Just as the 2024 NHL trade deadline was ending, the Tampa Bay Lightning announced that they had acquired defenseman Matt Dumba from the Arizona Coyotes for a draft pick.
Dumba was a player that we had taken a cursorily look at when the Coyotes had announced he was being held out of Thursday’s game for “trade-related” purposes. With 4 goals and 6 assists in 58 games for a slightly below-average Arizona squad, it was more of a “that’s interesting, but not sure he moves the needle much” type of look and we focused on other defensemen that the Bolts could possibly acquire on deadline day.
So, of course it was Dumba that ended up coming Tampa Bay’s way, and while we were a bit nervous until the price tag was announced, in the end, it’s not a bad depth move based on the cost (a 2025 fifth-round pick). Is he the player that will automatically vault the Lightning into Stanley Cup contention? Of course not, but short of working a miracle deal for Cale Makar or Adam Fox, the wasn’t a player that was truly available that would meet all of the Lightning’s need (even this year’s Chosen One, Noah Hanifin).
Now Matt Dumba circa 2016-2019 might have been the one, but that’s in the not-so-distant past and would have cost the Lightning way more than a fifth-round pick. So, who exactly did the Lightning acquire?
Again, the gut reaction is to look at that “16” number in the box for defense and immediately recoil in disgust, but let’s not overreact too much. First off, over his career Dumba has been more of an offensive defenseman. Second, his history shows more of a 45-50 ranking on defense. Third, he was playing for Arizona. Yes, they try and factor out team-related impact on these numbers, but, still, it’s Arizona.
Digging deeper, there are some parts of his defensive game that will theoretically help the Bolts out. Switching over to the microdata from All Three Zones, and focusing on the blue (aka the good stuff) shows some elements of his play that the Lightning could use.
The first bar to look at is the “rebounds created” one. The Lightning’s offense relies heavily on shots from the points for deflections or rebounds. Look at what Dumba does at an above-average level – create rebounds. That should bode well for Lightning forwards camped out in front of the net. Following the blue spaces down, he’s solid on zone entries and controlled entries, that’s good. The Lightning can always use more players who can get the puck into the zone.
It will be interesting to see if he does start shooting the puck more during his tenure with the Lightning. With Arizona, he averaged 8.83 shot attempts per 60 at 5v5. While that ranked fourth among Coyotes defenders, there are six Lightning blueliners that have a higher rate. He does have some success rate shooting the puck as only Victor Hedman has a higher 5v5 shooting percentage than Dumba’s 8.00%.
Defensively, he may not retrieve too many pucks, but when he does get the puck, he gets out and doesn’t screw too many up. He can also exit the zone with possession at about a league-average rate, which for a third-paring defenseman is all you can really ask for. He also does a pretty good job of either denying an opposing forward from entering the zone or forcing them to dump the puck in deep.
Most importantly, when a team is pressuring him on a forecheck he is able to recover the puck and start the process on getting it out of the zone. That is something that has plagued Lightning blueliners for more seasons than just this one. He can skate with the puck and that’s what Tampa Bay could use on their defense.
As he’s aged, Dumba has evolved into a more physical player as well. This season he’s averaging 6.45 hits per 60 minutes of play at 5v5, a number that would put him third on the Lightning behind Emil Lilleberg (10.54 H/60) and Erik Cernak (7.73 H/60). He is willing to block shots (3.67 per 60) as well.
There are some intangibles in play as well. Dumba goes from an Arizona team that had faded from the playoff race and often played in front of less than 5,000 fans to a Lightning team in the middle of playoff race in a full arena. That can put a pep in anyone’s step. He’s also playing for a contract. He signed a one-year deal with Arizona precisely for this reason – play well enough with the Coyotes to get traded to a contender and then cash in during free agency in the summer of 2024. He’s accomplished the first part and a strong finish to the regular season and playoff run could help him close out the second part.
Dumba signing a one-year deal last summer and getting traded…where did we hear that before?
Oh yeah. We got that one right.
Signing Matt Dumba was a solid, if unspectacular, move by Julien BriseBois. He’s in a position to help the Lightning (especially if Erik Cernak’s injury from the Flyers game turns out to be bad) and if he doesn’t there is no long term commitment and the price was minimal.
