Is this a blatant attempt at bringing in page views? Well, yeah, of course it is. Look, it’s the off-season for the Tampa Bay Lightning, so why not lean into it? Now, that we have that out of the way, let’s talk about the big news that dropped in the NHL on Thursday. As many were speculating, the Toronto Maple Leafs made a change after getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
Was it their new general manager, Brad Treliving? Nope.
Did they trade Mitch Marner? Nope.
Did the owners get together and finally get rid of the man who has been there since the start of their latest rebuild – the president and alternate governor, Brandon Shanahan? Of course not.
Instead, they decided that it was time for Sheldon Keefe, their head coach since November of 2019, to part ways with the organization.
In a slightly humorous turn of events, Keefe was relieved of his duties before his two-year extension, signed in August of 2023, kicked in. According to Cap Friendly, the extension begins in the 2024-25 season, so he can pretty much sit back and relax for the next three seasons while still cashing their checks. It’s a pretty sweet gig if you can get it.
Of course, Keefe is likely to be back in the game before the 2026-27 season, in fact, he’s already been linked to the open New Jersey Devils job by at least one hockey pundit. Keefe will be a hot commodity this summer and could, if he wants to, get a choice of where he wants to coach. Other than the Maple Leafs and Devils, there are three other teams that need a new bench boss: the Seattle Kraken, the Winnipeg Jets, and the San Jose Sharks. It’s also possible that the Carolina Hurricanes may need a new coach if Rod Brind’Amour is lured away once their playoff run is done. Could Keefe’s old boss, Kyle Dubas, be interested in bringing him in to coach the Pittsburgh Penguins? Sure, why not?
Over the last 16 months or so, there has been a tremendous turnover in head coaches in the NHL with 19 teams switching bosses since January of 2023. Marty St. Louis, who has been in charge of the Montreal Canadiens since February of 2022 currently ranks fifth in tenure among head coaches. That’s pretty amazing.
So it’s unlikely that Keefe, who had a 212-97-40 record in 349 games with the Maple Leafs (his .665 Points Percentage is tops in franchise history) will be on the sidelines for too long unless he chooses to be.
Let’s get back to the main topic. How does his firing affect the Tampa Bay Lightning? For the most part it really doesn’t. Outside of the fact that Keefe’s NHL playing career consisted of 125 games with the Lightning from 2000-2003, there isn’t much of a connection. Well, other than the little tidbit that the only round of playoff games that Keefe won as a coach of the Maple Leafs was against the Lightning in the 2023 playoffs. In fact, of his 16 wins as a head coach, 7 of them came against the Bolts. So, you’re welcome.
Removing Keefe as the head coach and replacing him with someone else isn’t likely to change much unless the Maple Leafs completely blow up their roster, which is unlikely. Changing the head coach feels like a last shot at motivating the Core Four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares) to play up to their potential. Looking at their Cap Friendly page shows that the Leafs could run them all back for another year (although filling in the roster would be tough) and if they still can’t get out of the first round next season, maybe the exodus of players begins. Tarvares and Marner would be unrestricted free agents and not signing them would free up plenty of cap space for them to start over.
If they do bring back the same core players, they are likely still a borderline playoff team, which puts them in the same boat as the Lightning, so the two teams will be duking it out no matter who is behind the bench.
Speaking of that, the most likely way this could, on some level, affect the Lightning is that one of their assistant coaches might interview for the open position. Would the Maple Leafs be willing to go with another first time head coach like Jeff Halpern, who has spent the last few seasons at the side of Jon Cooper? Possibly. As much as we joke about the NHL being a retread league when it comes to coaching hires (see Ruff, Lindy) the recent trend has leaned to bringing in some new blood. Ryan Huska (Calgary), Kris Knoblauch (Edmonton), Spencer Carberry (Washington), and Greg Cronin (Anaheim) are all first-time coaches that have been hired over the last year or so.
Or, if they are looking for a coach with a little more experience, Jeff Blashill could be ready to throw his hat back into the ring after a couple of seasons as an assistant coach. With all of the recent turnover, there are plenty of names to choose from that would likely sport a better resume than Blashill, but you never know exactly what general managers are looking for when they hire coaches.
Honestly, Toronto doesn’t feel like the right fit for either Halpern or Blashill, so it’s unlikely Coach Cooper will have to make any adjustments to his staff. Once again, the Lightning are a bastion of stability in a league that almost craves constant change. Coach Cooper has now spent more than a decade behind the Lightning bench, the only current NHL head coach that can make that claim. Despite some disappointing seasons, Lightning management has realized that the alternative isn’t better than what they already have. Will the Maple Leafs learn that the hard way?
