it’s easy to think that this should be a win for the Lightning as the Sabres are currently sitting in the 6th spot in the Atlantic Division, 11 points behind Tampa Bay. However, over the last few months, the Sabres have been playing decent hockey, especially on defense. Since January 1 they are allowing 2.19 goals per game, which is fourth in the league. They’re also fourth in the league in goals against at 5v5 with a 1.67 GA/60 number.

Goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been a big reason why with a .935 SV% and 1.83 SV% over 17 games during that stretch. The team in front of him is helping as they’re only allowing about 29 shots a game and 27 scoring chances against.

Offense continues to be a problem, though, and is a reason they are only 12-9-0 despite such optimal goaltending. Their 2.81 goals per game is 23rd in the league since the turn of the calendar while their 19.4% power play is 17th. Dylan Cozens is leading the way with 16 points (6 goals, 10 assists) in 20 games. They have spread things out as seven players have double-digit points over the first two months of 2024.

That doesn’t mean the Lightning can attack with disregard for defense. They have to play it smart and build from the back. As Coach Cooper mentioned prior to the Philadelphia game, they had success in their wins by playing well in their own zone, and not cheating that aspect of the game for offense. Even with a focus on keeping the puck out of their net, they were still able to generate plenty of offense.

After spending the road trip with an 11/7 line-up, Coach Cooper might return to his traditional 12/6 look, if Tanner Jeannot is ready to go. The big forward wasn’t quite ready for a return against the Flyers despite taking regular rushes in practice and at the morning skate.

No matter who is in the line-up, the Lightning will be looking to get their power play back on track. Over the last five games they’re just 1-for-11 (9.1%) with the extra skater. With as much as they rely on that part of their game to help them win, that’s a troubling number. It’s also troubling that they’re not drawing as many penalties as of late. When they’re playing aggressive and with the puck, they force other teams to take infractions, and that’s just not happening right now.

As they hit their final 20-game stretch of the season, the Lightning need to find some consistency to their game. They still control their own destiny, but have to pick up as many points as they can. It’ll be tough, but they need to pick up the win tonight to keep pace with the suddenly red-hot Detroit Red Wings (six wins in a row).

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Brandon Hagel- Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Steven Stamkos – Nick Paul – Conor Sheary
Mikey Eyssimont – Anthony Cirelli – Mitchell Chaffee

Tyler Motte – Luke Glendening

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Calvin de Haan – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix

Max Crozier

Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Based on the starting line-ups from their previous game. If they flip back to a 12/6 rotation we will update the pairings.

Buffalo Sabres Projected Lines

Forwards
Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

Jordan Greenway – Casey Mittelstadt – Dylan Cozens

Zach Benson – Peyton Krebs – JJ Peterka

Eric Robinson – Zemgus Girgensons – Kyle Okposo

Defenders

Rasmus Dahlin – Henri Jokiharju

Owen Power – Erik Johnson

Jacob Bryson – Connor Clifton

Goalies

Ukko -Pekka Luukkonen

Eric Comrie

Based on Daily Faceoff’s projected lines. Will update if things change during the morning skate.

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