We’re back with the second installment of the Lightning’s 10-game report which covers the games from November 4th to the 22nd. The first thing to notice is that they played these 10 games a lot faster than they did the first 10. It took them 24 days to hit the 10-game mark, but only 19 more to hit the 20-game limit. For a team that relies on rhythm and skill like the Lightning, sometimes playing more consistently is better for them.
Was the win-loss record reflective of their play? Kind of. They went 5-3-2 during their latest stretch, and picking up points in 7 of the 10 games did allow them to stay in the playoff race. However, they lost a late lead against Toronto (again), couldn’t beat Chicago despite drastically outplaying them, and were a complete no-show in the one game they played without Nikita Kucherov (a 4-0 loss to Carolina). So points were left on the table.
Still, with Andrei Vasilevskiy still on the mend from his pre-season surgery, all they were looking for during his absence was to stay in touch with the division leaders. After their overtime loss to Winnipeg, the Bolts were 9-6-5 and holding on to the third spot in the Atlantic Division. So, mission accomplished.
While a 49% chance at making the playoffs is nothing to text home about, it is a 9% improvement on where they were after 10 games using the same model. Spoiler alert – their chance have continued to creep up, but that’s a story for the future.
So, how have they improved their chances and picked up big points against teams like Toronto and Boston? Honestly, it’s simple. They’re playing better team hockey. Oh, and Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point went off in the scoring department. First, the team play.
The Lightning were really, really good at generating chances over the last 10 games. In fact, during this stretch of play they led the league in scoring chances (282), high-danger chances (117), and expected goals for (24.92). Unfortunately, they didn’t convert all of those chances into goals and were 13th in actual goals scored at 5v5 with just 19.
Remember, though, goals are a result and Coach Cooper is more concerned with the process. If the process is going well it’s reflected in the number of chances they are generating on a nightly basis and those were all up over the first 10-game segment we looked at a few weeks ago. In games 1-10 they averaged 24.7 scoring chances for with 10.1 of them considered high-danger by Natural Stat Trick. In games 11-20 they were at 28.2 SCF and 11.7 HDCF per game. That, my friends is progress.
Defensively, as a team, the same held true as they lowered their scoring chances against from 23.4 to 20.5 and their high-danger chances against from 9.4 to 9.1. Yeah, that second number wasn’t a drastic improvement and they’re still giving up a few too many per game, but it is in fact an improvement. Hopefully, it only continues. This team has to be better in Game 82 than they were in Game 2, and so far we’re seeing indications that they are on that track.
They were still among the ten worst teams in allowing scoring chances against them with 205 over the ten-game stretch, but it’s way down from the 232 they gave up over the first ten games. Progress, baby, progress!
They’re also likely to get a boost in the goaltending department with the return of Andrei Vasilevskiy. Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins held the fort over the first 20 games, but there were some signs that the play of Johansson in particular was slipping a bit. Over the second set of 10 games, Johansson posted a save percentage of .865 with a goals against of 4.03. He was in net for 36 goals against while the team posted a 25.61 expected goals against number.
Compare that to the first 10 games where he racked up a .922 SV%, 2.73 GAA, and allowed just 22 goals against an expected 27.08. Johansson outplayed expectations for ten games and then was slightly below that standard over the next ten. But again, he gave the Bolts a chance to win every time he took to the ice, and that’s all they needed from him.
The goaltenders were bailed out a bit by the scoring exploits of a young man named Nikita Kucherov. In 9 games (yes, he missed one due to sickness) he put up 18 points (7 goals, 11 assists) to tie Cale Makar for the most in the league over that stretch. Only 2 of Kucherov’s helpers were secondary assists, so he was most definitely driving play for the Lightning.
The usual suspects were atop the points leaderboard for the team during those 10 games as Brayden Point had 14, Victor Hedman had 12, and Steven Stamkos had 11. Even with the bulk of the offense coming from the top players, they still managed to spread things out as all but four players recorded at least one point. And those four players (Zach Bogosian, Conor Sheary, Philippe Myers, Waltteri Meral) all only played a handful of games.
So, this team is getting better, but they still have a ways to go to be considered one of the elite teams in the league. They have the talent, they just need to continue to execute better on the ice and cut down on the mistakes and turnovers. With Andrei Vasilevskiy back in net there are no real excuses for them to not play their best hockey moving forward.
