Senators at Lightning Game Preview: Call it what you want, but we’re in the dog days of the season

Game #79 – Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, RDS2, TSN5, ESPN+, Hulu

Opponent’s Site: Silver Seven Sens

Preview

Welcome to the end times, folks. Not in the the dark skies, apocalyptic sense of the phrase, but in the winding down of the season. Tonight’s game marks the 79th of the season for the Tampa Bay Lightning so there are only three more left on the schedule. Based on the morning skate, it looks like an end-of-the-season game as well.

Matt Tomkins is going to get the start as Coach Cooper builds in a little rest for Andrei Vasilevskiy. It also appears that Anthony Duclair is feeling a bit under the weather and is a game-time decision. Mitchell Chaffee was also not taking regular rushes. Conor Sheary took Duclair’s spot on the top line with Austin Watson filling in for Chaffee.

On the other side of the ice, the Ottawa Senators are putting a team out there, but not one they had hoped for at the beginning of the season. Josh Norris, Travis Harmonic, and Dominik Kubalik are likely out while Tim Stutzle, who has missed their last few outings, is a game-time decision. Give the Senators credit, prior to their recent four-losses-in-five-games skid, they were playing quite well with a five-game winning streak.

Aside from a 6-0 loss to Florida, even in their losses they’ve been competitive with three of their losses by one or two goals, and their win came against a desperate Washington team that is chasing a playoff spot. Much like Columbus, Ottawa doesn’t come into this game with much to play for other than pride and a chance to disrupt a few things, but that can be a motivating factor for a young team.

Ottawa was on the fringes of the playoff race at the trade deadline, but chose not to make any huge moves in either other direction. Despite some interest in their depth players and some chatter around defenseman Jakob Chychrun they elected to stay put with their only transaction being to claim old friend Boris Katchouk off of waivers from the Chicago Blackhawks. Since the deadline they have gone 9-8 with Brady Tkachuk leading the way with 17 points (7 goals, 10 assists).

Tkachuk is the leader on a top line that is now centered by Shane Pinto, who returned from his half-season suspension in January and has put up 26 points (8 goals, 18 assists) in 37 games. If Stutzle is healthy, Pinto may drop down to the second line with Mathieu Joseph and Claude Giroux.

We all know Joseph is hyped to play his former teammates as the 27-year-old has four goals in five career games against the Lightning. While Joseph, who has three-years left on his contract, will likely be around for the Senators next year, Pinto could be a question mark. He is a restricted free agent at the end of this season, as he was last season, and contract negotiations were not going smoothly before his suspension.

There are quite a few Senators on the roster that are fighting for playing time next year, and they are using these final games in the season to make their case. That gives them something to play for while the Lightning are focused on getting things in gear for the playoffs and staying healthy. For the most part we’re likely seeing the line combinations that will at least start their first round series against the unknown opponent. Players have seemingly settled into their roles, and barring the occasional one-off like Duclair tonight, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the lines maintain some consistency over the final week of the season.

The defensive pairings are a little bit more up in the air as Nick Perbix and Matt Dumba have played on their off-sides recently while Calvin de Haan has been used sparingly. It seems Coach Cooper is trying to work everyone in, because we all know it’ll take more than six defensemen on the roster if this team wants to go deep in the playoffs.

Despite playing on the left-side for the first time in his Lightning career, Nick Perbix has teamed up fairly well with Erik Cernak. Since February 1, the duo has posted a 1.96 xGA/60 in 59 minutes of 5v5 times together. That’s the lowest number of any of the combinations that have seen more than 50 minutes of ice time together during that time frame. Their lack of offensive production together has led them to be upside down on shot attempts (42.72%) and scoring chances (48.84%) but they aren’t allowing a lot of high-danger chances (9.16/60) either. The Lightning would be willing to sacrifice offense from them if they can keep the other teams from scoring.

Much like they had to against Columbus, the Lightning are going to have to find their own motivation to win in a game that doesn’t have much on the line. It took them the better part of two periods to figure it out against the Blue Jackets, hopefully they can pull it off from the start tonight.

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Anthony Duclair – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Steven Stamkos
Mikey Eyssimont – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee

Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendening – Tyler Motte

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Nick Perbix – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Matt Dumba

Goalies
Matt Tomkins

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Ottawa Senators Projected Lines

Forwards
Brady Tkachuk – Shane Pinto – Drake Batherson

Mathieu Joseph – Ridly Greig – Claude Giroux

Boris Katchouk – Mark Kasterlic – Parker Kelly

Bokondji Imama – Jiri Smejkal – Zack MacEwen

Defenders

Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub

Thomas Chabot – Emil Brannstrom

Jakob Chychrun – Jacob Bernard-Docker

Goalies

Joonas Korpisalo

Anton Forsberg

The Playoff Race