What if we could take a mulligan on a Tampa Bay Lightning draft, and re-do the picks the team made? Maybe the team isn’t where it is now. Maybe some of it’s future draft picks don’t get made because the team ended up being better and got worse picks in future drafts. Maybe the team has another Stanley Cup in the trophy case. There are lots of trickle down effects that could happen in such a case. But it’s still fun to ask “What If?”
Continuing on the move forward, we get to the 2011 NHL Entry Draft. This is really the first draft of the Steve Yzerman era. The 2010 NHL Entry Draft doesn’t really count due to the fact that Yzerman had been on the job for just a few months and the old scouting staff was left in place until after the draft. Al Murray was brought in as the Director of Amateur Scouting and he made a world of difference in terms of drafting for the Lightning.
Murray had a great history with the Los Angeles Kings, finding gems deeper in the draft like Eric Belanger, Joe Corvo, and Lubimir Visnovsky. He also helped the Kings find Anze Kopitar at 11th overall, Dustin Brown at 13th overall, Brian Boyle at 26th overall, and Michael Cammalleri at 49th overall. He also helped find Jonathan Quick at 72nd overall in the third round.
And here, we get to see one of the greatest draft classes that Murray has ever put together and certainly one of the top classes the Lightning have had in their draft history. Yzerman did some wheeling and dealing during the 2010-11 season and ended up without a 3rd and 4th round pick. Ultimately, the Lightning ended up making six picks with an extra draft pick in the 7th round.
The rules for this Mulligan are that I can only select a player that was drafted within the next 20 draft picks after the Lightning’s selection. This is to give some reality to the possibility of having made the “right” pick according to who was available and who might have been on the draft board at the time. That means that I can’t turn a bust of a first round pick into a super star long shot seventh rounder. Any trades that were made at the draft, including trading draft picks away, can be undone if there is no player worthy of the pick the team traded for, or if there is a star player the team could have selected instead of trading away the pick.
All stats are as of the regular season finale of the 2018-19 season.
First Round, 27th Pick, 27th Overall
Original Pick: F Vladislav Namestnikov, 360 GP, 66 goals, 92 assists, 158 points
New Pick: G John Gibson, 236 GP, 119-77-28, 2.42 GAA, .921 SV%
The Lightning certainly didn’t do horrible with the selection of Namestnikov. But he never quite filled out the promise of a second line center with some play making skills that could sure up the depth chart behind Steven Stamkos. He’s still probably the 5th or 6th best pick from the group we have available, and I did strongly consider Rickard Rakell and Brandon Saad here. Boone Jenner and Victor Rask would probably also be ahead of Namestnikov, though just barely in the case of Rask.
But John Gibson is a talent that’s too good to pass up in net. Yes, I know the Lightning got Andrei Vasilevskiy a year later, but that’s the future and it doesn’t have any bearing on our pick here. Gibson has been a consistently good starter the past three seasons for the Ducks, and if not for a sub-par team around him last year, he probably has an even better career stat line. He’s still just 26 years old and has plenty of goaltending time in front of him.
Second Round, 28th Pick, 58th Overall
Original Pick: F Nikita Kucherov, 447 GP, 188 goals, 274 assists, 462 points
New Pick: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Did you really think there was going to be another pick here? Kucherov has turned out to be the best player of his draft class. While the first round has turned out to be a pretty good group, especially the top 10 picks, nobody in this draft class has more goals, assists, or points than Kucherov. Props to Johnny Gaudreau though as he’s probably the 2nd or 3rd best skater of the draft class and he wasn’t selected until the 4th round. Even with 50-150 less games than some of the other top point getters in this draft class, Gaudreau is still third in points.
Fifth Round, 27th Pick, 147th Overall
Original Pick: D Nikita Nesterov, 132 GP, 9 goals, 24 assists, 33 points
New Pick: D Josh Manson, 335 GP, 20 goals, 68 assists, 88 points
I love Nesterov. He’s a good dude. But he just didn’t pan out in the NHL. Just wasn’t quite good enough. It doesn’t mean he was a bad pick. Of our 21 players to pick from, he is one of only three to make it to 100 games played in the NHL so far. He’s also 2nd in points. Manson has worked out pretty well as a more stay-at-home defenseman type. He did put up 37 points in 2017-18 though with the Anaheim Ducks with 36 at even strength and one short handed assist. But otherwise, he’s been a 15-17 point defenseman which is more indicative of the kind of player he is on the blue line.
Sixth Round, 27th Pick, 177th Overall
Original Pick: G Adam Wilcox, 1 GP
New Pick: D Dylan DeMelo, 210 GP, 7 goals, 47 assists, 54 points
Not a lot to pick from here. Wilcox went the NCAA route and while he had a great career there, he hasn’t translated that into professional success. His one game in the NHL was a relief appearance in 2017-18 for the Buffalo Sabres where he made 14 saves over 39 minutes.
DeMelo isn’t a very sexy pick either, but he’s the best we have. He just turned 26 years old and only has two full seasons in the NHL under his belt. He scored 20 points in 2017-18 for the San Jose Sharks, and scored 22 points last year for the Ottawa Senators in a much bigger role. He went from averaging 14:19 TOI with the Sharks to 19:17 with the Senators.
I must admit though, I was tempted to take Jyrki Jokipakka just because he has an awesome name. But he only lasted 150 games in the NHL with 28 points before going to Europe to play in the KHL the past two seasons.
Seventh Round, 20th Pick, 201st Overall
TRADE: The Lightning trade Marc-Antoine Pouliot to the Arizona Coyotes for this pick. Yeah, I think we’ll keep it.
Original Pick: F Matthew Peca, 59 GP, 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points
New Pick: F Ondrej Palat, 427 GP, 93 goals, 194 assists, 287 points
One of the best seventh round picks the Lightning have ever made was Ondrej Palat with the other big one being Pavel Kubina. The Lightning were lucky that they picked up such a good top six winger at 208th overall. Unfortunately, taking him here does limit our options with our next pick, and we do miss out on a pretty decent player in Ryan Dzingel by taking Palat here. But by the rules of the game, we have to do this.
Peca unfortunately didn’t work out in the Lightning organization after going the NCAA route. He just couldn’t break through the depth chart to find a consistent spot. He was rewarded by the Montreal Canadiens with a two-year contract, but he failed to have the kind of break out year they were hoping for as he scored just 10 points in 39 games.
Seventh Round, 27th Pick, 208th Overall
Original Pick: F Ondrej Palat
New Pick: F Scott Wilson, 187 GP, 19 goals, 39 assists, 49 points
Because Palat was taken so late in the draft, and we took him with our previous pick now, we only have three players to choose from. By default, Scott Wilson is the winner. The other two picks, defenseman Henrik Tommernes and goaltender Johan Mattsson have never appeared in the NHL. Both spent two seasons playing in North America with Tommernes spending two years in the AHL and Mattsson having played a year each in the OHL and USHL. Both returned to Europe after those adventures.
Wilson has had a bit of a journey since being drafted. He spent three years playing for UMass-Lowell in NCAA hockey before turning pro with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in 2014-15. He played 25 games in the NHL over his first two seasons and then made it to the NHL full time with the Penguins in 2016-17 to win a Stanley Cup while producing 26 points in 78 games. The next season same him on the move as he played three games without a point for the Penguins. Then he was traded to the Detroit Red Wings and played 17 games for them without scoring a point. The Red Wings cut bait and traded him to the Buffalo Sabres where he settled back in and recorded 14 points over 49 games. He spent last year split between the NHL and the AHL, but only played 32 total games.
