Capitals at Lightning Preview: The sundown days of a superstar

Game #58 – Washington Capitals (25-21-8) at Tampa Bay Lightning (30-22-5)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s Site: Japers’ Rink

Preview

Make no mistake, Alex Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of his generation. When it’s all said and done, he will likely be among the greatest, if not the greatest of all time. He was, is, will always be a true superstar. Acknowledging that, he is also at the backend of his hall-of-fame career. At 38-years-old, there is more grey in his hair than ever, and the ferociousness that marked the early days of his career has pretty much faded. Twenty-year-old Alex Ovechkin was an absolute bull on skates, as likely to skate through a defenseman as he was to skate around him.

His stat line this year isn’t what it has been in the recent past: 14 goals, 25 assists, 41 points in 51 games. Those numbers that are likely to produce his lowest goal total of his career (although he has already eclipsed his assist total from four of his previous seasons) despite being boosted by a recent six-game goal streak and eight goals in his last eight games. His two-goal effort in the Caps 6-2 win over the New Jersey Devils in their last outing was only the second multi-goal effort of his season.

So, at least for this season, he limps toward Wayne Gretzky’s NHL’s record of 894 career regular-season goals. At 838, and two seasons left on his contract, it still looks like he will get there. It’s not out of the pocket of reason that he kicks in another 8-10 goals this season which will leave him less than 50 to go. Would you bet on him averaging less than 25 goals over the next two seasons even as he approaches 40-years-old? I wouldn’t. Even if he doesn’t make it under this contract, he’ll be close enough to sign a one-year deal just to break the record.

That really is how things goes superstars in any league. There are still flashes of their greatness, the problem lies in the consistency of those flashes. While they once had a strobe-like effect, now they come with the fading frequency of a summer Lightning storm fading into the distance. It happened to Gretzky. It is happening to Ovechkin. It’ll happen to McDavid, Kucherov, Matthews, and Eyssimont. Time is undefeated, so enjoy greatness while you can.

Like their captain, the Capitals appear to be in the final stages of their reign as a perennial powerhouse in the Eastern Conference and have begun the gradual transition to handing ice time to younger prospects. While they are hanging around the periphery of the Wild Card race (they enter tonight six points behind the Red Wings) they are likely sellers at the deadline. Aliaksei Prostas and Connor McMichael are still on their entry-level deals and will likely be the biggest benificeries of ice time if veterans like Anthony Mantha or Nic Dowd are moved in the next couple of weeks.

Ovechkin has made a living tormenting Lightning goaltenders. In 79 career games against the Bolts, he has 50 goals and 45 assists. The only franchise he’s scored against more is the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets with 53 goals in 71 games. As for playing in Amalie Arena, his 18 goals is tied for the second-most scored by an opponent with Eric Staal. Who is number one? Ilya Kovalchuk with 19 in 29 games. Weird fact. The player with most shorthanded goals against the Lightning at Amalie Arena/Ice Palace/St. Pete Times Forum/Tampa Bay Times Forum – Steve Yzerman with 3.

So beware Ovechkin. He might be old. He might not run through players like he used to, but he can still burn you if you let him. Leaving him unguarded at your own peril.

As for the Lightning, they kind of really need a win here. Again, they’re not in must win territory just yet, but they can’t afford to leave too many point on the ice these days. A lackluster effort against Florida, and a better-but-not-good-enough one against the Senators have them on a two-game losing streak at home, something that has only happened a few time this season. Their longest home losing streak was three games back in November, split over two home stands.

Amalie Arena has been their sanctuary for most of the season, so it’s been troubling to see them struggle over their last few outings. In an effort to shake things up, they’ve swizzled their lines in their last couple of practices. The fact that they’ve practiced on both of their non-game days is somewhat surprising in and of itself. Coach Cooper usually likes to sprinkle in as many off days as possible as the season moves into the second half. Maybe he felt the team could use the practice and still get enough rest considering they play just three games over the first two weeks of March.

Those two weeks will see a lot of teams catch up in terms of games played so it behooves the Lightning to bank as many points as possible over the next two weeks. There are ten points up for grab before that lull in the schedule and securing as many as possible, especially considering most of the games are against teams in the Wild Card race, will be important.

They can’t look ahead too much though. Their focus has to be on tonight’s game. Washington might not be the challenge to the Bolts they once were, but they can’t be overlooked either. In fact, the Lightning can’t afford to overlook anyone at this point. They hold the reins to their playoff future, but if they can’t find their winning ways soon, that grip will loosen and they could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Steven Stamkos – Anthony Cirelli – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Braden Point – Mitchell Chaffee
Mikey Eyssimont – Nick Paul – Conor Sheary

Tyler Motte- Luke Glendening – Cole Koepke (?)

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Haydn Fleury – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix

Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Lines per Chris Krenn based on Wednesday’s practice.

Washington Capitals Projected Lines

Forwards
Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – T.J. Oshie

Aliaksei Protas – Connor McMichael – Anthony Mantha

Sonny Milano – Michael Sgarbossa – Max Pacioretty

Beck Malenstyn – Nic Dowd (?) – Tom Wilson

Defenders

Trevor van Riemsdyk – John Carlson

Rasmus Sandin – Nick Jensen

Joel Edmundson – Ethan Bear

Goalies

Charlie Lindgren

Darcy Kuemper

The Playoff Race