Short-handed goals against and power play efficiency

The Tampa Bay Lightning had one of the stronger power play units in the National Hockey League during the 2010-11 season, and best overall in the Eastern Conference to boot. People feared Steven Stamkos and his booming snap shot. 11 players on the roster all had goals with the man advantage. When the unit was doing as it should, it was outright menacing.

And when it turned the puck over during a power play, it could be an inept monstrosity.

The Bolts power play allowed 16 short-handed goals to opponents last season, the most in the NHL. Part of the blame might be attributed to lackluster goaltending for the first half of the season, but any time you repeatedly hang a goalie out to dry in that situation – be it Mike Smith, Dan Ellis, Dwayne Roloson, or even a Tim Thomas, Ryan Miller, Pekka Rinne or other noteworthy netminders from around the league — they’re not always going to stop a breakaway or an odd-man rush. It’s just the law of averages.

Yet, with these 16 goals allowed on the power play, the Bolts were still ranked sixth in the NHL, and #1 overall in their Conference, with a 20.5% power play conversion rate.

Does that seem odd to anyone else? The fact the Lightning went 69 for 336 – and yet they allowed 16 goals-against on that otherwise potent unit? There’s an unfairness to the fact that rankings were not effected by such a grand inefficiency of allowing so many short-handed goals against (SHGA). In comparison, the Montreal Canadiens – the #2 power play in the East last season – went 57-for-290 on the power play (a 19.7% conversion rate). They allowed 6 short-handed goals, however. If you subtract SHGA from both teams total power play goals, the Canadiens unit trumps Tampa with a 17.6% efficiency to 15.8%.

That’s just one team to compare to. Here’s how all 30 NHL teams would stack up if SHGA were factored against the base power play conversion rate. Note, it’d be possible to factor in shots-allowed during the power play, but I opted to keep it simple in adjusting power-play percentage by just subtracting power play goals for every SHGA allowed:

	Team	Total: GP	PP Opp	PPG	PP%	SHGA	ADJ PPG	ADJ PP%	ADJ RANK	POS CHANGE
1-30 of 30 results.

1	Vancouver	82	296	72	24.3	2	70	23.6	1	0
2	San Jose	82	289	68	23.5	7	61	21.8	2	0
3	Anaheim	82	285	67	23.5	7	60	21.1	4	-1
4	Chicago	82	277	64	23.1	4	60	21.7	3	1
5	Detroit	82	301	67	22.3	7	60	19.9	5	0
6	Tampa Bay	82	336	69	20.5	16	53	15.8	9	-3
7	Montreal	82	290	57	19.7	6	51	17.6	7	0
8	Calgary	82	318	62	19.5	9	53	16.6	8	0
9	Buffalo	82	279	54	19.4	13	41	14.7	16	-7
10	St. Louis	82	279	52	18.6	1	51	18.3	6	4
11	Colorado	82	265	49	18.5	11	38	14.3	18	-7
12	Atlanta*	82	289	53	18.3	10	43	14.9	13	-1
13	Minnesota	82	292	53	18.2	7	46	15.8	10	3
14	Dallas	82	306	55	18	15	40	13.1	27	-13
15	Ottawa	82	257	45	17.5	4	41	16	9	6
16	Washington	82	263	46	17.5	5	41	15.6	11	5
17	NY Islanders	82	302	52	17.2	7	45	14.9	14	3
18	NY Rangers	82	290	49	16.9	5	44	15.2	12	7
19	Philadelphia	82	295	49	16.6	5	44	14.9	15	4
20	Boston	82	265	43	16.2	5	38	14.3	19	-1
21	Los Angeles	82	292	47	16.1	6	41	14	21	0
22	Toronto	82	326	52	16	8	44	13.5	26	-4
23	Phoenix	82	289	46	15.9	6	40	13.8	22	-1
24	Carolina	82	346	55	15.9	6	49	14.2	20	4
25	Pittsburgh	82	311	49	15.8	6	43	13.8	23	2
26	Nashville	82	269	41	15.2	2	39	14.5	17	9
27	Edmonton	82	304	44	14.5	2	42	13.8	24	3
28	New Jersey	82	237	34	14.4	8	26	11	29	-1
29	Columbus	82	301	42	14	11	31	10.1	30	-1
30	Florida	82	267	35	13.1	5	30	11.2	28	2

For the most part, the league rankings stayed rather similar with some noteworthy exceptions. Vancouver’s efficient power play remained #1 overall, and while the Florida Panthers improved it’s ranking, it wasn’t so much that you’d change perception of their underwhelming man advantage play.

There were a few big swings. Dallas, which gave up the second most short-handed goals last season, with 15, suffered most in these adjusted rankings. They fell 13 spots. The Nashville Predators, with an underwhelming power play but an effective and efficient defense, moved up 9 spots to 17^th in the league.

With their SHGA subtracted from their conversion rate, the Lightning still were in a tie for 9^th in the league. That is a testament of the potency the team had while playing a man-up last season. It also makes one wonder if Guy Boucher and company can find a cure for defensive woes while playing with the man advantage, and turn a rather good power play into something fantastic.

Talking Points