Is it me or was that the longest offseason in the history of offseasons? It doesn’t matter, because the long, cruel summer is over and the 2023-24 Tampa Bay Lightning season is here. In order to celebrate how about not one, but TWO season previews? First up, since sports fans live in a world of negativity, we’ll take a look at the worst possible way this season can play out for the Bolts. Then we’ll follow it up with a boost of positivity. Sound like a plan? Let’s get to it.
After an inconsistent 2022-23 season where the Lightning managed to still put up 98 points (8th most in franchise history). Sadly, an inability to win in overtime cost them a first round match-up against the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Bolts were dispatched in six games.
The team that will take the ice this season will be missing some familiar faces, and have a slightly different philosophy when it comes to keeping the puck out of the net. So what could possibly go wrong?
Well, how about the most important player on the ice spending the first two months of the season off of the ice? That, unfortunately, is not speculation. Andrei Vasilevskiy, the backbone of the Bolts’ run of success, had surgery at the dawn of training camp and will be out for the beginning of the season. While it’s not expected to hamper him in the long term, it is a back surgery and you never can tell how any athlete will bounce back from that.
As of the time of writing it appears that general manager Julien BriseBois is content to go with a tandem of Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins, two goaltenders that were signed as free agents in the offseason. While it’s nice to break your new toys out of their box and play with them, they were both technically signed to be back-ups, Johansson in Tampa and Tomkins in Syracuse. They are the epitome of an unknown commodity with Tomkins having zero NHL experience and Johansson 35 starts scattered over the last few seasons.
If Johansson isn’t able to lock things down as a number one goaltender, the Lightning could find themselves well behind the eight-ball by the time Vasilevskiy is healthy enough to return to action. The Eastern Conference is going to be a competitive slog of a battle where even the teams that aren’t predestined to make the playoffs will play tough on a night-by-night basis. Even the Montreal Canadians, who will likely finish last in the Atlantic have enough talent to not be taken lightly.
There isn’t a lot in the pipeline if Johansson and Tomkins struggle. Hugo Alnefelt is going to be a good goaltender in the NHL at some point, but we’re still at the point where he needs to be a good goaltender in the AHL. His back up is Evan Fitzpatrick. So yeah, Dwayne Roloson isn’t walking through the door to save the team this year. Since Vasilevskiy isn’t going to miss the entire season, Mr. BriseBois’ hands are tied as far as trading for a true top-tier goaltender.
More Injuries
The roster is pretty thin, which one can expect after a few offseasons of having to shed depth players due to the salary cap. An injury to any of the core players would be a huge blow to this team. There are plenty of options to fill on on the bottom-six, but if Steven Stamkos or Nikita Kucherov find themselves on injured reserve at any point this season, that hole in the roster might be a little too big to be filled.
In the big picture, the Bolts have been relatively healthy during their run. Sure, they lost Kucherov for an entire (shortened) regular season, and various injuries have taken games away from Stamkos and Victor Hedman, but for the most part they’ve been able to count on their big guns to be in the line-up. Take a look at the mess in Colorado to see how injuries can decimate a Stanley Cup contender if you need a comparison.
If they lose someone in the top six, who jumps into that role? Tanner Jeannot? Mikey Eyssimont? Gage Goncalves? In the past, there has always seemed to be at least one player available to serve as the next man up to keep things humming right along. This year, well things look a little more bleak in that department.
The Big Guns Struggle
Along with injury relief, the lack of depth has affected the Lightning’s scoring balance. They were extremely top heavy in their offense last year. It was pretty much the top line, some help from the second line, and that was it. What happens if the top line stutters a bit offensively? Brayden Point potted 51 goals last season. Is that sustainable? If he drops down to 40-45 goals, which is still a really good season, how many wins does that cost the Bolts? Father Time has to catch Steven Stamkos at this point, but at some point age comes for us all. Add in the stress of not having a contract set for next year and The Captain may be gripping the stick a bit tight to start the year.
The Lightning need their best players to be their best players and match or exceed what they did last year in order to have success. Even with a bit longer offseason than they are used to, it’s a big ask.
The New Guys Struggle
One of the reasons having those core guys drop off in production would signal a worst case outcome is because the Bolts are already chasing 67 goals lost in free agency with the departures of Alex Killorn, Ross Colton, Corey Perry, and others. The hope is that they can absorb that loss of offense with an improved defense and that keeping pucks out of their own net is more important than filling the other team’s net. Still, if Tanner Jeannot, Mikey Eyssimont, Conor Sheary, and the other role players can’t boost their offensive game, it’s going to be bad times at Channelside for the next few months.
Sheary, Tyler Motte, and Luke Glendening weren’t brought in to score 20 goals a piece, but it would be nice if they don’t get to 20 goals total there will be a problem. As for Jeannot and Eyssimont, they were good at generating scoring chances in their brief debuts with the team last season, but that’s only good if they start to turn those chances into actual goals. Both had strong preseasons, but they’ll have to show they can carry things over to the regular season or else the top line will be absolutely blanketed with defensive coverage.
The Other Teams are Better
The power dynamic in the Atlantic Division is starting to shift. Boston and Tampa Bay are starting to show their age and some of the rebuilding teams are eyeing playoff spots. Buffalo and Ottawa are going to be a handful this season. Detroit is, at least on paper, better. Montreal, if they can stay healthy, has a robust collection of young whippersnappers eager to score goals. The Bolts only picked up 17 out of 36 points from the four Atlantic teams that didn’t make the playoffs last season. That wasn’t great and at least two of those teams (Buffalo and Ottawa) should be better this season.
The rest of the Eastern Conference will be a meat grinder as well, so it’s probably a good thing the NHL went to a more balanced schedule. Tampa Bay posted a 21-8-3 against Western Conference teams last season and if they can’t duplicate that success again, it’ll be hard for them to rack up the points they need to make the playoffs.
The Result
The Bolts spend all season chasing the playoffs while hanging around a wild card spot only to see the Sabres pass by them in the last week of the season. In the end, they drop too many games they might have won if one thing or another had gone their way. They end up being bad enough to miss the playoffs, but not good enough to regain their 2024 first round pick (which is top-ten protected). No progress is made with the Steven Stamkos contract situation and he signs a four-year deal with Detroit in the offseason. The long slog to mediocrity begins.
