The Tampa Bay Lightning were one of the best teams in the NHL last season. So far this season, they’ve been far from that. We wrote on Tuesday about how frustrating they’ve been to start the season. Much of that frustration is due to how inept they’ve looked offensively. A team known for high-powered offense has put up multiple games already this year that would’ve been among their worst offensive performances of last season.
So far this season, the Lightning rank 24th in expected goals, which is huge drop from 9th last season. And that drop in offense isn’t met by any sort of improvement in defense. They rank 8th this season compared to 7th last season.
It takes a a full team effort to tank offensive numbers like this. But I was curious to know if the drop was uniform among the roster or if certain players were struggling more than others to contribute the way they have in the past.
To do that, I’ve plotted two metrics. The first is change in individual expected goal rates and the second is the change in on-ice expected goal impacts. Put another way, the first stat measures how the player’s individual offensive generation has changed and the second measures how the player’s impact on the team’s offensive generation has changed. All data for the plot is even strength via Evolving Hockey.
Players in the top right are generating more expected goals and having a greater positive offensive impact on the team than last season. Players in the bottom left are the opposite.
Let’s start with the positive. With most of his teammates struggling, Yanni Gourde has stepped up to try to push the offense. Early in the season, he’s been among the league’s most improved offensive players. Ondrej Palat also looks good here. He’s finally healthy after a long season of dealing with injuries and appears to be benefiting from that.
Aside from those two players, no one else is showing improvement in both areas. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. For instance, even though Mathieu Joseph and Tyler Johnson aren’t generating as much offense for themselves, they’re having a better impact overall on the team’s offense.
But we can’t ignore the problems on this chart. Most noticeable is that Nikita Kucherov is not contributing the way he normally does to start the season. He’s still impacting team offense as he has in the past but he’s not getting nearly as many chances for himself. For a player the team relies on to be its best scorer, that’s an issue. Most of this drop is because he’s taking almost five fewer shots per 60 minutes of ice time. Not shooting enough has often been a criticism of Kucherov during his career, but this time, it’s valid. Making his teammates better is great but in order for the team to succeed, they need him to be the one taking the shot as often as possible.
But he’s not the only star who finds himself bearing some responsibility for the lack of offense. Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman are both off to slow starts compared to last season. Both are shooting less and having worse overall impacts.
Among the depth players, Alex Killorn is having a rough one so far. He’s among the worst players in the NHL in terms of the change in his offensive performance. He formed a dynamic duo with Anthony Cirelli last year both at even strength and on the penalty kill. The teams needs those two to rediscover that level of play.
As we’ve said about everything so far this year, the first 13 games of the season are not worth getting too worked up about. But it would be disingenuous to not acknowledge poor play as poor play. And one of the biggest reasons the Lightning offense is off to a weak start is because their best offensive players haven’t found their games yet.
This team needs Kucherov, Stamkos, and Hedman to get going. Seeing Gourde and Palat perform well is great, but the Lightning aren’t going anywhere without their best players playing somewhere near their peak.
